CLOs Uncovered

In Episode 27, Minesh Patel, the U.S. sector lead of leveraged finance at S&P Global Ratings, and Hanna Zhang, the director of U.S. leveraged finance and recovery, discuss Hanna's article titled: Disparities Emerge By Sector, Rating, Company Size, And Debt Cushion.

Key takeaways from the article include:

• Earnings pressures were evident in the quarter as the momentum in revenue growth decelerated. However, the lower-rated 'B' category exhibited solid year-over-year EBITDA growth. To some extent, these entities even outperformed higher-rated 'BB' peers, particularly those operating in subsectors most susceptible to interest rates (homebuilders and real estate), navigating secular headwinds (TV and radio), or facing challenging comparisons (energy and commodity, retail discretionary).
• As the impact of cumulative monetary tightening takes hold, smaller and lower-rated companies face the highest ratings pressure. We found that borrowers with the smallest scale show much worse interest coverage, exacerbated by persistent free operating cash flow deficits. Their particularly weak credit measures differentiate them from larger counterparts.
• About 21% of 'B-' rated borrowers had EBITDA interest coverage of less than 1x in the 12 months ended on March 31, 2023.
• First-lien loans with a 30% or more debt cushion hold a significant advantage over those with a negligible or nonexistent cushion (i.e., a first-lien-only debt structure). We calculated an average gap of about 30% in our first-lien lender recovery estimate between the two. However, having a priority claim ahead of the first lien will result in an average reduction of another 2.5%.

View related article:

U.S. Leveraged Finance Q2 2023 Update: Disparities Emerge By Sector, Rating, Company Size, And Debt Cushion

In episode 30, Minesh Patel, the U.S. sector lead of leveraged finance at S&P Global Ratings, and Hanna Zhang, the director of U.S. leveraged finance and recovery, discuss Hanna's article titled: Disparities Emerge By Sector, Rating, Company Size, And Debt Cushion.

Key takeaways from the article include:

• Earnings pressures were evident in the quarter as the momentum in revenue growth decelerated. However, the lower-rated 'B' category exhibited solid year-over-year EBITDA growth. To some extent, these entities even outperformed higher-rated 'BB' peers, particularly those operating in subsectors most susceptible to interest rates (homebuilders and real estate), navigating secular headwinds (TV and radio), or facing challenging comparisons (energy and commodity, retail discretionary).
• As the impact of cumulative monetary tightening takes hold, smaller and lower-rated companies face the highest ratings pressure. We found that borrowers with the smallest scale show much worse interest coverage, exacerbated by persistent free operating cash flow deficits. Their particularly weak credit measures differentiate them from larger counterparts.
• About 21% of 'B-' rated borrowers had EBITDA interest coverage of less than 1x in the 12 months ended on March 31, 2023.
• First-lien loans with a 30% or more debt cushion hold a significant advantage over those with a negligible or nonexistent cushion (i.e., a first-lien-only debt structure). We calculated an average gap of about 30% in our first-lien lender recovery estimate between the two. However, having a priority claim ahead of the first lien will result in an average reduction of another 2.5%.

Link to the article discussed in the podcast:

U.S. Leveraged Finance Q2 2023 Update: Disparities Emerge By Sector, Rating, Company Size, And Debt Cushion: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/230727-leveraged-finance-u-s-leveraged-finance-q2-2023-update-disparities-emerge-by-sector-rating-company-size-12802865

In this latest episode of our Leveraged Finance & CLOs Uncovered Podcast is out. This time, we discuss how rising interest rates and decreasing consumer confidence led to a downgrade of building material maker LSF10 XL Investments S.a.r.l. (Xella).

In episode 29, Nishit Madlani, the U.S. sector lead for business services and autos at S&P Global Ratings and Ben Hirsch, an associate director within the S&P's U.S. business services team, discuss their latest article titled: Cash Flow Drought, Refinancing Wall Heighten Rating Risks In Business And Technology Services; But Some Sectors Are An Oasis.

Key takeaways from the article include:

• Looming refinancing risks and weaker cash flow prospects amid tight credit conditions will weigh on the business and technology services sector through 2025.
• About 57% of U.S. issuers are projected to generate weaker free operating cash flow (FOCF) in 2023 due to higher interest costs, potentially complicating refinancing efforts.
• With a large majority of the sector coverage rated 'B' or below, we expect an increase in downgrades to the 'CCC' category as distressed exchanges and payment default scenarios intensify.
• Distributors, facilities maintenance providers, and software and information services providers are most vulnerable to downside risks, while providers of education and publishing services, security and safety services, and payment and insurance services remain relatively resilient.

Links to articles discussed in the podcast:

Cash Flow Drought, Refinancing Wall Heighten Rating Risks In Business And Technology Services; But Some Sectors Are An Oasis: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/230627-cash-flow-drought-refinancing-wall-heighten-rating-risks-in-business-and-technology-services-but-some-sector-12768327

What Rising Interest Rates Could Mean For U.S. Business And Technology Services Companies Rated 'B' And 'B-': https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/230118-what-rising-interest-rates-could-mean-for-u-s-business-and-technology-services-companies-rated-b-and-b-12613219

In this discussion, Minesh Patel, the US sector lead of Leveraged Finance at S&P Global Ratings, teams up with the Director of Leveraged Finance, Hanna Zhang, to explore the key insights presented in Hanna's latest commentary, titled "U.S. Leveraged Finance Q1 2023 Update: Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes -- Material Shifts In Key Credit Stats Drove Downgrades To 'B-' And 'CCC', And Upgrades To 'B-'."

Key takeaways from the article include:

• Within 12 months leading to a rating action, higher debt service costs and slower profit growth were often the leading factors in downgrades to 'B-' and the 'CCC' category (CCC+/CCC/CCC-).
• Median leverage for companies downgraded to the 'CCC' category rose to 15.5x as EBITDA all but dried up. It was 8x for entities rated 'B-'.
• We estimate that roughly 37% of 'B' rated issuers employ interest rate hedges. Interest rate sensitivity for 'B-' rated companies is much higher, with roughly 19% employing hedges and 90% floating-rate debt exposure.
• Speculative-grade borrowers may be returning to cash preservation, but 2022 was loaded with shareholder rewards and heavy working capital investment for companies rated 'B+' and higher.
• Issues with recovery expectations within the 50%-70% range account for two-thirds of total new issuance in the first quarter of 2023, although average recovery expectations remain near the low end of the post-2017 average.

The commentary to the related article:

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/230504-leveraged-finance-u-s-leveraged-finance-q1-2023-update-ch-ch-ch-changes-material-shifts-in-key-credit-st-12711927

The hyperlink to the interactive dashboard.

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research-insights/sector-intelligence/interactives/us-leveraged-finance-q1-2023

In this episode Hina Shoeb & Sandeep Chana spoke with Lukas Brockmann about PortaVentura's amend and extend deal and S&P Global Ratings' rationale for considering it as opportunistic. The theme park operator International Park Holding (PortaVentura) extended maturity and upsized its deal while meeting ongoing leisure demands. This is S&P Global Ratings' only cross sector podcast, providing market participants with advanced analytical insights into Leveraged Finance deals overlaying CLOs. We highlight the key features we're seeing in corporate credits, leveraged loans, and sectors that CLOs are most exposed to.

Related Research:

• International Park Holdings (PortAventura) Outook Revised To Stable On Term Loan Maturity Extension
• European Lodging Outlook 2023: A Window Is Opening
• Scenario Analysis: Can European Lodging Companies Sleep Easy About Rising Rates?

U.S. and Canadian companies have been raising prices over the past year or so in an effort to restore margins. A few fully done so, but many others' margins have eroded. In this episode of The Upgrade podcast Hanna Zhang, and Minesh Patel discuss key highlights from our recently published articles, "U.S. Leveraged Finance Q4 2022 Update: Inflation Pressures Hit Margins, Rate Rises To Hit Cash Flow". The report also tracks key credit trends such as profit growth, debt leverage, interest coverage, and free cash flow within our speculative-grade corporate rating universe.

We are happy to be back with a new series of the Leveraged Finance & CLOs Uncovered podcast. In this episode your regular hosts Hina Shoeb & Sandeep Chana talk with Raquel Delgado Galicia about Nord Anglia's (Bach Finance) refinancing on strong footing thanks to improved performance, reduced leverage, & expected organic growth and the credit factors behind the upgrade to 'B'.

On average, during the previous three recessions (2001, 2009, and 2020), about a quarter of 'B-' rated companies were downgraded to 'CCC', 'CC', or 'C' within the recession year, an indication of the vulnerability of the increasingly crowded 'B-' space. In this episode of The Upgrade podcast Hanna Zhang, Dan Hu, and Minesh Patel discuss key highlights from our recently published articles, "U.S. Leveraged Finance Q3 Update: 'CCC' Buckets Pick Up In CLOs As Cash Flow Generation Falls" and "U.S. BSL CLO And Leveraged Finance Quarterly: Is Winter Coming?"