Berkshire Hathaway is a one of one, legendary Category Queen of investors.
How do we know this? Its annual stockholder meeting, aka the āWoodstock of capitalism,' looks more like a sold-out concert of Swifties than a gathering of shareholders.Ā Ā
We Pirates were delighted when Berkshire invested in Apple in 2016, just like when the greatest bands in the world mash-up for the 2016 Superbowl halftime show.
This investment was radically different for Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. They famously avoided investing in āthings they didnāt understand,' like technology. Munger literally said, āYou could hardly think of another business that is more un-Berkshire-like than Apple.ā
But Buffett became intrigued when he heard the iPhone had a 95% retention rate.Ā
It reminded him of some of his other famous investments (like Coca-Cola) that had similar āaddiction levelā loyalty. So, Berkshire invested $36 billion. And Apple became the single most successful stock holding in Berkshireās history.
Apple is another OG Category Queen, but will it maintain its position as an innovative, dominating company?Ā
We have a world of respect for Tim Cook, who created massive success and abundance in what was an impossible job of taking over from the most Piratey of Pirates, Steve Jobs. (This was the thank you letter Pirate Eddie wrote after Jobs passed away.)
But Pirate June-Bug whispered something into Pirate Christopherās ear, having come from high on her perch on the pirate ship.Ā
Ā She squawked, āThe winds are changingā¦ā
Ā Berkshire Hathaway reduced their Apple stake by 13% in Q1 of 2024. This is the second quarter in a row that Berkshire trimmed its Apple holdings.
Ā Apple announced a massive stock buyback of $110 billion dollars, which is both the largest buyback in Appleās history and in the history of the entire stock market.
Ā Apple canceled Project Titan, its EV venture, after having invested $10 billion.
What does this mean for Apple, its shareholders, and the categories it dominates?Ā
Letās look at Apple through the Strategy Therapy lens: evaluating it for brutal honesty, courage, and clarity.
Brutal Honesty
Honesty is one of Apple's strengths.
Jobs famously said, āInnovation is saying no to 1,000 things.ā Appleās decision to cancel its EV was disappointing, but we Pirates respected the stance. The company was super honest that a) Tesla and BYD were too far ahead and b) there was no legacy auto manufacturer who could help it catch up. Apple knew it would look bad in the press and it would not be fun to fire/redeploy the 5,000 employees working on it.
But it still shut down the project.
Radical Courage
This area is where we're disappointed with Apple, given the information we have. Pirates generally hate stock buy-backs because it is an admission that executives donāt see anything worthy of investment. The conversation at the leadership level often goes like this:
"Susan, Iām sorry to report that the executive team has run out of ideas."
āSorry to hear that Jimmy. I guess weāll just buy back the stock, and buy our way to market cap growth.ā
Is it truly the case that there was no better use for the $110 billion dollars than stock buybacks? We say, āAvast ye matey! That be a plank ye walking on.ā Thereās too much evidence that there are numerous trillion-dollar markets to invest in:
Ā Electric Vehicles: The automotive market is $2.9 trillion dollars. Only 18% of the market was EVs. Itās just a matter of time before EVs are the majority of sales.
Ā Robo-Taxis/Autonomous Driving: Ark Investment projects ride-hailing via autonomous vehicles to be an $11 trillion dollar market.
Ā Artificial Intelligence: Ark Investments also projects the total AI software market to be $14 trillion by 2030.
Now, the global GDP in 2023 was $27 trillion.Ā
So these numbers might feel insaneā¦
ā¦but welcome to the worldview of Category Design. Itās a world of abundance and massive economic outcomes for the courageous few willing to work on the exponential different. Apple has one of the largest cash balances of any non-financial institution on the planet (over $160 billion), and Appleās free cash flow for 2023 was $99.584B. It is a cash manufacturing plant. Investing in a monster-stacked cake of that size is no mean feat.Ā
And yetā¦
Weāre disappointed to see Apple fold its cards and cash out (so many of) its chips to shareholders.
Clarity
Apple's worldwide developer conference is in June. Tim Cook has teased big plans for Artificial Intelligence. We hope (at a minimum) the team can fix Siri!Ā
When asked directly why Berkshire trimmed its position in Apple, Warren Buffett noted that he expected capital gains taxes to increase in the near future, given the US governmentās debt loads and deficits. He reiterated that Apple was a wonderful business, just like Coca-Cola and American Express are wonderful businesses. And he said he hopes to own all of these businesses for the foreseeable future.Ā
Buffett is clearly not worried the sky is falling for Apple.
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