DHUnplugged Podcast

Put away the white pants - box up the white shoes - summer is over.

Deeply Oversold - Quick bounce potential is high (Happened last week and today already 3 times)

New study on talking to plants

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- Back from NOLA - FSU/LSU game - unreal weekend

- Putting away the White pants and shoes - post Labor Day

- Europe is in trouble - Russia playing hardball with energy flows

- Germany rethinking Nuclear energy

- New study on talking to plants

- Reminder of CTP that is closing for entries Friday

Market Update

- Deeply Oversold - Bounce Potential High (Happened last week and today already)

--- Seems that 3.3% 10Yr is near-term cap?

- QQQ bounce from low in June to high 23%, now eroded to 8%

- Turmoil at BBBY

- China lockdowns and OPEC production cuts

- Apple Sept 7th launch event

BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - TEASE REALLY - TriggerCharts Indicators - New Distribution, New platforms..! NOW TRADINGVIEW.. Launch 1st week of September - Tradestation, eSignal, TradingView!

RSS Feed - FIXED

Yields - 10yr Treasury at June Highs - 3.342%

Market/Sectors Update

Sectors - YTD

When the going get tough

- Throw out all Climate concerns

- Germany keeping 2 nuclear power plans active (Uranium URA?)

- Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear plants available for power production as part of a reserve scheme recommended by power transmission grid operators (TSOs) that stress-tested electricity supply

- Economy minister Robert Habeck said the risks of nuclear technology mandated holding on to the exit plan but restrictions in Russian gas deliveries justified the reserve measure.

Oil Production

- OPEC cannot seem to make up its mind - a group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers on Monday agreed on a small output cut from next month, surprising energy markets at a time of considerable turmoil.

- OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an influential energy alliance known as OPEC+, decided to cut production targets by about 100,000 barrels per day from October.

- Oil spiked then dropped after the news (Economic realities and China lockdowns)

Russia Playing Hardball

- On Friday, Russian energy supplier Gazprom said it would not resume its supply of natural gas to Germany through the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline, blaming a malfunctioning turbine.

- The euro fell below 99 cents for the first time in 20 years Monday, after Russia said it would shut off its main gas supply pipeline to Europe indefinitely.

- The EU's common currency was trading around 0.9915 versus the dollar by 1:00 p.m. London time (8:00 a.m. ET), having climbed off lows of $0.9881 hit earlier in the day.

- The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, also breached a fresh two-decade high as the British pound slid on fears over energy supply and European economic growth.

Last Item

- Looking at European Gas prices - just to be clear

- Lower gas flows from Russia ahead of and following its February invasion of Ukraine have already pushed up European prices by nearly 400% over the past year, sending electricity costs soaring.

Crude Oil Futures

California Rolling Blackouts?

- Highest rates since 2020

- Potential for rotating outages to conserve

--- How does this work for Electric cars? Supposed to be cheaper alternative

China Lockdown

- Some districts of China's southern tech hub Shenzhen extended curbs on public activities, dining out and entertainment venues on Friday, but city officials stopped short of a full lockdown

- Most of Shenzhen's nearly 18 million residents are now under COVID controls amid the city's most serious outbreak since spring.

PAIN - that is what he said.... PAIN!

RSS feed gone wild. It looks like it is fixed.

Markets held up nicely - but end of the month, low volume and just trader exhaustion seemed to win over.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- Worst Day in months

- Powell invokes Volker  - PAIN AHEAD

- $10,000 off Student Debt Sale

- RSS Feed - something not right with DHUnplugged - Pushed show on Fedd 5 times last week.

- Need a CTP Stock!

- Inflation HOT is baseball Card Market!

Market Update

- HOT MESS - Now What?

- -  Europe poised for more problems with Russian Oil

- ECB next in line to start hiking rates

- EVs Stil hot News - Ford up

- 50-Day MA - S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, touch and bump Monday

BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - TEASE REALLY - TriggerCharts Indicators - New Distribution, New platforms..! NOW TRADING VIEW.. Launch 1st week of September - Tradestation, eSignal, TradingView!

RSS Feed Gone Wild! - Pushed 3-4 DHUnplugged. Something with Site code - Maybe... We shall see tonight.

Salesforce Story

- Credit Card expiration - thought I updated

- Billing due 8/14

- 8/29 get a threatening email and warning about pulling forward contract and lock out

- 8/29 - LOCKED OUT - can't even get to the billing area to see what is up...

- Threatening email - no direct way to contact

--- Your account with Salesforce has an outstanding balance of USD******. If this balance is not settled by 08-Sep-2022, your account will be placed with a third party collection agency. If payment is received by Salesforce after this date, payment for the full contract value will be required before your account can be reactivated and for any and all collection costs incurred by Salesforce including the fee for placing the account. We are obligated to pursue the entire unpaid contract value of any and all agreements between Salesforce and *Horowitz & Co. 

We would like to avoid these measures; however, we feel we have no choice but to take these steps.

Salesforce will have no obligation to maintain or provide your data after the time specified in your Master Subscription Agreement, and will thereafter delete or destroy all copies of your data in our systems. You may request a data export within the time period set forth in the Documentation by logging a support case.

Start with Inflation Item

- "Gasoline futures have fallen to new trend lows this morning, now printing lowest levels in over 6 months"

- Down 32% from high

Gas Futures

Technicals !

- 50 DMA - holds for all major indices after Friday's breakdown

- 200-day massive resistance

- - Institutional - 1st line of support (50 Day)

---- But 50 Day below 200 day - Not good set up

---- One good thing - 50 Day slightly rising

- End of Month, light volume, big sell-off

- Needs to Hold and rebound if any chance

Powell Speech

- Says the word Pain

- Invokes comment about Volker

- Essentially walks back any thought that they are going to slow the rate hikes

White House Prepping

- Says they think employment numbers may be soft on Friday - or softening...

- On that note - SNAP laying off  20% of staff

- Remember all those calls for : "Nobody teaches finance in school?" - THIS IS WHY WE GET COMPANIES THAT THIK THEY CN RUN WITH CRAP FINANCIALS

Jackson Hole Reality Check - Awakening

- Central banks spent decades building their credibility on inflation fighting skills and losing this battle could shake the foundations of modern monetary policy.

- - "The longer inflation stays high, the greater the risk that the public will lose confidence in our determination and ability to preserve purchasing power." (ECB Member)

- "Even if we enter a recession,

Update3 - Push to Podcast Apps

Update - Push to Podcast Apps

Squeeze No More - Meme names come crashing down to earth! Treasury (yields) moving higher again - lots of Central bank chatter Jackson Hole confab this week - what will Powell say? Retail earnings... Hit and miss.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - The Squeeze gets squashed - Really HOT in China! - E Coli outbreak - watch out - Jackson Hole Annual gathering of eco big-wigs - Gearing up for War? - A sad day for the Auto industry Market Update - Rolling Over - Fed ratchets up "communication strategy" - Everyone watching the Jackson Hole confab - Friday Powell Speaks  (morning) - Treasury (yields) moving higher again - lots of Central bank chatter - - 10Yr Yield 3% again - Retail Earnings Reminder - This week on TDI Podcast - Peter Schiff (Gold, Tuna and Central Banks)   BREAKING NEWS - White House officials expect slower economic growth in 2022 with higher inflation, according to NY Times Now this is interesting - EURO @NG... Euro NG Facts - Just the Facts - At the end of 2021, Natural Gas Prices on Europe was priced at 70 Euros. U.S. Natural gas (NG) was priced at $2.53. ---- Note that these have different measurements, but let's just look at price escalation. - Currently, the price of Natural gas in Europe is 276 Euros. Here in the U.S. it is $9.64. - So, European natural gas has moved up 294% since the end of 2021. U.S. Natural gas has seen a 281% rise. - If you were only getting info from the TV talking heads, you would believe that NG prices have moved much more than here in the U.S. - The blame has been squarely directed to Russia on this. But, the U.S. is a major NG producer. Big problem with the messaging.... So, What Does German Do About it? - German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country's three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use. - These savings were not sufficient to be worth reopening the debate about the exit from nuclear energy given the consensus on the topic, he said during a discussion with citizens at the government's open-door day. Oil Not Going Down - Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia warned that OPEC could cut output to correct a recent drop in oil futures. - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stands ready to reduce production to correct the recent oil price fall driven by poor futures market liquidity and macro-economic fears, which has ignored extremely tight physical crude supply Meanwhile - U.S. crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 8.1 million barrels in the latest week to the lowest level in more than 35 years, according to data from the Department of Energy. One More Energy - German utility Uniper SE on Monday said it will start producing electricity for the market at its Heyden 4 hard-coal-fired power plant as a three-day halt in Russia's gas supplies to Europe may cause disruptions to power supply. - In December 2020, Uniper announced that Heyden 4 would stop commercial production as Germany's energy regulator included it on the list of plants that may be shut in return for compensation to fight carbon pollution. - So much for global warming! Remember The SQUEEEEEZE - Was fun while it lasted - BBBY high of $30, now below $10 ---- Ryan Cohen pumped and dumped.... Sol ALL SHARES a couple days after the big move (That was due to his massive option purchase) - AMC $27 last week to $11 now - Big reversals for ARRK type names after nice run-up - - 200 Day MA for S&P500 was line in the sand M&A - Signify Health surged 37.

See the show notes here: https://www.dhunplugged.com/2022/08/24/dhunplugged-620-squeeze-squashed-2/

Squeeze No More – Meme names come crashing down to earth.

Treasury (yields) moving higher again – lots of Central bank chatter

Jackson Hole confab this week – what will Powell say?

Retail earnings… Hit and miss….

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Squeeze No More – Meme names come crashing down to earth.

Treasury (yields) moving higher again – lots of Central bank chatter

Jackson Hole confab this week – what will Powell say?

Retail earnings… Hit and miss….

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Up, Up and Away. When everyone thinks there is more downside, this happens.

China economics are weak and probably getting weaker.

Peter Schiff and others warn about what will come next...

Dire predictions and buoyant markets - with a side of short squeeze.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- ESG Finally Getting a Probe

- Big Week for Retail (Earnings)

- Peloton - Restructuring and  changing prices again

- Can't keep this market down - well, at least for a while..

Market Update

- Fed continues to press for higher rates

- China issues a surprise rate cut (minor)

- The Bear Bounce? New Rally - Lows are In?

- China's Pain is Oil's Pain

- OH - The Squeeze is On! - But Still seeing Dire Warnings about what is to come...

- Musk comes Tweets he is buying.. At 8:01PM

COMING UP THIS WEEK ON TDI Podcast - Peter Schiff

Big Calls

- Peter Schiff doesn’t think the Fed can beat the current inflationary pressure America is dealing with today. “Not only can’t the Fed win a fight against inflation without causing a recession, it can’t do so without causing a far worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008,”

- “Worse still, a war against inflation can’t be won if there are any bailouts or stimulus to ease the pain,”

Where to begin this week?https://www.dhunplugged.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/CAPE_20220816.jpg

Now this is interesting - Market Valuation...

CAPE RATIO

The SQUEEEEEZE

- Here we go again - low-quality, High Short-interest stocks getting the love

- BBBY up 200% past couple weeks, 65% TODAY!

- Party City up 27% TODAY

- FUBOTV, Blue Apron, My Size, ThredUp, Cruise Lines (after secondary offerings), GameStop on the move too....

- What does this mean?

Markets

- So many overbought readings

- Multi-Month Highs

- Valuations?

- What is the great spirit that is moving things - why so bullish all of a sudden?

ELON!

- 8:01PM (After hours markets closed)

- - "Also, I’m buying Manchester United ur welcome"

--- Is he serious? News reports are unclear - no one knows for sure what this is all about

Earnings

- Home Depot - beats (significantly lowered expectations - low bar)

---- Earnings Growth 8% YoY, Revenue 6.5%

------Higher product prices drove average spending per transaction up more than 9%, even as customer transactions at its stores dropped 3%, helping the company record its highest ever quarterly sales and earnings.

- Walmart - same story as Home Depot (management did not downgrade any further this time)

---- Earnings - slightly lower than 1-year ago, revenue growth 8.4%

- Shoppers are shopping, looks like they are buying less higher priced products is the story

WMT Beat Lowered Earnings Estimates

WMT Estimates

Housing - Stinks

- The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 6 points to 49 this month, its eighth straight monthly decline.

- The index has not been in negative territory since a very brief plunge at the start of the Covid pandemic. Before that, it hadn't been negative since June 2014.

- Regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder confidence in the Northeast fell 9 points to 56, and dropped 3 points in the Midwest to 49. In the South it fell 7 points to 63, and in the West, where home prices are highest, it declined 11 points to 51.

- The biggest hurdle for buyers right now is affordability

Peleton

- Peloton Interactive Inc said on Friday it would cut jobs, shut stores and raise prices on its exercise equipment including treadmills and top-end bikes as it undertakes a company-wide revamp to shore up its revenue and improve cash flow.

- Shifting final mile delivery to third-party logistics provi...

Markets just don't know how to read the current backdrop - so many crosscurrents.

Fed speakers continue to press on with their high hopes for higher rates - walking it back

Buyback frenzy coming?

Softbank - horrible, simply horrible.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- 8/8 - Happy Anniversary Mimi!

- How You Like a Nice Warm Short Squeeze?

---- Highest Short Interest Getting BID BIGLY |

- OLD MEME Stocks on fire - then cool off

- Big YUGE moves on last week's picks

- Recession? Employment Says: We Ain't Got No Stinking Recession

Market Update

- Credit Expanding - eating through savings?

- Charts making the rounds....

- CPI coming Wednesday, PPI Thursday

- Amazon acquiring this company - need delve deep

- An interesting acquisition announcement today..

- Layoffs in Techland AND expense cuts

Employment

- HOT!

- 500k+ added to the payrolls.

- 3.5% Unemp Rate

- Average Hourly Earnings +5% !

Post Employment Numbers - WALK IT BACK

- FED parade of backwalkers continue - that is what they are Backward Walkers

- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday she supports the central bank's recent big interest rate increases and thinks they are likely to continue until inflation is subdued.

-- "My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way"

---- Very consistent with all of the other Backward-Walking Fed speakers

Spending Bill

-  Summary: The climate, healthcare and tax bill passed by the U.S. Senate over the weekend could shave corporate earnings slightly and make companies pull forward their share repurchase plans, while giving a boost to some sectors like electric vehicle makers, biofuel and solar energy

- The $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act bill would impose a new excise tax on stock buybacks and a minimum 15% tax on corporations.

- "The number one thing that stands out is that you're going to see an acceleration of buybacks before the end of this year," said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member of New York-based Great Hill Capital. "Companies would rather not pay that tax ... They have this window, and you can be assured they're going to take advantage of it."

Pfizer - New Income Source

- Pfizer Inc will buy blood disorder drugmaker Global Blood Therapeutics in a $5.4 billion deal, as it looks to boost its pipeline to combat a potential slowdown in COVID product demand that analysts anticipate from falling cases.

- GBT makes Oxbryta which was first approved in 2019 to treat sickle cell disease among patients aged 12 years or older.

- Sickle Cell

Tech layoffs

- Several companies have either discussed layoffs or stop hire mandates

- Microsoft is asking managers to reduce employee expenses on business travel and outside training, according to WSJ

Credit Card Debt

- Americans have opened 233 million credit card accounts since April, the largest increase since 2008.

- Credit card debt is up 13% since April, the largest increase since 2001.

- Total credit card debt is set to cross $1 trillion for the first time ever.

- "Is the bubble is expanding?" - The Kobeissi Letter

HOT Chart - Everyone is doing these....

- Comparing 2006-2009 to today (markets)

Dreaded DJIA Chart

Another one....

Another One

Berkshire - good and bad

- Operating earnings - It marked a 38.8% increase from the same quarter a year ago.

- However, the company posted a $53 billion loss on its investments during the quarter.

----- Buffet again asked investors to not focus on the quarterly fluctuations in its equity investments.

- - "The amount of investment gains/losses in any given ...