CommSec Market Update

The ASX200 closed up about 0.7%, marking three consecutive days of gains and a weekly rise of roughly 2.2% after last week’s 2.5% slump. Hotter‑than‑expected inflation (headline 3.8%, core 3.3%) pushed RBA rate‑cut odds down to 24% for May. Materials, health and consumer stocks led the upswing while tech, telcos and utilities fell. Zip jumped 7% and DroneShield 8% after a European defence contract; Temple & Webster slumped 33% on a weak trading update. Looking ahead, US inflation, jobless claims and durable‑goods data, plus the RBNZ, UK budget and Beige Book, will shape market sentiment.

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Wall Street extended its rebound overnight as investors looked ahead to the Thanksgiving holiday and grew more confident in a December rate cut. US Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year slipping below 4% as Hassett emerged as the frontrunner for the Fed’s top job. In stocks, Nvidia fell as its rivalry with Google intensified, while Abercrombie's stock surged despite a general retail pullback. In commodities, oil declined as ongoing Ukraine–Russia talks raised expectations of improved supply. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to extend gains on Wednesday, with key inflation data and New Zealand’s rate decision in focus.

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The Aussie market caught its breath today after yesterday’s strong rebound. We traded in a tight range for most of the session and finished up a touch, enough to make it two days of gains. Miners did the heavy lifting, rising about 1.7% thanks to firmer iron ore and stronger gold prices, while financials slipped roughly 0.7%. Bendigo and Adelaide Bank tumbled more than 7% after flagging deficiencies in money-laundering risk systems while on the other hand, Webjet impressed with record results and lifted 9%. Tonight is packed with US economic data, and tomorrow’s local inflation numbers at 11:30 a.m. will be the major focus, with headline annual inflation expected to push towards 3.9%.

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Wall Street surged overnight as technology stocks powered higher and rate-cut optimism strengthened, with bond yields falling after dovish comments from Fed officials. Elsewhere, Broadcom joined Alphabet in leading the AI-driven rally, while Novo Nordisk slipped on disappointing Alzheimer’s trial results. Oil and gold rose as a weaker US dollar provided support. Back home, Aussie shares are set to extend gains on rising commodity prices. Meanwhile, Trump said he plans to visit China.

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The ASX200 jumped 1.3% on Monday, snapping a week of declines and lifting the index to within 6.5% of its October record high. Tech and industrial stocks led the rise, while energy fell as oil slipped. Notable moves included Qube soaring 19.5% on a $11.6 bn Macquarie offer and DroneShield edging higher despite a steep MTD loss. Investors will watch Wednesday’s inflation print, the US Fed rate decision on 10 Dec, and a busy roster of AGMs later in the week.

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US stocks staged a spirited recovery following Thursday’s drubbing, helped by comments from the New York Fed governor that signalled support for interest-rate cuts. Healthcare stocks led sector gains, with Eli Lilly up 1.6%, while Nvidia climbed on renewed optimism for its China sales outlook. In commodities, oil prices ended lower on Friday, settling at one-month lows. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to rebound on Monday from five-month lows.

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The Aussie market ended the week in the red, falling 1.6 percent after touching a six month low at the open, with a hotter US jobs report keeping investors on edge ahead of the Fed's December decision. Wall Street's weak lead weighed on every major sector locally, especially materials and energy, while the major banks extended their recent slide. Lovisa sank on softer like for like sales, while WiseTech was one of the few winners after reaffirming guidance at its AGM. With November now shaping up as the ASX's worst month in more than two years, attention turns to next week's backlog of US economic data and local inflation figures.

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Wall Street slumped late in the session with the S&P 500 erasing a 2% gain as Nvidia led the sector lower. Nvidia turned negative, unwinding its post-earnings rally, while Palo Alto Networks announced plans to acquire Chronosphere. Walmart lifted its outlook, and U.S. data showed solid September job gains even as the unemployment rate ticked higher. In commodities, oil dipped on renewed hopes for a Ukraine–Russia peace plan, gold fell as strong U.S. jobs data dimmed the prospects of a December rate cut, and iron ore retreated on supply-glut concerns. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to drop amid a spike in volatility, while a risk-off tone weighs on the Aussie dollar.

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The ASX200 jumped 1.3% on Thursday, its best day in weeks, driven by a strong recovery in global stocks and NVIDIA’s better‑than‑expected earnings and upbeat revenue guidance, which lifted Australian tech shares about 2.4%. Energy and utilities fell modestly, while materials and real‑estate rose. Looking ahead, the market will watch US September jobs data and the Fed’s December rate‑cut odds, plus a busy roster of AGMs and an RBA Assistant Governor address.

The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

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Wall Street gave up early gains as investors turned cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, while the latest Fed minutes showed many officials leaning against a December rate cut. Elsewhere, Alphabet shares jumped on rave reviews for its new Gemini AI model, Lowe’s beat profit estimates on strong online growth, and Target’s scaled-back outlook signalled a tougher road ahead for its incoming CEO. In commodities, oil slumped on a US inventory build while copper rebounded on supply concerns, and the US dollar climbed to a five-week high. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to edge higher ahead of a busy week of AGMs.

The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.