Conversations with Bill Kristol

What is cybersecurity? How has cybersecurity become integrally connected to our national security? What has the War in Ukraine taught us about the vulnerabilities we face? What kinds of cyber threats should we be prepared to meet in the future?To discuss these questions, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. As Hansen explains, cybersecurity can be understood as the safety, reliability, [and] availability of the technology that has transformed our lives in the past decades. Hansen argues that we have done reasonably well in securing the technologies we rely on. But as we are ever more reliant on technology, we increase our potential vulnerability to threats posed by rogue states and by criminals. To meet future challenges, Hansen advises us to think of cybersecurity as a dynamic and evolving process, in which both private companies and the government must do what is necessary to anticipate threats and maintain supremacy in technology.

What did the midterm elections reveal about Donald Trump’s strength in the Republican Party? What are the central tensions in the GOP as we head into 2023—and what are Trump's chances to win the nomination in 2024? Might Republican elected officials, donors, and other elites coalesce around an alternative candidate like Ron DeSantis? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, the unmistakeable pattern of losses by MAGA-aligned, election-denying candidates indicate that Trump’s position in the Party is weaker than before. But unwavering support from what Ayres calls the Always Trump faction of the Republican electorate still gives Trump a significant advantage heading into 2024. However, developments in 2023, including decisions of Republican elites to mobilize on behalf of a single challenger to Trump, could prove decisive. Kristol and Ayres also discuss how Democrats might respond to the prospect of a third Trump candidacy, and how that might affect Joe Biden’s decision to seek reelection.

What happened in the midterms? What can explain why the 2022 midterm elections defied expectations and countered the trends of recent history? Will Trump be challenged successfully for the Republican nomination? Will Biden run again?

Eight months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? According to Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Ukraine’s stunning battlefield achievements have dramatically altered the dynamic of the war. As he puts it, Russians no longer have the ability to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine. That’s over. Russians have fundamentally gone over to the defensive. But serious challenges remain. Ukraine can reconquer or secure several strategically significant territories, without which Ukraine will remain highly vulnerable to future Russian attacks. The questions emerging from the war are momentous: What will come of Putin’s nuclear threats? Is there an “off ramp” from the conflict? Are we in a new Cold War? Kagan’s thoughtful examination of the present situation and reflection on its consequences help us see how a Ukrainian victory is necessary for the free world.

Iran today is in some kind of revolutionary stage…. All social classes are united behind the idea that they want the extinction of the regime, and all social classes seem to be united on the proposition that reform is not possible. So argues Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. In this Conversation, Takeyh analyzes the momentous events in Iran following the killing of the 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police last month. As Takeyh argues, the regime faces the greatest threat to its rule since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Takeyh shares his perspective on the complex political, social, and security dynamics in Iran and what to look for over the next weeks and months. Kristol and Takeyh also discuss what the US and the West should do to give the protest movement the best chances to succeed.

After the historic Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, what should we look for as the Supreme Court begins a new term? How will the Court handle controversial subjects such as affirmative action and religious freedom? How should we understand the current Court’s jurisprudence? To discuss these questions, we are joined by University of Chicago law professor William Baude. According to Baude, with its emphasis on originalist jurisprudence, the Court has become more willing to take bold actions—and likely will continue to do so this year. Yet Baude argues that the centrality of the Court today in settling the most controversial matters in our politics is as much a consequence of the failures of Congress as the judicial philosophy or temperament of Supreme Court justices. Kristol and Baude also discuss similarities and dissimilarities with eras like the New Deal when the Court acted as a counter-majoritarian force against a popular and unified Congress. Kristol and Baude also consider the threat of election subversion, a theme Baude addressed in greater depth in a memorable and important Conversation last year.

How has the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade affected the course of the 2022 midterm elections? How has it affected the standing of the two political parties? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Brookings Institution Senior Fellow William Galston. According to Galston, the galvanizing effect of the Dobbs decision on Democratic voters has eaten into the advantage the out-of-power party typically has in an off-year election. Swing voters who view Republicans as too far from the mainstream on abortion, and other issues, threaten to upend GOP hopes of a Red Wave in November. At the same time, Galston reflects on the Democrats own vulnerabilities, particularly on cultural issues, which could hurt their electoral chances in November and beyond.

Where do things stand in Ukraine six months into the war? How have the United States, Britain, and NATO contributed to the war effort to this point? What more could we do in the months ahead? What broader lessons should we draw? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Tom Tugendhat, Conservative MP for Tonbridge and Malling and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the British parliament. According to Tugendhat: the end result is clear. The courage and commitment of the Ukrainian people means that Ukraine will not and cannot be a Russian satellite or a Russian colony again. Nonetheless, as he argues, America, Britain, and the rest of the NATO allies must continue to support Ukraine on the military and diplomatic fronts to ensure a successful outcome. Tugendhat and Kristol also consider lessons we might learn from the new geopolitical situation we face following the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. On this front, Tugendhat presents a compelling case for strengthening the alliance of free states around the world for the sake of our own security and prosperity and for the security of the world at large.

Why do great cities rise and fall? Why have cities been pivotal to the dynamism and growth of America's economy? What are the threats cities face today—and what can we learn from history about how best to help our cities thrive? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Ed Glaeser, chairman of the Department of Economics at Harvard University, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and one of the world’s leading experts on the economics and politics of cities. Glaeser explains that cities benefit from and encourage the human desire for proximity to one another, which can lead to new ideas, the transmission of discoveries, and entrepreneurship. But cities also are vulnerable to stagnation and decline, particularly when entrenched interests engage in "rent-seeking”— policies that keep newcomers down or out. Glaeser notes that we should avoid the temptation to develop a rigid set of policy prescriptions for every city, or to believe we know precisely how to plan cities or neighborhoods. Rather, he argues, we should favor policies that encourage innovation and development, and do not restrict the opportunity for people to cluster in the urban areas they choose.

What have we learned about Donald Trump’s influence on Republican elected officials, candidates, and voters through the primary season? What are the central tensions in the party as we head toward the midterms and 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, Donald Trump remains the center of gravity in the Republican Party and is broadly popular among party regulars. And yet there is a majority of Republican voters Ayres calls “Maybe Trump” who might be willing to consider an alternative in 2024. Ayres points to how some Republican elected officials have successfully managed to avoid Trump’s insistence on denying the outcome of the 2020 election—and considers possible paths forward for the party that would allow some distance from Trump. Kristol and Ayres also discuss Republican prospects in the House and Senate in 2022 in light of issues including abortion, Joe Biden’s approval, and the quality of candidates in both parties.