From the pervasive role of AI in both equity and debt markets, to a macroeconomy increasingly driven by geopolitics, financial advisors face a new reality: long-term returns rely on preparing for the unexpected. True resilience requires a globally diversified approach both to generate returns and absorb macro shocks. Dan and Greg analyze these dynamics against today's core uncertainties: the Iran conflict, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and the capex “supercycle” powered by AI, defense, and global re-shoring and supply chain realignment.

Show notes:

(4:30) How politics are shaping economics

(11:50) Planning beyond the base case

(17:00) Why today’s bond math is favorable

(21:00) The Iran conflict & global diversification

(33:00) The state of U.S. creditworthiness

(38:00) Optimism and uncertainty around the CapEx super cycle

(49:00) The start of the credit default cycle

(54:00) The tipping point in financial engineering

If you enjoyed the episode, check out our other resources below:

• Read: Secular Outlook: Rupture and Resilience

• Video: Precision Over Prediction in Today’s Bond Market

• Podcast: Money and Politics: Richard Clarida and Libby Cantrill on the New Fed Chair, Iran Conflict, and the 'Stag vs the Flation (Apple and Spotify)

• Podcast: PIMCO Perspectives: When Geopolitics Becomes an Economic Input (Apple and Spotify)

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