CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast

Recorded 11/1/2024

Aired 11/5/2024

The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here.  In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns.  They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton.  And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña.  Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead.  Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!

Mentions:

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast

NOAA - CPC:  El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall

Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events

NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features

Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California

Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?

NOAA - CPC:  Three-Month Outlooks

Recorded 9/20/2024

Aired 9/24/2024

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year.  They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest.  They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks.  This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!  

Generational Count = 11

Mentions:

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries

NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS)

The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

RainLog

CoCoRaHS

NOAA - CPC: Outlooks

NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker

IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast

North American Multi-Model Ensemble

Recorded 8/16//2024

Aired 8/20/2024

Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon.  They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September.  Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!    

Mentions:

RainLog

“Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States”

NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

"Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network"

"Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models"

NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks

Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game

AZ Central “Why is the monsoon so unpredictable? It takes a lot to make a good thunderstorm”

Recorded 7/19/2024

Aired 7/23/2024

Get ready for a big episode day as this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the monsoon season.  The crew cover the evolution of the current monsoon phases from onset to where we are today with stats and analysis.  And there is even a bit of a philosophical introspection on the data and sources (do you believe?).  Your hosts share what they have learned along the way - but stick around to the end to get their hot take on what is coming next.  

Also - It’s not too late to sign up for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game as there are monthly prizes this year!

Mentions:

Arizona Institute of Resilience - Power Forecasting Group

 - Monsoon Forecasting Discussion Blog 

 - Contact to get on mailing list = Patrick Bunn, [email protected]

Map - Percent of Average Precipitation (AZ & NM)

RainLog

Climate Reference Network

Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks 

It’s June - which means in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins can officially talk about the monsoon.  Before they deep dive into the 2024 monsoon season, they cover recent conditions from last month, the fire risk and its relationship to the monsoon, and then get right down to business.  The stakes are high with a beer going to which host betters the other in v.4 of the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game this year (sign up today).  

Recorded: Friday, June 7, 2024 

Aired: Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Mentions:

Southwest Coordination Center - Outlooks

National Interagency Coordination Center - Outlooks

Drought.gov - Soil Moisture

North American Multi-Model Ensemble

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center

Tropical Tidbits - GFS Forecast Model

Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene.  In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year.  A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning.  Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems.  Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year. 

2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows

Hannah Friedrich

“Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”

Majerle Lister

“Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”

Lucas Belury

“Flood Justice in South Texas”

Talia Anderson *Unable to attend podcast recording

“What's going on with the rains?”

It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season.  In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon.  Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season?  Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying?  Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!  

Recorded: May 3, 2024

Aired: May 8, 2024

Mentions:

University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications

Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn”

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters”

NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts.  The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season.  And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod!

Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024