CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast

Recorded 10/01/2026, Aired 10/02/2026 

In this special edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, we have a two-fer: 2026 Monsoon Recap and guest Glenn Lader NWS.  After going out with a bang with a fetch of East Pacific moisture from Hurricane Polo earlier this week, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins put a bow on the official end of the 2026 Monsoon. At the 55:00 minute mark they bring in Glenn Lader, Lead Meteorologist at the National Weather Service Tucson office, to talk about their operations over this past monsoon.  Hear about how monsoon forecasting happens and how they work with partners to mitigate its impacts in the region.  Next month’s episode will be focused on the strong El Niño that has been all in the news.   

Mentions:

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries

Experimental: North American Monsoon Tracker

Colorado State University - Hurricane Seasonal Forecasting 

NWS Tucson - Monsoon Tracker

NOAA NWS - Storm Prediction Center

NOAA NWS - Weather Prediction Center

Recorded 08/13/2026, Aired 08/14/2026

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins get out their mood rings in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast to share their frustration and disappointment in the monsoon so far. They do a deep dive into the characteristics of the monsoon including: the late onset, spatial pattern and population density bias (at least in sentiment).  Will the east Pacific fire up a few tropical systems as far as where the monsoon goes from here? They save time at the end on the bananas El Niño which is unprecedented already and is sure to bring an interesting fall to winter seasonal pattern.  

Mentions:

RainLog

UA WRF Weather Forecast Discussions

University of Arizona's Weather Research and Forecasting Model (UA WRF)

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

Tucson.com "Did global helium crisis ground Tucson weather balloon flights?"

Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts

NOAA Climate Prediction Center - RONI

The Climate Brink - ENSO Dashboard

Dr. Daniel Swain's Weather West channel

Super El Niño Drives an August Weather Shift as Fall and Winter Signals Strengthen

ECMWF Seasonal Forecast

Recorded 07/10/2026, Aired 07/14/2026

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins say ‘get ready’ for an interesting monsoon.  Although the onset has had a sluggish start, the weekend into this week shows promise for a more active pattern in July.  They review the precipitation event that happened at the start of the monsoon on 6/15 as well as the characteristics thus far.  Also discussed is the strong El Niño taking shape and its influence in the region. Expectations are leaning toward a more optimistic yet not normal monsoon. 

Mentions:

NWS-Tucson: Monsoon Tracker

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

CyclonicWx: Model Run - 500mb Height Anomaly - July 2026

Pivotal Weather: Model Run - Precipital Water 

Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries

NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks

Recorded 06/17/2026, Aired 06/18/2026

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the 2026 Monsoon in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast.  The timing couldn’t have been better for a rainy official start date this past Monday.  They discuss the precipitation event and whether or not it was truly monsoonal.  This sets up the discussion for the upcoming monsoon forecast and how a ‘Super’ El Niño might make for an active, yet non-typical monsoon setup.  Lots of resources shared so that you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game which starts at the end of this month - sign up today!  

Mentions:

The University of Arizona Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences cloud camera

NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts

NOAA 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO

NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratory: Multivariate ENSO Index

SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons

Tropical Tidbits: Forecast Models

Recorded 05/13/2026, Aired 06/09/2026

In this special edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have guest Chuck Maxwell join to talk about fire weather.  Chuck brings his multi-decadal subject matter expertise from the world of fire management and answers all the burning questions from our hosts.  Hear how fire management operations work in the Southwest and how climate conditions play into decision making.  You’ll also get to hear what this summer might look like for fire and if the monsoon will bring any relief.  

Mentions:

CLIMAS - Chuck Maxwell Profile

NIFC - Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC) Website

NIFC - National Interagency Coordination Center: Outlooks

CLIMAS - Weather and Climate Information for Southwest Wildfire Management

Southwest U.S. Burn Period Tracker

Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene.  In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year.  A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning.  Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems.  Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.

Lois Ann Polashenski

Alyssa Rosenbaum

A.G. Steig

Talitha Neesham-McTiernan (*Unable to attend podcast recording)

Recorded 05/15/2026, Aired 05/19/2026

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins answer what a strong El Niño could mean for the monsoon.  They do a quick recap of the first half of May.  And then it’s off to the races with a look at: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, ONI vs. RONI, ENSO’s scientific history, monsoon and its interaction with East Pacific tropical activity, then finally a winter preview.  Should be a fun and interesting few seasons to watch unfold!

Also, Zack gives a plug for the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game which will include a new weekly tournament feature this year.

Mentions

NOAA CPC - ENSO Strength Probabilities

Tropical Tidbits

WebberWeather

NOAA CPC - Outlooks

Google - Weather Lab: Cyclones 

Paper “North American Monsoon Response to Antecedent Soil Moisture and Snow in the Colorado Plateau”

Paper “Tropical Ocean Contributions to California’s Surprisingly Dry El Niño of 2015/16”

Recorded 04/03/2026, Aired 04/07/2026

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins go full coroner in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast and do an autopsy of the record-setting March heat wave.  Expect fluid dynamics, conservation of angular momentum, and level of divergence type of nerding for this deep dive. They go over the heat impacts to snowpack and forecasted streamflow, and the end of month precipitation event which looked monsoonal.  Lastly there is some excitement for the upcoming super El Niño that’s brewing.  Stick around on this long-ish one for a full explainer on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - at the 1:02:43 mark. 

Mentions:

Climate Perspectives - Western Region

Paper: “Synthesis of Publications on the Anomalous June 2021 Heat Wave in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada”

USDA - NRCS: Snowpack & Streamflow

RainLog

NOAA - CPC: El Niño Southern Oscillation

NOAA - NCEI: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Recorded 03/03/2026, Aired 03/04/2026

In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins rank their favorite months of the year - and June gets no love.  They recap February’s weather which was high and dry but not much else.  There’s a discussion on ENSO with a deep dive into a couple related papers of note.  And with the end of meteorological winter they cover the bleak snowpack conditions in the west. Towards the end there is a look into the models to see what is on the horizon - including for the monsoon.  Stick around for an announcement on the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game with a lot of new exciting features - you won’t want to miss!  

Mentions: 

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Discussion

Paper: “Southern Hemisphere Surface Warming Drives Southwestern U.S. Precipitation according to AI-Informed Climate Model Simulations”

Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”

USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: NWCC Interactive Map

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts

National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

International Multi-Model Ensemble 

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are kicking off 2026 with a look at this winter’s weird weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast.  They do a recap of the last couple of months of precip and temps.  They do a review of large scale climate patterns - Madden–Julian Oscillation, Greenland Block - and get into a deep discussion about the Polar Vortex.  They cover the not-so-great coverage of snowpack and look at the forecasts through peak season going forward.  Rounding out the episode is the NOAA announcement on RONI (a topic of past episodes) and a preview of the AI focused episode that is in the works. 

Mentions:

Paper: Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies: Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking

Paper: What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather?

Figure 2

Figure 1

Article: Stratospheric Warming Confirmed: Polar Vortex Collapse to Bring Major Weather Disruption in the Coming Weeks

Article: February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem

Article: Snow Drought in the West Reaches Record Levels

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts

NOAA NWS - Public Information Statement: Implementing a Relative Oceanic Niño Index effective February 1, 2026

NOAA NWS - Information Circular: Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

Paper: Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends