Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are kicking off 2026 with a look at this winter’s weird weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast.  They do a recap of the last couple of months of precip and temps.  They do a review of large scale climate patterns - Madden–Julian Oscillation, Greenland Block - and get into a deep discussion about the Polar Vortex.  They cover the not-so-great coverage of snowpack and look at the forecasts through peak season going forward.  Rounding out the episode is the NOAA announcement on RONI (a topic of past episodes) and a preview of the AI focused episode that is in the works. 

Mentions:

Paper: Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies: Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking

Paper: What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather?

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Article: Stratospheric Warming Confirmed: Polar Vortex Collapse to Bring Major Weather Disruption in the Coming Weeks

Article: February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem

Article: Snow Drought in the West Reaches Record Levels

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts

NOAA NWS - Public Information Statement: Implementing a Relative Oceanic Niño Index effective February 1, 2026

NOAA NWS - Information Circular: Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

Paper: Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends

Mentions:

Climate Anomaly Maps and Tables

Recorded 11/07/2025, Aired 11/10/2025

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are enjoying the recent fall weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode.  The hosts recap October which had some pretty interesting storm activity.  There is a summary of the hurricane season - including the category 5 Melissa that had devastating impacts in the Caribbean.  They cover the fall to winter transition patterns.  Then the podcast ends with a discussion on the weak developing La Niña which may or may not relieve the drought pressure with some winter precipitation.  

Mentions:

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts

Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries

Video - Hurricane Hunters pass through the eye of Melissa

NOAA - National Hurricane Center

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO

National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): JFM Precipitation

***If you receive an error message on any of the NOAA websites, try using an incognito browser window

Recorded 10/03/2025, Aired 10/06/2025

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick it off by saying goodbye to the monsoon.  They do a recap of the season with a focus on last month's rain events.  September was interesting to say the least - this leads to a philosophical discussion on whether it is the same flavor as the rest of the monsoon.  The hosts tie up the episode with what’s on the horizon for this coming winter & the ENSO forecast.  

Mentions:

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries

Monsoon Precipitation Totals with Rankings 2025

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

Recorded 8/29/2025, Aired 9/2/2025

We are over two-thirds of the way through this year’s monsoon and in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have a bit of a therapy session. They do a round up of July and August which they call the most uninteresting monsoon. There is a deep dive on what is driving this picture of night and day between Arizona and New Mexico.  They give a look towards September with all eyes on the eastern Pacific tropical activity as the wildcard.  They eventually learn to appreciate the subtleties and accept their relationship with the Southwest Monsoon. 

Mentions:

Monsoon Season Station Climate Summaries

Paper: Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

University of Arizona's Weather Research and Forecasting Model (UA WRF)

SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons

NOAA - NWS: Climate Prediction Center

Recorded 07/23/2025, Aired 07/24/2025

Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast focus on the current unusual monsoon for the entire episode.  All the ingredients are there - but it is not your typical season.  They cover the southwesterly flow, what the heck is going on with the four corners high, and the low that’s been sitting off the coast of California.  They dive into a recent rain event that was attributed to a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) and how the monsoon has done so far across Arizona and New Mexico which is a tale of 2 states.  Lastly, hear how the hosts are doing on their predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.  

You can still play if you haven’t signed up yet.  August Predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game are due next Thursday 7/31 before midnight - See if you can beat Mike this next month!

Mentions:

NWS - Tucson: Dewpoint Tracker

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): August Precipitation

TropicalTidbits: GFS Model

Recorded 06/24/2025, Aired 06/26/2025

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast we are in the final countdown to the monsoon.  To get us started, host Zack Guido quizzes host Mike Crimmins on his climatology knowledge.  They then cover this past month’s heat ramp up, take a walk down monsoon history over the past few seasons, and look at past conditions as a precursor to get the monsoon party started.  Then close out with our current conditions and what the forecasts are saying.  Will the tropical storm activity be this year’s wildcard?!?

Don’t forget to sign up and make your predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.  Forecasts for July must be entered by June 30 at 11:59 PM.

Mentions:

Paper: “Is the North American monsoon self-limiting?”

Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping

30 Day-ish Climate Tracking for Southwest U.S.

2025 Hurricane Forecast by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis - University of Arizona

NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

International Multi Model Ensemble 

ECMWF: Run AI models yourself from ECMWF open data

Recorded 5/16/2025, Aired 05/20/2025

The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are ready to start counting down the days to this year’s monsoon season.  But before they get into the monsoon preview - they do a final winter recap and review April and May’s weather patterns.  They also cover the fire season so far, and Mike gets to share on his upcoming paper “Changing Climate, Changing Fire: Understanding Ecosystem-Specific Fire-Climate Dynamics in Arizona and New Mexico”.

Stick around for the monsoon discussion at the end so you can be informed - or at least entertained - in time for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game starting next month! 

Mentions:

Paper: “Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation”

National Interagency Coordination Center - National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: 3 Month Seasonal Outlook

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) - Precipitation Forecast

AZ State Climate Office Monthly Webinar Series - NWS Tucson Presentation: 2025 Monsoon Outlook

International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) - Precipitation Forecast

Recorded 3/28/2025, Aired 4/1/2025

For this month's Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins deliver a fully robust episode.  They review the abysmal winter season, breeze through our ‘meh’ March, cover the snowpack conditions and drought situation - which all could lead up to a potentially active fire hazard season.  Stick around for the deep dive into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and what to expect for the seasonal forecasts into the monsoon season.   

Mentions:

Climate Science Applications Program - University of Arizona Cooperative Extension: Station Maps

USDA - NRCS: National Water and Climate Center Interactive Map

Paper: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation”

NICC: National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

U.S. Drought Monitor

PDO Paper: “A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production"

PDO Paper: “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited”

NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Outlook Precipitation (JAS)

North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Seasonal Forecast Precipitation (JAS)

Recorded 2/14/2025, Aired 2/18/2025

It’s a new year and in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are looking for good news.  Zack gives a tour of recent statistics for the past few months and Mike goes over the related atmospheric happenings.  They cover La Niña and the climatology of the Southwest during this winter season.  Can we shake off this persistent dry spell and bring on a magnificent March?  Lastly they cover the Santa Ana winds which played a part in the destructive L.A. fires and begin to delve into AI weather modeling and forecasting.

Mentions:

ENSO Blog: February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow? 

Paper: Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity

Scripps: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)

Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC): Climate Perspectives - West

Paper: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Plumes

Billy Idol - State Line: Live At The Hoover Dam