Recorded 8/29/2025, Aired 9/2/2025

We are over two-thirds of the way through this year’s monsoon and in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have a bit of a therapy session. They do a round up of July and August which they call the most uninteresting monsoon. There is a deep dive on what is driving this picture of night and day between Arizona and New Mexico.  They give a look towards September with all eyes on the eastern Pacific tropical activity as the wildcard.  They eventually learn to appreciate the subtleties and accept their relationship with the Southwest Monsoon. 

Mentions:

Monsoon Season Station Climate Summaries

Paper: Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

University of Arizona's Weather Research and Forecasting Model (UA WRF)

SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons

NOAA - NWS: Climate Prediction Center

Recorded 07/23/2025, Aired 07/24/2025

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast focus on the current unusual monsoon for the entire episode.  All the ingredients are there - but it is not your typical season.  They cover the southwesterly flow, what the heck is going on with the four corners high, and the low that’s been sitting off the coast of California.  They dive into a recent rain event that was attributed to a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) and how the monsoon has done so far across Arizona and New Mexico which is a tale of 2 states.  Lastly, hear how the hosts are doing on their predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.  

You can still play if you haven’t signed up yet.  August Predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game are due next Thursday 7/31 before midnight - See if you can beat Mike this next month!

Mentions:

NWS - Tucson: Dewpoint Tracker

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): August Precipitation

TropicalTidbits: GFS Model

Recorded 06/24/2025, Aired 06/26/2025

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast we are in the final countdown to the monsoon.  To get us started, host Zack Guido quizzes host Mike Crimmins on his climatology knowledge.  They then cover this past month’s heat ramp up, take a walk down monsoon history over the past few seasons, and look at past conditions as a precursor to get the monsoon party started.  Then close out with our current conditions and what the forecasts are saying.  Will the tropical storm activity be this year’s wildcard?!?

Don’t forget to sign up and make your predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.  Forecasts for July must be entered by June 30 at 11:59 PM.

Mentions:

Paper: “Is the North American monsoon self-limiting?”

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

30 Day-ish Climate Tracking for Southwest U.S.

2025 Hurricane Forecast by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis - University of Arizona

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

International Multi Model Ensemble 

ECMWF: Run AI models yourself from ECMWF open data

Recorded 5/16/2025, Aired 05/20/2025

The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are ready to start counting down the days to this year’s monsoon season.  But before they get into the monsoon preview - they do a final winter recap and review April and May’s weather patterns.  They also cover the fire season so far, and Mike gets to share on his upcoming paper “Changing Climate, Changing Fire: Understanding Ecosystem-Specific Fire-Climate Dynamics in Arizona and New Mexico”.

Stick around for the monsoon discussion at the end so you can be informed - or at least entertained - in time for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game starting next month! 

Mentions:

Paper: “Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation”

National Interagency Coordination Center - National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: 3 Month Seasonal Outlook

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) - Precipitation Forecast

AZ State Climate Office Monthly Webinar Series - NWS Tucson Presentation: 2025 Monsoon Outlook

International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) - Precipitation Forecast

Recorded 3/28/2025, Aired 4/1/2025

For this month's Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins deliver a fully robust episode.  They review the abysmal winter season, breeze through our ‘meh’ March, cover the snowpack conditions and drought situation - which all could lead up to a potentially active fire hazard season.  Stick around for the deep dive into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and what to expect for the seasonal forecasts into the monsoon season.   

Mentions:

Climate Science Applications Program - University of Arizona Cooperative Extension: Station Maps

USDA - NRCS: National Water and Climate Center Interactive Map

Paper: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation”

NICC: National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

U.S. Drought Monitor

PDO Paper: “A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production"

PDO Paper: “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited”

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Outlook Precipitation (JAS)

North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Seasonal Forecast Precipitation (JAS)

Recorded 2/14/2025, Aired 2/18/2025

It’s a new year and in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are looking for good news.  Zack gives a tour of recent statistics for the past few months and Mike goes over the related atmospheric happenings.  They cover La Niña and the climatology of the Southwest during this winter season.  Can we shake off this persistent dry spell and bring on a magnificent March?  Lastly they cover the Santa Ana winds which played a part in the destructive L.A. fires and begin to delve into AI weather modeling and forecasting.

Mentions:

ENSO Blog: February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow? 

Paper: Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity

Scripps: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)

Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC): Climate Perspectives - West

Paper: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Plumes

Billy Idol - State Line: Live At The Hoover Dam

Recorded 12/06/2024

Aired 12/10/2024

In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins slow-roll into the winter season.  They look back on 2024 followed by what happened in November and why - including the Atmospheric River event on the west coast.  They dive into a recent paper that interrogates the expected intensification of cool season precipitation in the west.  And close out with a teaser look at the La Niña outlook and precipitation forecast with a highlight of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).  

Mentions:

Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”  

ENSO Blog: “Can a little La Niña pack a big precipitation punch?”

Related Paper: “A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate”

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

Recorded 11/1/2024

Aired 11/5/2024

The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here.  In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns.  They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton.  And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña.  Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead.  Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!

Mentions:

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast

NOAA - CPC:  El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall

Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events

NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features

Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California

Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?

NOAA - CPC:  Three-Month Outlooks

Recorded 9/20/2024

Aired 9/24/2024

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year.  They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest.  They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks.  This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!  

Generational Count = 11

Mentions:

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries

NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS)

The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

RainLog

CoCoRaHS

NOAA - CPC: Outlooks

NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker

IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast

North American Multi-Model Ensemble

Recorded 8/16//2024

Aired 8/20/2024

Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon.  They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September.  Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!    

Mentions:

RainLog

“Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States”

NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

"Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network"

"Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models"

NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks

Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game

AZ Central “Why is the monsoon so unpredictable? It takes a lot to make a good thunderstorm”