This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Vessela Tcherneva, deputy director of ECFR, and Maria Simeonova, head of ECFR’s Sofia office, to discuss the deteriorating political situation in Bulgaria. Bulgaria is set to join the euro zone in 2026—but the country faces severe internal challenges. In a sign of mounting political instability, Bulgarians have gone to the polls seven times in five years. Powerful oligarchs wield increasing influence over state institutions, and are particularly using the judiciary to silence and target opposition figures. In June, former prime minister Kiril Petkov—an opposition leader and co-founder of the centrist We Continue the Change party—was forced to resign as an MP after being accused of corruption. Then, earlier this month, the opposition mayor of Varna, Blagomir Kotsev, was arrested on embezzlement charges following a questionable claim made by a businesswoman with close ties to the ruling centre-right GERB party.

How can the EU confront the entanglement between oligarchs and state institutions in Bulgaria? How can the bloc prevent the kind of democratic backsliding witnessed in Hungary and, increasingly, Slovakia? And if more EU member states experience democratic decline, what impact could that have on the EU’s global image and credibility?

This episode was recorded on July 24th, 2025.

Bookshelf:

Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson

La Route antique des hommes pervers by René Girard

Serbia’s Balancing Act: Between Russia and the West by Vuk Vuksanovic

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