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Democrats Can Still Win The House in November
The generic ballot still shows a six-point Democratic advantage. Since early last year, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris's 2024 numbers by 13 to 15 points across 32 special elections. Republican enthusiasm is low, the party is divided, and Donald Trump is not on the ballot this fall.
Trump's approval on the economy, inflation, and immigration is worse than Joe Biden's numbers were at their lowest. The Iran war is historically unpopular, and with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the worst economic pain — including potentially $10-per-gallon gas in California — has not yet hit. Eighty percent of Americans, in a strongly bipartisan poll, blame Trump and the Iran war for rising prices. That economic pain is expected to peak right before the midterms.
On the gerrymandering front, Texas redrew its map to gain seats — but three of those new districts are heavily Hispanic and Latino, populations that shifted toward Trump in 2024. Those gains may evaporate, potentially turning into Democratic pickups.
Hawk also speaks honestly about the racial dimension of these court decisions, reflecting on the experience of Black Americans who are not surprised by any of this — and what it means that the crowning achievement of the Civil Rights era has effectively been dismantled, rendering the votes of 26 million Black Americans in the South nearly meaningless.
SUPPORT & CONNECT WITH HAWK
- Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/mdg650hawk
- Hawk's Merch Store: https://hawkmerchstore.com
- Connect on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@mdg650hawk7thacct
- Connect on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hawkeyewhackamole
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- Connect on Substack: https://mdg650hawk.substack.com
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ALL HAWK PODCASTS INFO
- Additional Content Available Here:
- https://www.hawkpodcasts.com
- https://www.youtube.com/@hawkpodcasts
- Listen to Hawk Podcasts On Your Favorite Platform:
- Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3RWeJfy
- Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/422GDuL
- YouTube: https://youtube.com/@hawkpodcasts
- iHeartRadio: https://ihr.fm/47vVBdP
- Pandora: https://bit.ly/48COaTB
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By Hawk
4.8
224224 ratings
The generic ballot still shows a six-point Democratic advantage. Since early last year, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris's 2024 numbers by 13 to 15 points across 32 special elections. Republican enthusiasm is low, the party is divided, and Donald Trump is not on the ballot this fall.
Trump's approval on the economy, inflation, and immigration is worse than Joe Biden's numbers were at their lowest. The Iran war is historically unpopular, and with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the worst economic pain — including potentially $10-per-gallon gas in California — has not yet hit. Eighty percent of Americans, in a strongly bipartisan poll, blame Trump and the Iran war for rising prices. That economic pain is expected to peak right before the midterms.
On the gerrymandering front, Texas redrew its map to gain seats — but three of those new districts are heavily Hispanic and Latino, populations that shifted toward Trump in 2024. Those gains may evaporate, potentially turning into Democratic pickups.
Hawk also speaks honestly about the racial dimension of these court decisions, reflecting on the experience of Black Americans who are not surprised by any of this — and what it means that the crowning achievement of the Civil Rights era has effectively been dismantled, rendering the votes of 26 million Black Americans in the South nearly meaningless.
SUPPORT & CONNECT WITH HAWK
- Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/mdg650hawk
- Hawk's Merch Store: https://hawkmerchstore.com
- Connect on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@mdg650hawk7thacct
- Connect on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hawkeyewhackamole
- Connect on BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/mdg650hawk.bsky.social
- Connect on Substack: https://mdg650hawk.substack.com
- Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/hawkpodcasts
- Connect on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mdg650hawk
- Connect on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/mdg650hawk
ALL HAWK PODCASTS INFO
- Additional Content Available Here:
- https://www.hawkpodcasts.com
- https://www.youtube.com/@hawkpodcasts
- Listen to Hawk Podcasts On Your Favorite Platform:
- Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3RWeJfy
- Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/422GDuL
- YouTube: https://youtube.com/@hawkpodcasts
- iHeartRadio: https://ihr.fm/47vVBdP
- Pandora: https://bit.ly/48COaTB
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