Daniel Davis Deep Dive

'How can we negotiate with those resorting to terrorism?'

Russian president Vladimir Putin asks how any deal can be done with those funding and essentially directing terrorism.

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President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he had a 90-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which they discussed the Ukraine war. Putin reportedly warned Trump of a coming response to a recent Ukrainian attack on Russia’s strategic bomber force. International relations scholar John Mearsheimer reacted strongly, saying the situation is worsening on multiple fronts: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, and East Asia. He argues the U.S. has lost control over allies and adversaries alike, and criticizes Trump for failing to resolve major global issues he once promised to fix.

Mearsheimer warns that the Ukraine conflict, especially recent Ukrainian (and potentially U.S.-supported) strikes on Russia’s nuclear infrastructure, risks dangerous escalation. He condemns the use of the term "terrorism" to describe Ukraine’s military actions, but stresses that Russia may see these as justification for serious retaliation. Given the rising desperation and anger in Moscow, he expresses growing concern that the war could eventually trigger Russian use of nuclear weapons, particularly if they feel cornered or unable to win conventionally. The overall tone is one of alarm about America's strategic direction and growing global instability.

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Strategic Silence: Trump’s lack of public response is seen as a way to protect a joint operation or maintain diplomatic positioning.

Mixed Messaging: While Trump criticizes Russia for attacks, he has been silent on Ukrainian counterstrikes. His strategy seems inconsistent or unclear, possibly attempting to pressure both sides.

Desire for Peace Talks: Trump is serious about facilitating negotiations in Istanbul and is willing to be personally involved if it could help.

On Ukraine’s Position

Posturing at Talks: Ukraine's delegate Umarov made strong demands for a ceasefire and humanitarian steps—knowing full well Russia has repeatedly rejected a ceasefire-first approach.

Pressure on Trump: Some see this as Ukraine trying to force Trump away from negotiations and back into the Biden-era military support and sanctions approach.

On Russia, Sanctions, and War Dynamics

Russia Unfazed by Sanctions: Despite years of “crippling” sanctions, Russia’s economy has endured, aided by trade with China, India, and others. Sanctions have failed to weaken Russia meaningfully.

Sanctions Hurt the Poor: Sanctions primarily affect the most vulnerable in the targeted nations while leadership remains insulated.

Negotiations Over Sanctions: The speaker advocates for diplomacy instead of continued reliance on ineffective sanctions.

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President Trump recently announced the development of a new missile defense system called the Golden Dome, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome. He claimed it would integrate with current U.S. defenses, be operational within three years, and even intercept missiles from space or across the globe. He emphasized its importance for national survival, noting Canada might join the project.

However, Professor Ted Postol, a former MIT professor and expert in missile defense, strongly criticized the plan, calling it unrealistic and technologically unfeasible. He compared it to Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) or “Star Wars” from the 1980s, which also promised futuristic missile defense but failed due to major technical shortcomings—issues that still persist today.

Postol recounted his experience with SDI, where exaggerated claims, political enthusiasm, and poor scientific validation led to deeply flawed policy decisions. He described how untested and theoretical technologies, like the X-ray laser, were hyped up and presented as game-changers despite never working. This led to what he called a “hallucinatory” policy environment where major Pentagon decisions were driven by fantasy rather than feasibility.

The discussion warns that the Golden Dome may repeat past mistakes: overpromising unproven technology, misleading policymakers, and ultimately wasting resources on a system unlikely to perform as advertised.

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The recent meeting in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine, typically expected to move toward peace, appears to have had the opposite effect. Rather than progressing toward an end to the conflict, both sides presented proposals that made a negotiated settlement even more unlikely, signaling a continuation—and possible escalation—of the war.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor argues that:

The summit was a charade: He believes only Russia is serious about ending the war, while Ukraine’s leadership is entrenched in denial and pursuing unattainable goals.

Ukraine's military is collapsing: Citing massive casualties (upwards of 1.5 million dead) and recent resignations from high-ranking Ukrainian military officials, Macgregor contends that Ukrainian forces are on the verge of collapse.

Zelensky's strategy is to drag in the U.S. militarily: Like Netanyahu in Israel, Zelensky is not seeking peace but rather trying to provoke deeper American military involvement by painting a narrative of strength and momentum.

Drone attacks inside Russia (e.g., Operation Spiderweb) are described as symbolic and aided by U.S. and UK intelligence, but militarily insignificant.

Zelensky’s demands (Russia gets nothing, no territorial concessions) are viewed as delusional and designed to make peace talks impossible.

The West, particularly Washington, is focused on optics: The real strategy is shaping perceptions to keep support flowing, even if the reality on the battlefield is bleak.

In conclusion, Macgregor suggests that current diplomacy is performative and detached from battlefield realities, with the primary goal being to manipulate Western narratives and keep international support for Ukraine alive, despite the crumbling situation on the ground.

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Key Points:

Ukrainian Drone Attacks:

Ukraine targeted five Russian air bases, destroying at least 13 strategic bombers (e.g., TU-95s).

Ukraine spent 18 months preparing the attack, even smuggling and assembling equipment inside Russia.

Despite media hype, the Russian military capability remains largely intact; they have ~87 strategic bombers, so operational capacity is not significantly affected.

Western Media & Zelensky's Narrative:

Zelensky claimed the operation was a major success and a turning point, pushing Russia toward diplomacy.

The speaker criticizes Western media for overstating Ukraine’s successes and underreporting Russian advances.

Satellite imagery disproved earlier Ukrainian claims that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed.

Peace Talks & Diplomatic Reality:

Zelensky claimed Ukraine forced Russia into peace talks, but the speaker counters that Putin proposed direct talks on May 11.

Russia has long expressed interest in negotiations (dating back to 2014 and the Minsk agreements), whereas Zelensky passed a law banning negotiations with Putin.

Military Reality on the Ground:

Russia has been gaining territory steadily since October 2023.

Ukraine is losing troops and lacks the manpower and industrial capacity for a long war of attrition.

Tactical victories like "Spiderweb" have limited strategic impact if not backed by broader battlefield success.

Criticism of Western Support:

The speaker argues the West, particularly Europe and the U.S., continues to support Ukraine based on idealistic or misleading narratives, rather than hard strategic calculations.

Suggests the West should focus on its own interests, not blindly back Ukraine.

Zelensky’s European Tour:

Zelensky attended a summit in Vilnius, continuing to pitch Ukraine as the defender of Europe and highlighting the superiority of Western and Ukrainian weapons.

The speaker views this as emotional rhetoric rather than a reflection of strategic reality.

Conclusion:

The speaker urges a reality-based assessment of the war, challenging overly optimistic Ukrainian and Western claims. While Ukraine’s drone strike was tactically impressive, it does not alter the strategic trajectory of the war, in which Russia continues to advance and maintain overwhelming advantages.

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Recent Strikes: Ukraine carried out strikes shortly before peace talks in Istanbul, which may provoke a harsher Russian response.

Negotiation Dynamics: Ukraine expected Russia to share its memorandum before the meeting, but Russia insists it will only share it during the talks.

Russia's Stance: Russian officials have clearly stated this may be the last chance for a diplomatic solution. If not accepted, Russia will aim to win militarily.

Power Imbalance: The speaker highlights Russia's superiority in manpower, equipment, and resources, arguing Ukraine cannot realistically win on the battlefield.

Possibility of Escalation: The speaker suggests Russia might replace the memorandum with an ultimatum and warns of the possibility of a large-scale military escalation.

Western Influence: There is speculation that some Western powers and possibly Zelensky might want to prolong the war to avoid a negotiated settlement that favors Russia, especially ahead of a potential Trump presidency.

U.S. Military Aid Limits: The U.S. has signaled it cannot continue supplying Ukraine at previous levels, contradicting any hopes for renewed heavy support.

Russian Restraint and Future Targets: Russia has seemingly held back from hitting major Ukrainian political and intelligence targets, but that may change in retaliation for the recent attacks.

Overall, the tone is critical of Ukraine and the West, portraying Russia as being methodical and serious about forcing an end to the war on its terms.Explore the podcast

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Military Situation & Strategy:

Russia's gains on the battlefield are not just about territory but about weakening Ukraine's armed forces through a war of attrition.

The Ukrainian defensive lines are thinning, while Russia maintains a numerical advantage and continues to reinforce.

Russia uses missiles, drones, artillery, and glide bombs to target Ukrainian manpower and logistics.

Russian Strategy:

Russia is focused on winning the war, not negotiating, unless on its terms.

Their doctrine prioritizes manpower destruction over territorial gain.

The Kremlin is acting consistently at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels to achieve total victory.

Diplomatic Developments:

A potential peace negotiation is being discussed for June 2 in Istanbul, but Ukraine hasn’t confirmed participation.

Trump administration claims to support negotiations, encouraging both sides to talk.

The U.S. is not participating directly in this upcoming meeting, potentially signaling a shift toward stepping back.

Russian Peace Proposal:

Russia plans to bring a memorandum to the talks, likely demanding:

Ukraine's withdrawal from contested territories.

Ukrainian demilitarization and “denazification”.

A guarantee Ukraine will never join NATO.

These terms are non-starters for Ukraine, suggesting no real breakthrough is likely.

U.S. and Western Position:

The U.S. publicly supports a ceasefire, but has said it may withdraw from negotiations if Russia doesn’t cooperate.

The U.S. ambassador to the UN emphasized that peace depends on Russian actions.

Some frustration is expressed that Zelensky shows no signs of compromise, continuing to demand more Western aid without offering diplomatic flexibility.

Overall Outlook:

The conflict remains deadlocked, with little prospect for meaningful negotiations in the short term.

The West, Ukraine, and Russia remain far apart in their goals and expectations.

The speaker criticizes the confusion in Western media and government about Russia's intentions, stating it's obvious they plan to fight until they win or force Ukraine to surrender.

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The speaker discusses the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, focusing on upcoming negotiations, military dynamics, and Western involvement:

Upcoming Talks: Russia and Ukraine are set to meet on Monday, June 2. Both sides are preparing "memorandums" outlining their negotiating positions, which are already well-known publicly.

Stalemate in Positions: Russia hasn't changed its demands and sees no reason to. It is not "stalling" but rather continuing its military campaign while leaving the door open for talks under its strict conditions.

Western Misperceptions: The West often accuses Russia of not wanting peace, but both sides continue military actions. Ukrainian attacks inside Russia are usually ignored by Western media, while Russian actions are heavily publicized.

Germany’s Role: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently lifted range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine, allowing them to strike inside Russia. Germany also plans to help Ukraine produce long-range missiles domestically, which the speaker doubts will be successful due to Russian targeting capabilities.

Mutual Escalation: Both Ukraine and Russia are launching drone and missile attacks into each other’s territory. The speaker criticizes Western narratives for only highlighting Russian attacks and ignoring Ukrainian ones, calling it selective and misleading.

Russian Perspective: Russia maintains it is open to negotiations but won't stop fighting unless its conditions are met. Officials warn that strikes on Russia with Western-supplied weapons could lead to retaliation against those supplying countries.

Western Strategy Flawed: Supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine may escalate the war without changing the battlefield dynamics. The speaker argues these weapons haven’t proven effective and may provoke broader conflict, especially if Russia retaliates against Western nations directly.

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