Coffee & Cap Rates: Commercial Real Estate Podcast

On his latest podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, welcomes Ariel Partner Victor Sozio and explores first quarter trends in the multifamily market.  Dollar volume totaled $2.11 billion in Q1 2023, a 39% drop year-over-year, and predominantly free market buildings accounted for 78% of the sales. Headwinds discussed include bank closures, which are causing a credit crunch, rising operating costs for rental buildings and the failure of Albany to pass key legislation that would help alleviate NYC’s housing shortage. For more information about the multifamily market, see Ariel’s Q1 2023 Multifamily Quarter in Review New York City.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and Matt Dzbanek, Senior Director of Capital Services, discuss what borrowers can expect moving forward in the wake of the Fed’s latest rate hike and recent turmoil in the banking sector.

At its March, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise rates another quarter percentage point, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to between 4.75% and 5.00%. The central bank also reiterated its commitment to reduce inflation from the February annual rate of 6% to 2%. In the last year, the Fed has hiked interest rates by 4.75% while at the same time significantly reducing the size of its balance sheet. 

In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses trends in the Queens investment sales market with Founding Partner Michael Tortorici and Director Alexander Taic. Ariel Property Advisors' Queens 2022 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report showed that Queens had a record-breaking year in 2022, with the most transactions on record in addition to surpassing the $4 billion mark in dollar volume for the first time since 2018 and the fourth time overall (2015, 2016 & 2018 previously). Of note, industrial property sales in Queens totaled $850.3 million, which was roughly one third of the industrial sales citywide last year.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, interviews Senior Director Jason M. Gold and Director Daniel Mahfar about the performance of the commercial real estate market in the Bronx in 2022. They discuss the findings of Ariel Property Advisors' Bronx 2022 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report, which showed that the Bronx recorded just under $2.4 billion in investment sales last year, saw an uptick in development transactions before the 421a tax abatement expired last June and that the price per square foot for commercial assets rose above $500 per square foot.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Partner Sean Kelly and Director Stephen Vorvolakos discuss the outstanding performance of Brooklyn’s commercial real estate market in 2022. They highlight findings in the recently released Ariel Property Advisors 2022 Brooklyn Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report, which showed that Brooklyn saw a 28% year-over-year increase investment sales to just over $10 billion, the first time ever the borough has cracked the $10 billion mark in dollar volume and surpassing the previous record of $9.19 billion from 2015. Transactions in the borough also increased 20% from the previous year to 1,226, which is nearly half of all the transactions in New York City in 2022.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Founding Partner Michael Tortorici and Director Howard Raber discuss the performance of Manhattan’s commercial real estate market in 2022 and the opportunities they see in 2023. They highlight the findings of the recently released Ariel Property Advisors 2022 Manhattan Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report, which noted that last year, “Manhattan investment sales strongly rebounded from the Covid pandemic despite headwinds from rising interest rates and economic uncertainty during the second half of the year. Transactions during the year were the most since 2016 with 419 deals totaling $20.9 billion in sales, a 40% increase in dollar volume from 2021.”

Shimon Shkury, Founder and President of Ariel Property Advisors, presented this overview of the 2022 New York City investment sales market and what to expect in 2023 at Ariel Property Advisors’ Coffee & Cap Rates event on February 2. To see his presentation and download Ariel's research reports, please see https://arielpa.nyc/investor-relations/event/latest

At Ariel Property Advisors’ Coffee & Cap Rates event on February 2, Shimon Shkury, Founder and President of Ariel Property Advisors, moderated a panel discussion with industry experts Tom Ortinau, Head of Acquisitions, for GFP Real Estate; Meir Milgraum, Senior Vice President, Acquisitions, Lightstone; and Ofer Yardeni, Chairman and CEO, Stonehenge NYC.

The New York City multifamily sector saw a major resurgence in 2022 with $16 billion in total dollar volume for all multifamily properties (small buildings, buildings with 6-9 units and 10+ units) and $13.2 billion for buildings featuring 10 or more residential units. In this episode, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and Founding Partner Victor Sozio discuss the findings in Ariel’s recently released 2022 Multifamily Year in Review research report, which highlights sales of buildings with 10 or more units citywide and in Manhattan, Northern Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Queens. They also explore the headwinds and opportunities facing the multifamily market in 2023. To read the report, please click here.

In this podcast recorded on December 15, the day after the Fed’s final meeting of the year, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and Eli Weisblum, Senior Director of Capital Services, discuss the Fed’s latest rate hike and what it means for borrowers.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously approved a .50% rate hike at its eighth meeting of the year, bringing the federal funds target range to 4.25% to 4.5%. The latest increase, while still historically large, is more modest than .75% increases over the last four meetings. Although the 12-month change in CPI was 7.7% in October and 7.1% in November, lower than the peak of 9.1% in June, the Fed pledged to continue its restrictive monetary policy in 2023 because inflation remains far above the central bank’s long run goal of 2%.