Conversations with Bill Kristol

t’s 14 months before the presidential election. With a Trump v. Biden matchup on the horizon, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville begins with a bracing assessment: “If this election was this November…Biden would be a betting underdog.”

In this Conversation, James Carville shares his concerns about Biden’s candidacy and his perspective on the race ahead. Should other Democrats challenge Biden and get into the primary race? Is Trump inevitable on the Republican side? What factors might confound our expectations? In this witty, wide-ranging, and thoughtful Conversation—our 250th episode!—Carville and Kristol reflect on these questions and other factors that might upend our politics as we head toward the 2024 presidential election.

As we release episode 250, we want to thank our viewers and listeners who have been with us since the beginning—and those who are joining us now. It’s been quite a time. And we have no intention of slowing down. 

How has American strategic analysis and policy planning toward China developed over the last few years? What parallels can we draw between the early Cold War and America’s geopolitical situation today? How has the war in Ukraine affected US-China competition?  

To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Stephen Rosen, Harvard professor emeritus of government. Rosen argues that American government and civil society are beginning to take geopolitical competition with China much more seriously. He notes that, much like the Korean War, Putin’s War in Ukraine could serve as a galvanizing event that could lead the US to make the kind of economic and political commitments necessary to deter China in the long term. In a wide-ranging and historically rich Conversation, Rosen explains why talent, technological innovation, and forward-thinking military planning all will be essential for America to meet the China challenge.    

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field after the first debate? How strong is Trump? How have the other candidates done so far? How might the Trump trials affect the race as we head into primary season?   

To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. Though Trump remains the strong favorite, Ayres argues that the forthcoming trials make the race more unpredictable than it might seem from simply reading current polling data. Ayres and Kristol also assess the debate performances and candidacies of Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy—and consider what each might have to do to break out in the race and take on the frontrunner.

How significant is the indictment of Donald Trump in the Jan 6 case? How might the case play out in court, and in our politics?

According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog, the indictment in the Jan 6 case is a momentous development in the legal maelstrom Trump faces, with potentially significant consequences for the 2024 election. Goodman argues that the Jan 6 case likely will differ dramatically from the Congressional hearings—not least because key figures including former Vice President Mike Pence, Rudy Giuliani, and Mark Meadows will be compelled to testify in court. Goodman suggests that the prosecution may succeed in “flipping” some in Trump’s inner circle to become cooperating witnesses in the case. Cautioning that much remains unknown about the timeline, and the political ramifications of it, Goodman argues it’s plausible a trial and verdict might occur before the 2024 elections. 

With the recent rollout of ChatGPT and the development of other generative artificial intelligence, the future of AI—and its potential implications for national defense, economics, and society—has become a topic of urgent inquiry.

To discuss where things stand with AI, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. Hansen explains the breakthroughs achieved over the past decade, and the profound implications that powerful software and computing have brought to domains from language translation and music to medicine, national security, logistics, and other dynamic areas of the economy. Noting the potential of AI for use as well as misuse, Hansen explains why we need to develop thoughtful safeguards in the development of new technologies. According to Hansen, already we are benefiting from just the "low hanging fruit"—as seen in the developments in language translation and other generative AI available today. But the potential for breakthroughs in other fields likely are closer than might have been imagined just a few years ago.

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field? Is Trump inevitable, or could DeSantis or another candidate prevail? What do voters, donors, and party officials think of the prospects of a Trump v. Biden rematch as we head toward 2024?  

To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. The broad contours of the race on the Republican side, by the numbers, have been remarkably stable since November—and at the same time the months ahead could be unusually unpredictable. According to Ayres, Trump must be considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination especially as Ron DeSantis, who had gained ground after his landslide victory in the Florida gubernatorial race, has faded in recent months. Nonetheless, Ayres contends that Trump’s nomination is far from a foregone conclusion. The current and possible criminal indictments of Trump could matter, and other possible Republicans could gain momentum. Ayres and Kristol consider the prospects of the various Republican candidates, discuss possible surprises over the next six months, as well as the question of Biden's renomination—and reflect on why 2024 may not follow familiar patterns of past elections.

How did American politics become so polarized—and what are the key fault lines today? In an evenly-divided electorate, what are the implications for the political parties as we look ahead to 2024 and beyond? Is there a way out of hyper-partisanship and deadlock, and toward moderation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director for President Bill Clinton and author of a recent memo The Road to a Political Realignment in American Politics. As Sosnik puts it: In a sharp contrast to a previous era, college educated voters are now more likely to identify as Democrats, and those without college degrees – particularly white voters, but increasingly all Americans – support Republicans. Voting at all levels of federal and state elections demonstrates this overwhelming trend of the diploma divide. Whereas in the past the axiom that all politics is local rang true, these days the more accurate truism is that all politics is national. Sosnik draws out the implications of this divide for 2024 and beyond. He argues that the nature and intensity of our polarization means the premium for attracting swing voters, and not repelling them, is greater than ever. In sum, he argues that—more than any other single factor—the voters who decide the next elections will put a premium on candidates who are not crazy!

What is the substance of the federal indictment against Donald Trump for mishandling classified documents? How could the case play out in the legal system, and in our politics? Are future indictments likely? Could these matters alter the political landscape in advance of the 2024 elections? According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog, the indictment of Donald Trump is a momentous development. Trying the case against Trump will be complex, Goodman argues, because of uncertainties—the presiding judge, the classified nature of the material, and how close we are to 2024—which could introduce some wild zigs and zags to the case. And yet, he argues, it is possible there could be a trial by next summer. Goodman argues that other indictments likely are forthcoming, too. Cases against Trump for his role in January 6th, as well as electoral fraud, also might be heard in advance of the election—possibly featuring testimony from key figures in Trump’s inner circle like Mike Pence and Mark Meadows. Much remains unknown, but Goodman contends that there will be a lot to follow on these matters in the months and year ahead.

How should we think about immigration in American life today? How well do today’s immigrants do—economically and culturally—compared to the immigrants of previous eras? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Princeton economist Leah Boustan. Drawing on rigorous analysis of data for her important co-authored work in economic history Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success, Boustan explains a perhaps surprising fact: despite all of the differences between contemporary America and that of past generations, immigrants today are faring similarly to previous immigrants in terms of how quickly their earnings grow after they arrive in the country, and especially in terms of how well their children are doing in their own upward mobility and earnings. Moreover, Boustan explains how today’s immigrants are assimilating culturally in much the same way as in earlier eras. Boustan considers the challenges and benefits of immigration in the context of the broader economy—and pushes back against arguments for the restricting of immigration that rely excessively on analysis and data that consider only very short-term implications. Above all, she argues that immigration, then and now, has been in the United States an astonishing story of success.

What did we learn about Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign from last week’s CNN town hall? How should we assess Ron DeSantis’s prospective candidacy so far? What are Joe Biden’s strengths and weaknesses as we head into the 2024 race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. Stoddard shares her perspective on why Trump remains the force in the Republican field—and how DeSantis has yet to live up to early expectations. Turning to the Democrats, Stoddard explains how outperforming expectations in the 2022 midterms helped Joe Biden to secure a lock on his party’s nomination. Nonetheless, she notes that many Democrats remain jittery about Biden’s age and prospects. As things stand, she argues, the improbable rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump seems likely despite being unpopular across a broad swath of the American public.