DHUnplugged Podcast

End of year gameplan - Is a Santa Rally in the cards - or have we seen the last of that for a while?

Oil on the move - new sanctions against Russia...

The yield curve inversion is very telling.

Employment Report - Stronger than anticipated. The economy isn't slowing enough.

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Warm Up

- Monkeys can breath a sigh of relief

- Marital Affair - just don't vaca in Indonesia

- Santa Rally or Grinch-Off?

- Employment report - not slowing enough

- Apple - On and Off of Twitter

Market Update

- November - Good Start to EOY Seasonality

- Rates down (4.25% -> 3.50% on 10YR)

- Yield Curve Inversion

- Oil Prices DOWN - even on latest Europe news  of Price caps

- Overextended excitement post Powell speech - starting to fade

 Economy Picking Up Steam? (October Numbers)

- New orders for durable goods rose 1.1% m/m in October after increasing 0.2% in September.

- New orders for nondurable goods increased 1.0% m/m in October after increasing 0.3% in September.

- Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- were up 0.6% m/m in October after declining 0.7% in September.

- Good news = Bad news

Yield Curve

Current Curve

Inversion

- Inversion at this magnitude is tough on economy

- Banks slow lending

- Less money to be made by developers (traditional users of leverage)

- An inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasuries has predicted every recession since 1955, with only one false signal during that time.

China

- Re-Opening or False Hope?

- Stocks - especially Hong Kong (Hang Seng) up 4.5% overnight as hope for new rules mean China relaxing

- Looks like HOPE that China is going to all of a sudden reverse all of their recent policies.

Tesla - Slowing

- Bloomberg broke a story that the electric vehicle maker is cutting its December Model Y production by 20% at its Shanghai plant.

- Of course Telsa rebutting that pretty fast

- The report also comes on the heels of a 5-10% price cut in October for TSLA's Model 3 and Model Y in China, and this ominous tweet from Elon Musk on November 30: "Trend is concerning. Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession."

- BUT - Some buyers in the U.S. are holding off on making a purchase until January 1, when the new $7,500 tax credit kicks in. Therefore, any weakness seen in December could be made up in January as buyers look to take advantage of the incentives.

MPOX - New name and Out of Sight

- Mpox is expected to no longer be considered a public health emergency in the United States from Feb. 1, 2023, the U.S. health department said on Friday.

- The months-long declaration was meant to tackle the largest-ever outbreak of cases in the country.

- The move signals that the crisis, which led to a spate of cases mostly among men who have sex with men, has come under control and would no longer require an emergency status meant to shore up funding and tools to fight the disease.

Interested in this...

- Hoka sneakers?

--- Like walking on pillows

- Owned by? Deckers (UGG Shoes)

- DECK symbol

- Stock has held up pretty well this year

Another Stock Idea

- IBKR - was promoted in Barron's over the weekend

- The electronic brokerage firm, which offers active investors sophisticated trading tools and low commissions, recently reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.08, handily beating the consensus estimate of 96 cents. Net revenue of $847 million set a quarterly record, too, rising 18% quarter over quarter, and 30% year over year.

- Stock in good position, slightly down on year

- Multiple currencies,

Crude oil not liking the lockdowns.

Entering a new phase of COVID-19...Permanent China closure next?

November aiming to be another positive month for stocks as

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up

- Big Tippers No More - Change in  trend

- What is happening to oil prices?

- End of Year CTP working on....

- Charity Sporting Clays this week - Invited to Shoot

- iPhone production snafu

Market Update

- November trying for an up month

- BONDS - Yields Down - Prices Up (November)

- USD Down 4.5% in November

- Gold Silver, perform well

- But CRUDE? You see that? (Same crap today)

- Hong Kong Stocks up 5% Monday

Another year coming to an end... SCROOGED?

Turkey UPDATE

Like the story Scrooge....

- Markets thinking about Ghosts of past (1930's, 1970's?), Present (Easy Fed that pivots), Future (???)

Tipping - Deflation

- About 17% of Americans are tipping less due to inflation, while only 10% are tipping more, according to a recent survey of more than 1,000 people by PlayUSA. More than half, or 54%, also said they feel pressure to leave a tip when checking out on an iPad.

- While tipping at full-service restaurants has held steady, averaging 19.6%, according to Toast's most recent restaurant trends report, tips at quick-service restaurants fell slightly from a year ago to 16.8%.

- When it comes to takeout, customers are tipping even less — now down to 14.4%, on average, after it climbed earlier in the pandemic, Toast found.

More-Flation

- The average American household is spending $433 more a month to buy the same goods and services it did a year ago, according to a Moody's Analytics analysis of October inflation data.

- Mortgage rates have doubled from a year ago - Each $100,000 costs 3% more annually ($3,000 per $100k or $250 per month)

Headline Weekend Through Monday - TECH WARS

- Apple (AAPL) -3% extends its decline after gapping below the 50-DMA on production concerns related to the iPhone in China... recent leg lower seems to reflect Elon Musk 'waging war' on Apple's 30% app store fee 

- ALSO, Elon talking about possibly inventing alternative phone if Twitter kicked out of App Store

--- Phil Schiller, a longtime Apple marketing executive who leads its App Store, last week deleted his Twitter account. Schiller's move came after Musk complained on Twitter about Apple's fees, saying they're effectively "a hidden 30% tax on the internet."

Black Friday - The Winner?

- Amazon or  Walmart? Who got the game?

- Searches for Black Friday discounts on Walmart surged 386% year over year, leapfrogging rival retailer Amazon, which last year ranked first in Captify's survey of most searched retailers on Black Friday. This year, the world's largest e-commerce company ranked fourth, behind Target and Kohl's, respectively.

- Black Friday is expected to pull in $9 billion in online sales, a 1% jump from the previous year, according to Adobe.

OH - AND

- Thanksgiving Day online spending hit a record of $5.29 billion, an increase of 2.9% year over year, according to Adobe, which tracks sales on retailers' websites. Typically, shoppers spend about $2 billion to $3 billion online in a day, according to Adobe.

- That increase was driven by demand, not inflation, according to Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe. Online sales haven't been driven higher by inflation like store sales, since e-commerce is largely made up of electronics, apparel and other durables that have stayed stable in price or declined compared to groceries, he said.

Crypto News

- There is NO GOOD NEWS

- Brendan Blumer, known as one of the creators of the EOS blockchain and one of the richest people in the crypto space,

Companies are announcing layoffs and market cheer!

Crypto craziness - FTX ripples throughout industry.

End of year game plan - CTP update and more.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up

- Big Moves - Bets are For Less Hawkish

- Nasty Action in Bitcoin/Coins

- Weird moves at Disney

- Crazy Weather in NorthEast

- Reminder of the CTP going on right now....

Market Update

- Short Week, Wednesday Big Day ECO (FOMC Minutes)

- Headwinds keep piling on - nothing recedes these days

- OPEC news of production increase - then denial

- Crypto Saga continues

SERVER UPDATE - ALL MOVED, CHECKED ALL GOOD TO GO

Turkey Recipe? Dinner Plans?

- PICKLE FEST

Weather Update

- Snowfall of more than 6 feet in western New York state prompted local officials on Saturday to further restrict road travel and forced airlines to cancel flights in the Buffalo area, just ahead of the busy Thanksgiving holiday week.

Twitter/MUSK

- Not talking about - gotten too weird

- Although TSLA at 2-year low price

- Any predictions about Twitter's future?

- Oh, and Trump snubs Twitter after Reinstatement (By Poll?)

World Cup

- Alcohol BANNED from stadium last minute

- World Jewish Congress said meals cooked to Jewish dietary rules and public prayer have been banned during tournament

- It is all about $$$$ - More than ever....

Why More Nuclear Talk?

- What is with this?

- The head of Russia's state-run atomic energy agency, Rosatom, warned on Monday there was a risk of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, following renewed shelling over the weekend.

Oil Prices

- Oil prices dropped to trade near two-month lows on Monday

- Dropped to $75.25 for a moment then was bought on recent double-bottom

- "Apart from the weakened demand outlook due to China's COVID curbs, a rebound in the U.S. dollar today is also a bearish factor for oil prices," said Tina Teng, a CMC Markets analyst.

- More importantly, OPEC is discussing increasing production by 500,000 barrels per day

OPEC Reversal

- OPEC news that they are going to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day.

- Quickly reverses after oil prices plunge

OPEC MOVES

Now to China

- COVID deaths - first time being reported in a while

- Lockdowns - roaming

- Numbers climbing and big concern that this is going to keep the slowdown around the globe

- Inflationary - to a degree and deflationary at the same time

- China held their interest rates steady - they are having a tough time

Over to South Korea

- South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of November shrank 16.7% from the same period a year ago, dragged down by weak demand for chips and from China, customs agency data showed on Monday.

- The country's imports fell 5.5%, bringing the trade balance to a $4.42 billion deficit, on track for an eighth straight month in the red.

- Shipments to China dropped 28.3%, while those to the United States and European Union were up 11.0% and down 1.5%, respectively.

- By product, sales of semiconductors fell 29.4% and wireless communication devices lost 20.6%, but those of cars and petroleum products gained 28.6% and 16.1% each.

---- Remember the Chip shortage? Peak Oil? Note those kind of events.......

Not What You Want

- Philips , which has been struggling with a major recall of ventilators, on Monday flagged further problems with some machines it has previously replaced

- The FDA said the company had notified it that the sound abatement foam could come loose in some refurbished models, "lowering the inspiratory pressure".

- In addition, trace amounts of particulate matter were found in air pathways of some reworked ventilator...

What is happening in the "de-fi" world. Looks more like a scene from Caligula than a trading exchange.

We are allowing children to play with matches - who is really the stupid one?

Everyone is "F" ing everyone.

Bombs flying - rumors and reality.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up

- Hey - What happened to the Red Wave?

---- Everything is gamed...

- Crypto meltdown - just one week and then...

- We are not talking about Musk or Twitter - Sick of the topics

- New Tax In Mass

- Greed - The Favorite Sport of Americans (and the world)

Market Update

- HUGE YUGE Rally - One Two Punch - Inflatio0n and gridlock hopes

---- More Rally on light PPI and Manufacturing prices

- - Short Squeeze too - offsided flip-flop

- Yields drop, USD drops - Market FLY

- China supposedly easing up on COVID restrictions again and ..... helping real estate market

- Biden's College Loan Forgiveness Program shot down

- DXY down 3.5% last 5 days. 10-Year under 4%

You know what is going on?

- Asexual Finance

- - Everyone is just creating things out of nothing - screwing each other and themselves

- - One big "F" Job that yields nothing

- - Lesson learned with FTX - don't kids matches unless you want them to start a fire.

---- OH and massive amount of losses

--- It is the NON-Boomers that are screwing this all up

BOMBS - Wartime News

- Seems that market freaked out at 2PM Tuesday

- Reports that 2 missiles veered off course and hit town in Poland

- Then there was reports that Ukraine shot down and pieces hit areas in Poland

- Then reports that all unconfirmed - markets rally back

Massachusetts Tax

- The new law creates a 4% tax on annual income above $1 million, on top of the state's current 5% flat income tax, aiming to fund public education, roads, bridges and public transportation.

- How many will be leaving?

- Where will they be going to?

Gridlock?

- What happened to the Red Wave?

- House will ensure more gridlock than we have now - even though Dems have majority in Senate

- What does the Biden scramble look like now through inauguration of new leaders?

FTX meltdown

- Whatever we know - I don't think we know anything

- Days to take down 2nd largest Crypto exchange (without any conspiracy additives)

- Bitcoin/Ether down 20% last week - crypto markets in disarray

- It is NOT the coin - it is the little greedy bitches that have been allowed to play in this environment with no regulation

- All of a sudden there is odd money movements/withdrawals. What about the transparency????

- Now potentially $$ missing ($1billion)

- Mysterious outflows and:

--- High-net-worth users are paying astronomical prices for NFTs on FTX at a time when the broader crypto and digital collectible market has nosedived. In one case, a collectible that traded near $9 three weeks ago sold for $10 million on Friday. Another NFT that was similarly priced a month ago, sold for $888,888.88 this week. (Somehow a way to move $$$ from FTX?)

Retailers Reporting this week

- Tuesday: Home Depot and Walmart (before the bell)

- Wednesday: Lowe's and Target (before the bell)

- Thursday: Macy's and Kohl's (before the bell); Gap (after the bell)

Oil - OPEC Cuts Growth Forecast

- Trims demand growth in 2022, 2023 by 100,000 bpd

- Says global supply was in surplus in second, third quarters

- OPEC Oct. output fell by 210,000 bpd, exceeding pledged cut

- Saudi Arabia reports smaller drop in its October output

- Oil demand in 2022 will increase by 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.6%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report, down 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

Crypto crash part XXIVV. The lesson is now clear - never put your company name on a sports facility.

The Dems going to have a tough day - Biden concedes that a change is coming.

Markets are caught between earnings downgrades and seasonal benefits - which way will it go?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up

- Election Day! Lots looking for split govy!

- Glitch on the server - last CTP may be a problem

- All about Musk - All of the time - gotta keep relevant

- Employment Report - Can't stop never gonna stop!

- New Server Up - lots of dev time on this migration...

Market Update

- Starting out November on the wrong foot

- Who Will run in 2024? Markets trying to sniff out the playbook

- China's stock market rally hard! - False hopes?

- Incredible - FTX now needs bailout

IMPORTANT UPDATE

- TrendTracker: S&P 500 earnings are up 2.2% yr/yr in Q3, but they are now expected to fall 1% in Q4 - FactSet

- "On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2022 was 9.1%. By September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate had fallen to 3.9%. Today, the estimated earnings decline is -1.0%."

- Earnings are currently expected to return to yr/yr growth in Q1 and accelerate throughout 2023, coming in at ~5% growth for the year (down from nearly 10% not long ago).

- Those estimates still seem relatively optimistic/stale if the economy continues to soften as many economists expect.

- Estimates for 2023 seem likely to come down further when companies will give initial guidance for the year with Q4 results in Jan-March.

Earnings Slowing

BUT......

- According to the historical trends during years of mid-term elections

- Gridlock on Capitol Hill would be supportive of risk assets. Being forced to compromise serves to moderate the more extreme inclinations of each party, providing a more stable policy backdrop for investors.

-- -The data supports this.

- US equities have averaged annual gains of 12.9% when a president has had to contend with a split Congress.

- This compares with a more modest increase of 6.7% when a Democratic president has controlled both chambers.

Stock Trends - Mid-Terms

Twitter Chaos

- $8 Blue Checkmark - what is the point?

- Flip flop - now $8 checkmark waits until after the election

- Job cuts - massive headcount reduction (3,600- then a reversal a few days later

- Blue Checkmark warning - imposters will get banned for life

---- So fake news and hate is okay, but just don't pose as Elon? What a joke!

- Musk wrote on Sunday that, moving forward, Twitter will now permanently suspend impersonators' accounts without warning if they are not clearly labeled as parody.

- Advertisers pulling out "temporarily"

- - Musk uses it as a great way to make excuse for layoffs - even though layoffs were happening before the advertiser embargo

Crypto

- And that was that - FTX has liquidity crunch after massive withdrawals

- Sam Bankman Fried panics and sells all to Binance - Binance will back all transactions

- Remember Fried stepped in on some of the "stablecoin" deals hoping that they could save them

- Fried has been called the last resort for many crypto - the new JP Morgan

-- - The FTX co-founder is on the brink of a 94% wealth wipeout

- Major coins were getting crushed early in the day Tuesday on the liquidity scare - - > Rally with this news

- - Seems that this whole industry has been build on hope and greed rather than any substantive math/finance

Apple - Finally Succumbs

- Taiwan's Foxconn, Apple Inc's biggest iPhone maker, said on Monday it was working to resume full production at a major plant in China's Zhengzhou as soon as possible that has been hit by COVID-19 curbs,

Landmines everywhere - it is a warzone when it comes to markets.

October - one of the best in history - who would have thought?

Talks of a windfall tax - say it ain't so Joe!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up

- It is a financial war-zone out there!

- For all the market timers who got out on the breakdown this month - HOW IT GOING?

- Fed meeting this week - The Media all a flurry (Obsessed)

- Lockdowns in China AGAIN (Also reports that COVID lab accident released from Wuhan)

- Big end of Week- FOMC decision and employment numbers

- What are they smoking in the UK?

Market Update

- BIG-TOBER - DJIA up 14% - Crazy Numbers

- Apple has one of its biggest days ever, Amazon, one of its worst

- FANG Stock drop by record

- Windfall Tax Update (Why not charge Apple? Pfizer?)

- New Term Out - From Pivot to.....

How Good Of  A Month?

- DJIA Up 14%, Financials Up 11%, LONG Treasuries DOWN 6%,  SMALL Caps Up 12%, CHINA down 12%, Oil up 8%

- VALUE still outpacing Growth - YTD -11% vs -27%

Good Idea?

- JP Morgan building Rental Payment system

- Says checks are still most used to pay rent today - wants to digitize

- The bank is piloting a platform it created for property owners and managers that automates the invoicing and receipt of online rent payments

- As a result, about 78% are still paid using old-school checks and money orders, according to JPMorgan

- JPMorgan has spent the past few years working on the software, called Story, which is meant to ultimately become an all-in-one property management solution.

Of Course There Is This

- Renters filed a lawsuit this week alleging that a company that makes price-setting software for apartments and nine of the nation’s biggest property managers formed a cartel to artificially inflate rents in violation of federal law.

- The lawsuit was filed days after ProPublica published an investigation raising concerns that the software, sold by Texas-based RealPage, is potentially pushing rent prices above competitive levels, facilitating price-fixing, or both.

- The lawsuit accused the property managers and RealPage of forming “a cartel to artificially inflate the price of and artificially decrease the supply and output of multifamily residential real estate leases from competitive levels.”

- RealPage’s software uses an algorithm to churn through a trove of data each night to suggest daily prices for available rental units.

All Eyes on the Fed

- Wobble baby

- Fed toning down hawkish stance but still aggressively tightening = wobble

- Odds are for 0.75% hike this meeting and more than 50% chance for 0.50% in December

- HOWEVER, spending still robust, employment solid

Silly

- Chief Economist and Economic Policy Adviser to Vice President of United States Jared Bernstein hit the wires at the top of the hour with: "Biden has endorsed Fed's policy pivot"

FAANG

- MASSIVE LOSSES 1 - Year

FAANG

Social Media

- Total thrashing after earnings

- SNAP +6% and META +4% lifting on the Axios report that the FCC Commissioner wants to ban TikTok

- According to sources: A ban would be huge for META and SNAP, but seems unlikely. Perhaps the government will force ByteDance to sell TikTok,

- Didn't we go through this once before?

Brazil - All too Familiar?

- Brazilian leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated President Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff election

- But Bolsonao (incumbent) did not concede defeat on Sunday night

- Truck drivers believed to be Bolsonaro supporters on Sunday blocked a highway in four places in the state of Mato Grosso, a major grains producer, according to the highway operator.

- Brazilian markets volatile

Directionless - markets have lost all sense of trend.

Volatility expands, 5% swings daily - not since the great financial crisis..

Earnings are out and we take a peek.

A new Closest to The Pin announced.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- Hysteria - moves widening - Future soar Tuesday overnight

- U Turn after U Turn After We Turn - Feel Like Dizzy Bats

- Gates are Giving Big $$$ for another Disease

- ANNOUNCING - A New CTP

Market Update

- What's the point? Up one Day Down the next

- Lows hit last Thursday for 2022 then massive bounce (5% intraday move)

- 4% 10-year is recent top?

- Economics, Mixed

- Earnings - beating lowered bar

- Apple News - Rotten

This!

- BlackRock: MO State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick announces MOSERS has pulled $500 million in state pension funds from BLK due to ESG initiatives 

- "At the MOSERS Board of Trustees meeting in June, the board directed staff to require BlackRock to abstain from voting proxies on behalf of the plan, due to concerns with their public statements and record of prioritizing ESG initiatives over shareholder return. BlackRock refused the Board's demand to abstain from voting the plan's proxies. As a result, MOSERS proceeded with, and has now completed, the sale of all of its equity holdings with BlackRock. The funds are now primarily managed through contracts held by NISA, a St. Louis-based investment manager."

ECONOMICS

- NAHB Housing Market Index 38 vs. 44 Briefing.com consensus; prior 46

- September Industrial Production 0.4% vs. 0.1% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.4% from -0.2%

- September Capacity Utilization 80.3% vs. 79.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 80.1% from 80.0%

Goldman Says

- After beating lowered earnings....

- Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon cautioned Tuesday that the U.S. economy might be headed for a downturn that could make investing and business decisions more difficult.

- “That environment heading into 2023 is one that you’ve got to be cautious and prepared for,” he told CNBC.

- His remarks came just a few days after his counterpart at JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, also warned of looming trouble for the U.S. economy.

Wow

- U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt used his first Monday on the job to announce that "almost all" tax measures announced by his predecessor would be reversed.

- BTW - new Finance Minister - Kwarteng ousted after his bad move..

Bank of America Earnings

- Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.03 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.78; revenues rose 7.6% year/year to $24.5 bln vs the $23.46 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

- Provision for credit losses of $898 million increased $1.5 billion. Net reserve build of $378 million vs. net reserve release of $1.1 billion in Q3-21. Net charge-offs of $520 million increased 12%. Net interest income (NII)(E) up $2.7 billion, or 24%, to $13.8 billion, driven by benefits from higher interest rates, including lower premium amortization expense, and solid loan growth.

- Average loan and lease balances up $114 billion, or 12%, to $1.0 trillion led by strong commercial loan growth as well as higher credit card balances.

Netflix Earnings (JCD has on Game)

- Big move after hours +14%

- Better sub additions - much better outlook

- Taking NAZ100 futures higher

Someone getting Smart?

- Germany plans to extend the life of three of the country's nuclear power plants to mid-April 2023, according to Bloomberg

American Express September Card Metrics

- Reports September U.S. Consumer Card Member loans net write-off rate of 0.8% vs 0.8% prior month (0 bps change) with consumer loans 30 days past due 0.9% vs 0.

Dvorak's prediction is looking very prescient.

Markets cannot get a break - all news is bad news.

More boneheaded moves by governments. Need to get some adults in charge here...

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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Warm Up

- Market Rally Hard – then Fade Hard

- Nobel Prized awarded!

- Inverse Cramer ETF Filed

- IMF Poops on and Possible Party

- Scare tactics? The Wealth Advisor Headlines

Market Update

- Jamie Dimon – Not Bullish

- DJIA hit 29,010 low on Monday

- Dvorak's Prophesy - UK in Distress

- Nasty action - no reprieve, no good news

- NASDAQ closes at 2 year low (taking out most of pandemic move

Remember we talking last episode about "breaking things"

- It looked as though there was a significant breakdown of confidence (especially in the UK)

--- Dvorak Prophecy comes true

- Bond market BROKE in UK - poor leadership and lack of plan

- US and around the world, central bankers trying to break inflation (through recession)

Big Week

- Economics: PPI, CPI, FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, UMICH (WOW!)

- PPI expected to come in at 0.3% MoM, CPI 0.2%  MoM

- CORE PPI expected 0.4%, CORE CPI 0.5%

-- EARNINGS: BANKS start the earnings season (JPM Citi)

IMF

- The International Monetary Fund predicts global growth will slow to 2.7% next year, 0.2 percentage points lower than its July forecast, and anticipates 2023 will feel like a recession for millions around the world.

- "The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession," the report said, echoing warnings from the United Nations, the World Bank and many global CEOs.

- More than a third of the global economy will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union and China — will continue to slow, the report said.

- Not particularly encouraging....

NOBEL

- Ben Bernanke won this year's Nobel Economics Prize on Monday for laying the foundation of how the world now manages global crises like the recent pandemic or the Great Recession of 2008

- Student of the Depression and Recessions of the Past

- BUT, Did not see anything of concern during 2006, 2007, 2008 as the financial system was starting to implode

- Maybe could have been worse ????

Time for Selling (Tax Loss)

- Into the end of the year –  time to start thinking about  Tax Loss harvesting

- That’s the term for selling a stock at a loss and using that to offset gains elsewhere in one’s portfolio.

- ** Mutual Funds are going to be looking for losses and may be selling as Oct 31 is often associated with incentive under TRA 1986

Twitter Deal

- On, Off, On, Off, On again

- Musk now says he wants to buy at original price of $54.20

- Banks may face stiff losses

- Lenders that also include Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. committed to provide $13 billion of debt financing for the deal. Their losses would amount to $500 million or more if the debt were to be sold now, according to Bloomberg calculations.

--- Why did he decide to go through with deal? Wanted out of deposition?

More Musk – Endless Musk

- Twitter to become Super-App?

- On Tuesday, Musk tweeted that buying Twitter is an "accelerant to creating X, the everything app."

- Super apps is a term to describe an app that often acts as a one-stop shop for all your mobile needs. For example, you might order a taxi or food via the app and at the same time do payments and messaging. This eliminates the need to have multiple apps for different functions.

Defense Stocks

- A basket of five— Northrop Grumman (ticker: NOC), Lockheed Martin (LMT),

- Egotistical Narcissists as as the the Stupidity Police are not doing their job.

Chinese living in ROTTING properties

Some amazing technicals - historic in fact. WOW!

The lowdown on Pumpkin Spice latte.. Big Business!

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Warm Up

- Egotistical Narcissists

- The Stupidity Police are not doing their job

- Chinese living in ROTTING properties

- We have another FRAMEWORK

- Sending Kamala to the DMZ line

Market Update

- B A D - Things are starting to break

- Confidence lost as things are breaking (Currencies)

---- Fed needs to chill - and I have a few tings to say..

- China opening up Macau (Casino stocks fly)

- Technical indicators!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NEXT WEEK - YOM KIPPUR - NO SHOW

Rate Update

- High grade money markets >2.4%

- 2 year muni bond >2.5%   3.5%

- 12 month treasury >4.3%

- 10-year taps 4% today

- 1 year CD > 3.5%

JCD

- FYI - DJIA @ 30,706      29,500    29,134!!!!

Tropical Storm/Hurricane

- Storm looks nasty - in the middle of some of the bans right now

Technical as of Monday Morning (Charts)

- Some very severe oversold conditions

- KRI (-7) - only seen one time in recent history and that was 12/24/2019 when market bottomed

- RSI all over sold

- McClellan - LOW (-400)

- Spearman LOW (-98)

- 11 New 52 week highs -(most inverse ETFs)

- VIX >30

- 447  SP500 below 200 DMA

Boneheads

- Huge tax cuts in the UK apparently decided on overnight and the approval of massive debt issuance.

- Do we miss Boris Johnson Yet?

- More things breaking

The Cable

More on Brit Pound

- That currency move is NOT normal and should give a cold-water-slap-upside-the-head-punch-in-the-mouth wake-up call to Team Powell.

- The moves that they are making and the hard line they are shaking is a bit over the top.

- Unfortunately they have a much bigger regard for themselves than then should.

- In fact, it appears that Team Powell is made up a gaggle of egocentric narcissists that need to come down off their collective perch's and take a look at what is really going on and why we are seeing historic moves in some financial markets.

Sending Kamala

- Vice President Kamala Harris will visit the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the Koreas on Thursday in a bid to show Washington's commitment to the South's security

- The DMZ visit will underscore the strength of the alliance between Seoul and Washington "in the face of any threats posed" by North Korea

- Does not seem like a show of strength

FEELINGS ON THE FED (Not due to markets, due to policy)

- A bunch of  two-toned, zebra headed, slime-coated, pimple-farming, paramecium brain, munching-on-their-own-mucus, all suffering from PETER PAN? ENVY!!!  AND -  lewd, crude, rude, bag of pre-chewed food, dudes! Lying, crying, spying, prying ultra-pigs!   (From the movie Pan - Robin William)

China - Rotting

- A movement of home buyers around China who have moved into what they call "rotting" apartments, either to pressure developers and authorities to complete them or out of financial necessity.

- Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute estimated in July that stalled projects accounted for 3.85% of China's housing market in the first half of 2022, equivalent to an area of 231 million square metres.

Can't Even

- Pumpkin spice latte (PSL)

-  PSL industry was worth >$500 million -

- Starbucks has sold more than 600 million since inception

PSA

- Don't cook your chicken in NyQuil

- FDA now warning about this new TikTok challenge

- Possible that brands are behind this insanity?

- A number of videos challenged people to cook chicken in NyQuil, which contains acetaminophen,

Auntie Em! It's a twister! Rate hikes that is - everyone is getting hysterical.

FedEx puts a crimp in the outlook.

Stranger Danger - new Monkeypox advice in China

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- So Sorry - The Killers concert update

- Biden making some big announcements

- Announcing the winner of the CTP for Bed bath and Beyond

- Stranger Danger

- FedEx Warning shakes markets

- New sport? Nose Biting?

---- Has done something no one has ever done before!

Market Update

- Big day coming - Fed Rate Decision

- UGLY week - CPI (Inflation) ruined the party

--- 5.5% DOWN for NASDAQ last Tuesday. Markets off big last week

- Oil dropping on concerns that China COVID -ZERO and global slowdown

- Goldman Cutting US Growth Forecast

RATE HYSTERIA!

- 2PM, 2:30PM - Wednesday

- 20% probability of 1% and 100% of 75%|

- 10Yr spiked again - now over the top of June peak

- - Seems that markets and news hysterical - yet inflation peaking.....

- If any slight layoff by Powell , markets going to gush higher (at least temporarily)

- - Seems like 0.75% priced in - so not sure where we are going from here (pundits again looking for downside after they switched recently)

Rate Update

- High grade money markets >2%

- 2 year muni bond >2.5%

- 12 month treasury >4%

- 1 year CD > 2.7%

JCD

- FYI - DJIA @ 30,706

President Biden - Declaration!

- The Pandemic Is Over!

--- "We still have a problem with COVID. We're still doing a lotta work on it. But the pandemic is over. If you notice, no one's wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape. And so I think it's changing."

- Doesn't the WHO have the responsibility of declaring?

Biden Again -

- Inflation just moved up an inch in the last reading

- Trying his best to tamp down the concerns out there

- Biden team out if force on the idea that gas and oil prices are down big - talking it up

- Oil and gas are all about China - not US

Biden - So happy - Gas prices plummeting

Gas Prices

Maybe not so Happy

- US household net worth declined in the second quarter by the most on record as aggressive action by the Fed to tame rapid inflation sent stocks plunging

MonekeyPox Back in the News

- Seems that spread in Europe is slowing down significantly

- China gets first case and now they are saying: Don't touch foreigners to reduce monkeypox risk

- "To prevent possible monkeypox infection and as part of our healthy lifestyle, it is recommended that 1) you do not have direct skin-to-skin contact with foreigners," Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention posted on his official Weibo page on Saturday.

- 2) Wu also called for people to avoid such contact with people who have been abroad within the past three weeks as well as all "strangers", as he cautioned vigilance. (STRANGER DANGER)

What is Up ? FedEx Warning

- FedEx on Thursday withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments.

- "Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S.," CEO Raj Subramaniam said in the release. "While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts."

- Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expected   -  - - --   Revenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expected

- Prompted in interview with Cramer: Is the economy headed for Worldwide recession???

------- “I think so,” Subramaniam said. “These numbers, they don’t portend well.” “We are a reflection of everybody else’s business,