DHUnplugged Podcast

The sky is falling - literally.

We are seeing markets applaud spending cuts - but how far does that reach?

An update on inflation and the Fed's latest shenanigans.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up

- Superbowl - thoughts on adverts/halftime?

- Jesus Gets Us

- Big news at the BOJ

- Crypto Under Fire

- AI frenzy seems over already

- Kanye West Fallout continues

- Soft Landing - Really?

Market Update

- Inflation ticks up again

- UFO sightings and not much concern (Aliens)

- Biden Eco Team shuffle

- Inflation comes in a bit hot - markets shrug

- What is making market move? Interesting insight

- Parade of Fed speakers this week - mostly trying to sell their story (markets deaf to it)

Happy Valentines Day!

- Great time for a donation of either $214 or even $14

- Anyone that donated $214 will get a personally signed copy of my book - The Disciplined Investor - Essential Strategies for Success

Soft landing

- A soft landing by a central bank is when "the central bank tightens monetary policy to fight inflation but does not cause a recession." If it causes a recession, then it is a hard landing.

- If there is a "soft landing" then there is going to be perpetual higher prices|

- How is that possible knowing the economic cycles?

Inflation Update

- CPI comes in at 0.50% today (prior was 0.1%)

- YoY 6.4%

- Some serious concern that inflation may be much more sticky than thought

---- Potential 0.25% increase for more meetings and higher terminal rate

- MARKETS DO NOT CARE

Morning Meeting

- Breakfast with big shot from Merrill today

- Message, it will be messy but just stay invested

- made some odd comments about valuation and earnings and just rushed past them

- AH had sidebar with him.. Asked about the comment of $200 projected earnings for SP500 -

-- Infers P/E forward of 20+

- Asked about his overweight US if better value elsewhere

--- He said that makes sense of course, yeah

----- These guys are full of crap

What is actually powering market?

- Slashes, Cuts and Layoffs

- - - Spending cuts, layoffs and other creative money saving

--- Let's take that apart and see what we get

- WHY???? Earnings for S&P 500 companies are down 23% YoY

Updates

- Yahoo plans to lay off more than 20% of its total 8,600 workforce as part of a major restructuring.

- Many other companies are cutting back on CapEX and other expansion plans

- Markets applauding when they see companies are practicing fiscal restraint

- Financial Services also cutting

Tech Layoffs

ECO Team Shuffle

- President Joe Biden has decided to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as his top economic adviser, with an announcement coming as soon as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said.

- In addition, according to the people, Jared Bernstein, a member of the Council of Economic Advisers, is considered likely to be named its chair, replacing Cecilia Rouse, who is stepping down.

BOJ Changes

- Kazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

- Kuroda was first appointed in March 2013

- Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have "global communication skills" and be able to coordinate closely with global peers

- There was some worry about Kishida not being as DOVISH as Kuroda (very difficult shoes to fill)

Starting with $20 Million on Jesus

- The “He Gets Us” ads, which directed viewers to a website to learn more about Jesus, were funded by Hobby Lobby CEO David Green and a string of other anonymous Christian donors. (Donor advised funds and

Superbowl mania - what we think (not that anyone cares)

China balloons, market bubbles and plenty of frothy convo.

An update on the Weekly Stock pick's game and the current Closest to the Pin

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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Warm Up

- Superbowl teams are set - Eagles and Kansas City (spread +1.5 KC)

- Markets have a very amateurish feel to them - crypto patterns of intraday rush and bust

--- Meme Stocks moving again

- Seems that the Church of Whats Hot Now - back in Biz (AI names)

-- Latest Google, Baidu and Microsoft all announced AI integration today (catnip for traders)

- There is a Sushi Terrorist on the loose

- Hustle Bros are latching on and sucking your wallets

- A new FED word to watch

Market Update

- Blowout Jobs report - what in tar-nation?

- Another fraud uncovered - India

- State of the Union Speech - going after the wealthy...

- Powell speaks - Whipsaw

Golf Fitting this week..

- Pretty interesting technology

- Callaway Paradym X

MARKETS!

- The S&P 500 index rose 1.6% last week with the communication services and technology sectors leading a broad climb amid better-than-expected quarterly results from some companies and a slower pace of rate increases from the Federal Open Market Committee.

- The market benchmark ended the week at 4,136.48, up from last Friday's closing level of 4,070.56. The index is now up 7.7% for the year to date but down 8.1% from a year ago.

- This feels like an attempt to move off bottom like everyone in the pool from March/April 2020. (But this is a different time)

Fed Speak

- There was irrational exuberance

- Transitory inflation

- Green shoots

- quantitative easing

- not thinking about thinking about thinking about...

- Average inflation targeting

- balance outlook

- And Now, introducing the work - disinflation... Powell used dozens of times in last speeches...

Earnings Update

- The slowdown in YoY revenue growth... Tesla: slowest since 2020 Amazon: 3rd slowest in company history Microsoft: slowest since 2017 Netflix: slowest in company history Google: 3rd slowest in company history Facebook: 2nd slowest in company history Apple: slowest since 2016

- BP on Tuesday reported a record profit of $28 billion for 2022 while boosting its dividend in a sign of confidence as it sharply raised overall spending plans and scaled back ambitions to reduce oil and gas output by 2030.

MEME Stocks Moving again

- BBBY (looking at potential bankruptcy) up 100%  today.

- AI Stocks on the move

- KOSS, GME, AMC all rocking....

 Fed decision  and Employment Report?

-- Odds rise after the the BLS employment report

- 500k + new hires (estimates were for +250k)

- labor participation rate rising

- 3.4% unemployment rate (lowest since 1969)

- USD jumps, Rates turn higher

- Thoughts?

State of the Union Speech

- CNBC reports President Biden will call for quadrupling the tax on stock buybacks and a 'billionaire minimum tax' in his State of the Union speech tonight

Earnings  and corporate

-Amazon, Google, Apple -all had questionable earnings reports

- Apple showed worst revenue groth in years and years - stock came off then buyers stepped in for some reason

- Amazon was down as AWS missed

- Google (Alphabet) just bad all the way around.

- FORD - ugly outlook, loss and not at all what GM looked like.

- Dell slashing 6,000 jobs (5% of workforce)

----!!! Company up initially on the news, then falls 3% during session

------ ALERT, Job cuts may no longer be seen as a good thing (Investors were rewarding companies)

- HP cutting 6,000 jobs

- Chipotle - Misses on earnings (top and bottom) - guidance soft (slowing growth/comps)

A new CTP announced - the first one for 2023.

There is a new buzzword and it moves stocks pretty substantially.

Big week ahead, earnings and the FED - coming at us at full speed.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Warm Up

- Superbowl teams are set - Eagles and Kansas City

- Big week for Earnings (big boys) and Fed rate decision (Wednesday)

- People perplexed - why are multiples staying so strong with all the info at hand?

- Expectations for Friday's employment report?

Market Update

- January ends on a good note. NAZ up about 10%, DJIA +2%, Long Bond ETF +7%, Bitcoin up 39%, Gold up 5.6%

- On Above -> yields down , dollar down (exact opposite of most of 2022)

- Car Companies - charging up the EV race

- EuroZone surprise ECO

- Interesting study on stock performance after earnings

 Fed decision?

-- Odds are leaning to a 0.25% increase

- Thoughts?

Earnings Stats

- So far this earnings season, companies in the S&P 500 that MISS estimates are outperforming the S&P by 1.4%

- On the flip side, those companies that have beat expectations have slightly underperformaed the S&P 500

- Per Goldman, stocks that have missed Q4 earnings estimates thus far are outperforming the S&P 500 by 140 bps the following session, performing better than stocks beating EPS, first time this has happened with data going back to 2006

- Theories?

More Earnings

- FVCBankcorp (FVCB) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.45 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

- This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -43.75%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.48, delivering a surprise of 2.13%.

- Stock smoked on the news....

GM Earnings

- General Motors (GM +8%) is trading higher after the automotive giant reported Q4 results this morning. GM reported big upside for both EPS and revenue. GM also guided FY23 EPS to $6.00-7.00, which was better than analyst estimates, and to FY23 adjusted EBIT of $10.5-12.5 bln.

- GM also announced it will make an equity investment of up to $650 mln in Lithium Americas (LAC). The two companies will jointly invest to develop the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, which is the largest known source of lithium in the US and the third largest in the world.

Cardboard

- Cardboard box demand drops to lowest level since 2008

-- Bad for Amazon?

- Meanwhile International Paper (IP) up 8%

SURPRISE!!

The euro zone grew 0.1% in the last quarter of 2022, according to preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday.

- Expectations were for a -0.1% .... so not that far off and potential that revisions could take it down

- The region has been under significant pressure in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as high food and energy costs compounded long-standing supply chain bottlenecks.

- Germany was the worst in the grouping - GDP down -0.2% in 4th quarter

AND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

- The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised upward its global growth projections for the year, but warned that higher interest rates and Russia's invasion of Ukraine would likely still weigh on activity.

- 2.9% is the updated outlook, a 0.2% increase. DOWN fro 3.4% expected back in 2022

- Much of the upgrade is probably due to CHINA reopening.

Follow Up - Robo Lawyer

- Last week DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder announced that the company's AI chatbot would represent a defendant in a U.S. court, marking the first use of artificial intelligence for this purpose.

Europe is not the hot investment ticket.

The markets like all the bad news - layoffs, weak economics.

A big trade in 2022 pays off - billions and billions.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Warm Up

- Mondays and Fridays - Let's just invest on those days.

- AH and China Covid Update

- Biggest Trade EVA

- Firings/layoffs/staff reductions the new "good news"

- Getting the feeling that we are all obsolete - layoffs and AI

Market Update

- Quick Check - Big action, not much change. Markets sit about where there were last week this time

- Debt Ceiling is the next screw up for this administration - will push an pull (for no reason)

- Activists are getting busy - Elliot in on a big name

- Europe in play again - All of a sudden

CTP STOCK?

China - COVID UPDATE

- The possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have been infected, a prominent government scientist said on Saturday.

- Do we have any working heories why they just gave up on COVID lockdowns?

Europe - Target prices raised

- Warmer temperatures and well-filled gas storage facilities mean there's less concern about power shortages and sky-high energy bills.

- JPMorgan has raised its forecast for euro zone first-quarter economic growth to 1% from a contraction of 0.5%

- Goldman upgrades as well

- $ net inflows to European equity funds last week - first time in a year

- In terms of valuations, European blue-chips are trading at a multiple of around 13, compared with a ratio of around 20 for the S&P 500

- Note: H&C has been continuing to add to non-US exposure for portfolios

EuroStocks

Euro and Gas Prices

Growth in EU

Big Play

- Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and one of history’s most successful financial plays.

- Citadel’s gain was the largest annual return for a hedge fund manager, surpassing the $15 billion that John Paulson generated in 2007 on his bet against subprime mortgages.

Activists at the Gate

- Salesforce shares gained more than 5% premarket Monday on news that activist investor Elliott Management has reportedly taken a multibillion-dollar stake in the cloud-based software giant.

- Closed up 3%

- If they are successful they will look for more "efficiencies" (job cuts) and potentially shedding low margin business sectors (Slack)

Regulators at the gate

-  The U.S. Department of Justice and several states filed a lawsuit against Google alleging that it illegally monopolized the market

for online ads through years of self-dealing, anticompetitive acquisitions, and forcing businesses to use the products and services that

it offers. The lawsuit could lead to a breakup of Google’s advertising business. Matt Kent, competition policy advocate for Public Citizen,

released the following statement:

- - “Nowhere is Big Tech’s monopoly power more apparent than in Google’s domination of the digital advertising market. One company cannot be permitted to control every layer of the market that, for better or worse, is the lifeblood of online commerce and our digital lives. The Justice Department is continuing its strong trend under AAG Kanter of taking on monopolists rather than negotiating with them.”

Here is the Green Light for Firing

- Wayfair — Recent news of layoffs and also reality of negative profits (aka losses) and poor financials... BUT

- The online retailer jumped more than 26% after being double upgraded to overweight from underweight by JPMorgan.

- The Wall Street firm cited improving market share trends and a better grasp on spending from management.

Financials reporting - mixed results. All much worse than a year ago.The HOPE trade is looking for a kindlier and gentler Fed.

China has an interesting update on their population.

Yield Curve inversion is real - pay attention.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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Warm Up

- Market in Rally Mode

- Climate Change at Davos, ESG defended (should be defunded)

- China releases population studies

- Mega Million > $1.35 Billion (ONE WINNER!)

- Biden classified docs - wow,  unforced error there.

Market Update

- Quick Check - January 2023 - SP500 +4.2%, TLT +7.22%, QQQ +7%, EEM 9%, BTC +28%, FXI +13.5%, GLD +5%

- USD Basket 2023 Down 1%, 3 Months - 9%

- Bank earnings - mixed, watching for margins and outlook for remainder

- Bond yields pricing in easier Fed - 10Y @ 3.5%

- EU hints on slowing rate hikes - maybe only 0.25% at next meeting.

Deflation Talk ?

Commodity Prices

Housing Deflation?

Housing Prices (CS20)

AH Tweet: 

- If you were wondering - not just a flash in the pan occurrence. Yield curve clearly and definitively inverted. Will discuss tomorrow night on DHUnplugged Podcast.

Inversion

Speaking of the USD

- Morgan Stanley cut its 2023 year-end forecast for the dollar index to 98, and expects the greenback's weakness to be more pronounced against the euro this year as worries about the severity of an economic downturn start to ease.

- They previously saw the index , which weighs the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, ending 2023 at 104.

- Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning and the USD is rapidly losing its carry advantage

USD Weakness? Change in Central Bank Policy? Bond Vigilantes attack

- Yields on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds breached the central bank's new ceiling on Friday in the market's most direct challenge yet to decades of uber-easy monetary policy.

- A wall of selling catapulted 10-year Japanese government bond yields 4 basis points higher to 0.54%, the highest since mid-2015 and above a recently widened band of -0.5% to +0.5% set by the BOJ in a shock decision just a few weeks ago.

- No more negative yields - anywhere in the world

----- This is where it gets interesting - The stress was evident across the yield curve and defied the BOJ's announcement on Friday of a fresh round of emergency buying worth around 1.4 trillion yen ($10.84 billion), when it already holds 80% to 90% of some bond lines.

--- BOJ owns more than 50% of all bonds issued from Japan (Eating your own arm because you are hungry)

Europe Off The Hook for Deep Recession?

- Europe experienced its second-warmest year on record in 2022, European Union scientists said on Tuesday, as climate change unleashed record-breaking weather extremes that slashed crop yields, dried up rivers and led to thousands of deaths.

- This was big concern due to Nat Gas Pricing and Oil (Russia related)

- - Now said that Europe may not enter recession....

---- In other words, they have no idea as early in the Winter and anything can happen - but betting warm conditions continue?

Back to Davos

- Climate activists protested in Davos on Sunday against the role of big oil firms at this week's World Economic Forum (WEF), saying they were hijacking the climate debate. (In other words, they are disagreeing with Climate activists and they don't like that)

- And here who is saying this: "We are demanding concrete and real climate action," said Nicolas Siegrist, the 26-year old organiser of the protest who also heads the Young Socialists party in Switzerland.

- With ESG crapola under scrutiny - there is an opening here

Greatest scam ever! Keep em' FAT!

2023 outlook - what comes next.

Updates on New Years and the weather in Cali.

Announcing the winner of the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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Warm Up

- Back at it! Happy New Year

- Fed still walking the walk

- Monday - Holiday

- Greatest scam ever! Keep em' FAT!

- New Speaker - Wore them down - McCarthy !

Market Update

- Rolling over into the EOY 2022

- Lots of talk about Higher Rates for Longer

- 3.5% Unemployment?

- Earnings start to roll in this week - JPM, WFC, C, BAC

- Recession - Yield Curve Still Inverted, Key Indicators Rolled over

California weather update

- What is going on?

 Asset Classes 2022

Asset Class 2022

Sectors  2022

Sectors 2022

S&P 500 Valuations

Simple Math

- 2 components of valuations made easy - earnings and confidence growth can be maintained

- Earnings - last year $215 - exp 2023 $225

- Multiple = Confidence of Growth (Currently at 17 forward)

- Recessions usually under 15 (way under)

Simple Math

Employment Report

- Better (lower) wage growth got markets moving

- 3.5% unemployment (from 3.7%)

- 235k +/- jobs added

- Manufacturing jobs lagging

- Markets offsided - moved up big after report digested

- US Dollar sank, metals rose, Yields came in

GDP Report

- Latest quarter shows expansion - but....

ISM Blended Composite

- Services finally moved under 50 - full contraction now

ISM Composite

Da' Fed

- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday stressed that central bank policymakers remain committed to wrestling high inflation under control, even though the methods to do so can prove to be politically unpopular.

- Speech today seems to warn that the Fed is not going to back down, even if it hurts the economy.

- "Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time," Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery at a conference held by Sweden's central bank. "But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy."

Musk News

- Richard Branson said that Elon showed up on his kitchen at 2:30 am ?

- Branson said he woke up in the middle of the night to find the SpaceX CEO barefoot in his kitchen downstairs with his fast asleep baby X Æ A-12 after a staff member had let him in. WHAT?????????????

- TESLA - Cut prices in China - Backlash!

---- Elon Musk was the second person ever to amass a personal fortune of more than $200 billion, breaching that threshold in January 2021, months after Jeff Bezos.

----- The Tesla Inc. chief executive officer has now achieved a first of his own: becoming the only person in history to erase $200 billion from their net worth.

TESLA

---- Disgruntled Tesla Inc. owners swarmed showrooms in China over the weekend to complain about missing out on another round of price cuts as the company tries to boost sales in the world’s biggest electric-vehicle market.

- Meanwhile - Tesla's Chinese suppliers jumped after the electric automaker slashed prices for some models in China.

---- Now almost 40% cheaper in China as compared to US prices)

----- Price cuts as China ends EV subsidy (news pounded China EV plays)

- Shares of Anhui Shiny Electronic Technology closed 8.8% higher and Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics gained nearly 9%. Zhejiang China Electrics closed 7.92% higher and Shandong Jinjing Science & Tech rose more than 6%.

Wells Fargo

- Instead of its previous goal of reaching as many Americans as possible, the company will now focus on home loans for existing bank an...

A chronological compilation, separated by subject from DHUnplugged Podcasts aired in 2022.

Some good laughs and fun throughout the year.

Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!

 

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show?

Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Looking back at 2020 we covered a good amount of ground. Some laughs and deep insights on the markets.

Listener Ryan Rediske put together a series of compilations by subject chronologically. He spent an enormous amount of time pulling clips from shows from 2021 and then stitched them together for this episode.

Follow Ryan on Twitter

 

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

A chronological compilation, separated by subject from DHUnplugged Podcasts aired in 2022.

Some good laughs and fun throughout the year.

Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!

 

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show?

Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Looking back at 2020 we covered a good amount of ground. Some laughs and deep insights on the markets.

Listener Ryan Rediske put together a series of compilations by subject chronologically. He spent an enormous amount of time pulling clips from shows from 2021 and then stitched them together for this episode.

Follow Ryan on Twitter

 

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Twitter in the news - what a surprise.

China Covid policy shaking things up.

Year end moves that we are watching.

Update on the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- Questioning integrity of Twitter

- Trump sells out NFT collection

- Losing streak for NAZ continues

- Throwing in the towel on 2022

Market Update

- Rolling over into the EOY 2022

- Lead Blanket Discussion

- Yen Rallies - Massive move after Surprise Move

- FedEx and Nike Earnings just released

- Economics Upcoming...

Earthquake in California 6.4?

- North of San Fran.......

Markets

- MTD Dec 2022

- SPY    - 6.5%

- QQQ   - 8%

- TLT   +0.52%

- IWM - 7.5%

- EEM  - 4.25%

Year To Date - By The Numbers

YTD 2022

Yen Surprise - Almost 4% gain TODAY

YTD 2022

Nike Earnings

- NIKE beats by $0.20, beats on revs, gross margin down 300 bps, which is better than its prior guidance of down 350-400 bps; North America up 30%, Greater China down 3%

- Stock up 12% A/H

FedEx Earnings

- FedEx beats by $0.36, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, reduces capital spending outlook by $400 mln; expects to generate FY23 cost savings of approx. $3.7 bln

- - - Second quarter results were constrained by continued demand weakness, particularly at FedEx Express.

- - - FedEx Express operating income declined 64% year-over-year due to lower global volumes, partially offset by an 8% package yield increase.

- - - FedEx Ground operating income increased 24% year-over-year, due primarily to a 13% yield increase and cost reduction actions.

- - - FedEx Freight operating income increased 32% year-over-year, driven by an 18% yield increase.

- Not a great outlook overall from management - but maybe better than feared?

- Stock up slightly A/H

Economic Data on Tap

- This week - Consumer Confidence (Tomorrow) GDP (3) Leading Indicators (Thursday), Durable Orders, PCE Prices and Personal income and Spending (Friday)

- Last week's Retail Sale (-.6%)

Retail Sales Highlights (Briefing.com)

- Total retail sales, which are not adjusted for price changes, declined 0.6% month-over-month in November (Consensus -0.1%)

- Retail sales, excluding autos, fell 0.2% month-over-month (Consensus +0.2%).

Key Factors

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales declined 2.3% following a 1.6% increase in October.

- Furniture and home furnishing store sales declined 2.6% following a 2.0% increase in October.

- Electronics and appliance store sales fell 1.5% following a 0.9% decline in October.

- Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers sales declined 2.5% following a 1.3% increase in October.

- General merchandise sales dipped 0.1%, paced by a 2.9% decline in department store sales, following a 0.3% decline in October.

- Clothing and clothing accessories store sales dropped 0.2% after being flat in October.

- Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book store sales declined 0.6% following a 0.7% increase in October.

- Gasoline station sales slipped 0.1% following a 4.8% increase in October.

Musk Items

- Please explain the use of polls to do his dirty work?

- Using "public" to choose outcome  by wording question/poll to what he expects?

- ---  Also, can't he just push the numbers to gain his desired outcome.

--- FOLLOW UP - Poll to see if he should step down as Twitter CEO

------ TSLA stock cap down $600-700 BILLION since high - much attributed to Twitter nonsense

-- -OH NOW - Voting on Policy will be only for Blue Members

Twitter Seeks Infusion

- Elon Musk’s team has reached out to investors to raise new funds for his struggling social media platform Twitter, one of the investors said.

Make up your mind - China unhappy about everything.

Yellen says inflation to cool. CPI comes in a bit better than feared.

What is in store for the end of 2022 and into 2023?

Announcing the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- Announcing Winner of latest CTP AND Entries for the CTP Cup 2022

- China lockdowns - scaring citizens

- End of the year - Goodbye 2022 - People still concerned about 2023

- Musk boo'd ay Dave Chapelle stand-up

- China - from zero-Covid to 100% Covid

- Markets convulsing....

- Sam Bankman Fried Jailed - or just Sam Bankman NotFree or Sam Bankman Jailed

Market Update

-The S&P 500 index fell 3.4% last week as investors worried that a recent round of better-than-expected economic data might prompt the Federal Reserve to keep its key rate higher for longer.

- All of the S&P 500's sectors fell last week.

-- Energy had the largest percentage drop, down 8.4%, followed by communication services, which slid 5.4%, and consumer discretionary, which fell 4.5%. Other decliners included financials, down 3.9%; and technology and materials, which slipped 3.3% each. The smallest decline came from utilities, which edged down 0.3%.

- All eyes are the Fed meeting this week - FOMC rate decision on Thursday (75% prob of a 50 basis point hike)

- CPI Report released today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing turn of events...

2022 Exit Plan

- Investors have good deal of capital losses

- End of year could see some selling to book those deductions

- - If that happens, look for a big January Effect mid January 2023

- Investors seem mentally exhausted from 2022 - get biz done now until end of year and "hope" for a more pleasant 2023

- 2023 may be  just as volatile as Fed not done

CPI Report

- Lighter than feared - markets go bananas on the print (November Core CPI 0.2% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3%)

-  Total CPI was up "only" 7.1%, versus 7.7% in October, and core-CPI was up "only" 6.0%, versus 6.3% in October.

- 10 year moves to 3.44%, USD drops hard, Stock futures soar

- CME Fed Funds Futures at 79% for a 50 bps hike; One month ago it was at 80.6% (Meeting on Dec 14)

CPI REPORT REACTION

CPI Report Reaction

One Musk

- Got on stage at Dave Chapelle stand up concert -

- Introduced as the world's richest person (which he no longer  is - Bernie Arnault took over - LVMH)

- Supposedly significant # of people booing - (San Francisco venue)

- Video of event ripped down off of Twitter (This is the problem - what happened to free speech?)

CTP for 2022 - Past Winners Only for the CUP

Marcus Galliford

David Norman

Paul Retzlaff

Simon Lutzenberger

Michael Devietro

Matheau Phillips

Rusty Shacklefordd

DJIA is the index you will be guessing - you have until 12/21/2022 to enter.

- Emails went out to all of you

- NO ONE ELSE ENTER - Your price guess will be deleted if you are not the someone mentioned above.

Not Pretty

Fixed (Broken) Income Returns

$600 = 1099K

- Venmo, Paypal over $600 will be reported to IRS

- Supposed to be for business transactions

--- IRS admits, some personal transactions may be coded incorrectly

- - BUT, all income is required to be reported, so this impacts you if you have not been compliant

- - - ODD - Zelle is not reporting any transactions to the IRS....

-- - - - Zelle itself said it does not have to declare transactions made through the payment service because it is a network that does not hold the funds

2023 - Collection Social Security?

- "Your Social Security benefits will increase by 8.7% in 2023 because of a rise in cost of living," the Social Security Administration states in the annual statem...