DHUnplugged Podcast

Key economic leaders in Europe downgraded future growth expectations and lowered their outlook for inflation. This is in the as they have provided record stimulus and gone so far as applying negative rates.

China is still slowing and earnings have been so-so at best. Where do we go from here?

In this episode we take a look at some  of the top business news as well as the DHUnplugged take on the media spin. What you should be looking for to make those all important investment decisions and what not to do – plus a few ideas from us to you…

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

It was a tough ending for the week as some of the big, well known names dissapointed investors with weak earnings and guidance – with the exception of Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN)…

Breaking news – Cruz suspends Presidential campaign

BOJ’s Kuroda decides to do nothing in the most recent rate meeting and the Yen goes haywire! Yen moves UP by 4% and Nikkei moves down by ~ 8% in 2 sessions as investors were all set for another round of massive stimulus from the BOJ. So why isn’t the Kitchen Sink approach to economics failing?

Yen Chart

If anyone thought that the global stimulus program may be over – look no futher that the surprise move by Australia last night – cut rates again – by 0.25%.

The default rate on energy H/Y bonds now at 13% – surpassing the previous record of 9.7% set in 1999. (Ultra Petroleum and Midstates petroleum are latest victims of low oil prices)

And… U.S. Steel: Moody’s downgrades U.S. Steel’s CFR to B3; assigns B1 rating to senior secured note offering; outlook negative.

In a “bold” move – Chipotle (CMG) is thinking about a breakfast burrito – Now where did they get that idea from?

Serepta Therapeutics – WOW – Upgraded as there is still hope – stock up 120% since 50% sell off..

Puerto Rico missed debt payment and likely default – will they be bailed out of this?

Now this is too much in every way: On Friday, Yahoo!  disclosed the packages that will be available to key executives if they are ousted in the event of a sale. Mayer will be paid $54.8 million in cash and stock if she’s removed from her job within a year of a sale. [LINK]

ANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the

DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Gap

Currently week CTP = Domino’s Pizza

Announcing new longer CTP … Intel (INTC) – 5/27/16

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)DHU’s Official Model – Vivi Jugo

Starbucks iced coffee contains too much ice, not enough coffee, lawsuit claims – “Starbucks is misleading customers who expect to receive the advertised amount of fluid ounces,” states the class-action lawsuit,

Not so great of a start for tech earnings. Apple (AAPL) is not keeping up with analyst’s expectations and shares are seeing a sharp move lower. Twitter (TWTR) also reports and disappoints as do other major names. Is this a trend or just a few hiccups?

Oil is climbing on speculation that inventory levels will finally start to drop – but is this something that is more of a pipe dream? Plenty of news and commentary on markets and other business news of interest.

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Oil continues to defy logic as it rises to $44.60 after hours today. Even with record production out of Iraq and news that inventories are expected to rise. The weak economic numbers today helped as the U.S. Dollar continues to lag.

Earnings shows that Tech may have come up a bit too far in the recent rally. Google (GOOG) missed and the stock slid from $750 to $708. Netflix also missed – now at $91.50. Microsoft (MSFT) off by 12% after its earnings outlook was rather disappointing. Apple (AAPL) down 9% as it missed both top and bottom line, guides revenues and margin below estimates – BUT raises dividend and raises buyback to $175 billion (this looks like a $50 billion increase)

– Total buyback of 30% of the company!!!!!

—– Is Apple turning into IBM?

Apple metrics:

* Q2 iPhones 51.2 mln vs 51.5 mln ests vs 61.2 mln last year. (First ever iPhone sales drop)

* Q2 iPads 10.2 mln vs 9.9 mln ests vs 12.6 mln last year.

* Q2 Macs 4.0 mln vs 4.6 mln ests vs 4.5 mln last year.

* China revenue fell 26% compared to a year ago

Apple suppliers seeing weakness following earnings include: SWKS -4.0%, QRVO -3.9%. CRUS -3.0% (also reported its own earnings), AVGO -2.2%, NXPI -2.0%, QCOM -1.1%, INVN -0.9%, TXN -0.6%.

EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS NEWS – S&P 500 FUTURES HOLDING UP (So far)

Twitter (TWTR) beat by $0.05 on bottom line but missed on top and outlook was weak. However they did add 5 million users and MAU was up for the quarter (stock down 12% after hours)

This is big news: Exxon Mobil (XOM): S&P lowers credit rating to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’, Outlook ‘Stable

– There are only 2 companies left in the U.S. that are AAA rated (MSFT and JNJ)

Baby boomers’ long reign over the kingdom of American demographics has finally come to an end: Millennials have officially surpassed them as the largest living generation in the U.S. That’s according to new population estimates released this month by the U.S. Census Bureau and analyzed by the Pew Research Center. (Millennials, defined by those born between 1981 and 1997, now number 75.4 million)

See this chart – What is Silent?

Population Chart

Guess what is coming tomorrow – Yes, Fed rate decision – what will they do? Stick save for failing earnings or more confusion?

ANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the

DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for GoPro (GPRO)

Currently week CTP = Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

Will announce new longer CTP next week…

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Ji...

No DEAL! Nothing was done at the bu Opec/Non-Opec gathering over the weekend, but oil continues to rise.

Earnings are starting to come in and so far there is nothing to get too excited about. Banks are beating estimates, but bad loans are growing and volumes of equity trading and fixed income are plummeting.

 

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Cue the Trumpets! DJIA over 18,000 and S&P 500 over 2100!

NADA in DOHA – No Deal on oil production freeze. Doomed from the start… However… Oil at $42

— Kuwait strike takes 1.6m barrels/day offline

— Nigeria has pipeline issue

— IRAQ production interrupted

Crude Chart

Saudi Arabia – threatened to sell all their U.S. Treasury holdings – estimated at $750 billion my some if the 28 pages of redacted information on the 9/11 report is released. Also pending legistlation that would allow for victims of 9/11 to directly sue… (Not going to pass – or is it?)

IBM now racks up 16 consecutive quarters of declining revenue. EPS beat, but company is still suffering – Stock up near $143 (was $117 in February)

Yahoo! – Verizon still seems to be the front-runner in the “bidding” for Yahoo! assets/company. What does this do for them? Seems like the old Time Warner /AOL deal.

Seeing more sporting goods stores file for bankruptcy – The owner of Eastern Mountain Sports, which has 13 stores in Massachusetts, and Bob’s Stores, which has 11 Bay State locations, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, with debts over $500 million.

Sport Chalet has announced the closure of all its stores in the next several weeks. The Southern California-based sporting goods company owns 47 stores in about 50 locations in California, Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The company issued an online statement saying that its stores have begun the process of closing on April 16, but it offered no explanation. The company stopped selling merchandise online but its retail stores will remain open for several weeks in order for customers to use their rewards and gift cards.

— At the same time there is rumor that Bass Pro Shops is possibly looking to buyout Cabelas (CAB)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year, posted a 60 percent drop in profit as the firm reported its lowest revenue for a first quarter since Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein took the top post.

Goldman Sachs Chart

Netflix (NFLX) – earnings out and while the company beat expectations, the outlook was miserable – at best. Stock down 11% to $96 after saying that international growth will expand much less that expected and investors seeing more competition from Amazon and others.

Intel (INTC) earnings were messy. Overall not a good outlook for the next quarter or so. Reducing outlook, cutting 11% of workforce and announced restructuring. Shares slipping again down to the $30 support level.

ANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the

DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Transocean LTD

Earnings will be in the spotlight as the season has officially opened. It is time to find out if the fundamentals match the technical conditions.

Chatbots are the all the rage – Microsoft’s failure and Facebook’s foray are on the list of topics we discuss.

Crude surges as inventories see the biggest drawdown for 2016 and rumors are floating about regarding the potential for a production freeze by Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Oil surges above $42 on hopes of a production freeze (again) and the 4+ million barrel drawdown we saw last week. Also, rig counts keep falling and short sellers of the commodity are getting squeezed. Equity markets were not that happy – losses of 1%+ across major indices.

Weekly Crude Inventories

Oil Price Surge Chart

NYC Birthday Update – JCD

— News: Headlines today that Saudi Arabia and Russia have come to a consensus on an oil output freeze; Markets and oil spiking in reaction (WTI Crude spikes to $41.60+ or 3.5%)

Earnings season begins! Alcoa (AA) beat the $0.03 estimate by $0.04 but revenues missed and guided down aluminum production for the coming year. Many of the big banks start to report this week as well. (JPM) (BAC) (WFC)

Goldman Sachs (GS) finally has been forced to pay up for their part in deceiving investors about the mortgages that were sold leading up to and during the mortgage meltdown/crisis. $5 billion is the cost – stock was up on the news…

Tesla (TSLA) – Took deposits on more than 350,000 Model 3 the first week. Production problems? (Just announced, a recall of 2,700 Model X)

— Base price of the Model 3 ~ $35,000. With a $7,000 tax credit, that makes cost of car very very cheap!

IMF Fund sees world GDP expanding 3.2% in 2016, 3.5% in 2017 (They have poor record of forecasting and usually err on the optimistic side)

 

ANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the

DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for US Steel (X) and Michael Kors (KORS)

Currently week CTP = Transocean LTD

ANNOUNCING – GoPro (GPRO)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)

Sunglasses from Spitfire and more!

DHU’s Official Model – Vivi Jugo

U.S. government putting together regulations to stop/inhibit inversions. Allergan/Pfizer deal is busted.

— Obviously there is now the overhang that U.S. will be putting the clamps on corporate tax avoidance – what is next? Overseas profits?

— U.S.

Another day, another speech. This time from Chairman Yellen who now says that inflation readings are transitory and the Fed has more scope for further accommodative actions. In other words : MORE STIMULUS as their outlook is looking wrong again. So, if at first (or second, third etc) you don’t succeed, try try again.

Whether or not markets continue to hold on to the notion that a carrot dangle will magically propel the economy is uncertain, but what other choices are there?

GDP revisions, employment report on the horizon and plenty of news you need to know…. All packed into this episode.

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Markets have been trading sideways – up to resistance and then slowly stagnating. Volume has been anemic. Monday volume lowest of the year. Then….

Yellen speaking today in NY – dovish as can be… Here are a few of the highlights

* Importantly, this forecast is not a plan set in stone that will be carried out regardless of economic developments. Instead, monetary policy will, as always, respond to the economy’s twists and turns so as to promote, as best as we can in an uncertain economic environment, the employment and inflation goals assigned to us by the Congress.

* Looking forward however, we have to take into account the potential fallout from recent global economic and financial developments, which have been marked by bouts of turbulence since the turn of the year.

* The Committee continues to expect moderate economic growth over the medium term accompanied by further labor market improvement.

* There is a consensus that China’s economy will slow in the coming years…

* The inflation outlook has also become somewhat more uncertain since the turn of the year, in part for reasons related to risks to the outlook for economic growth.

* Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC’s ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate back to near zero.

Naturally, post comments markets shot higher – except banks

Bank Stocks

What the Yellen commentary is saying is that there is a lot more to fear about the global economy than we think… Her speech had plenty to say about it and it is not usual that the Fed discusses things so overtly if they are not big issues.

Another example: Japan’s industrial production dropped the most since 2011 in February, as falling exports sapped demand and a steel-mill explosion halted domestic car production at Toyota Motor Corp. Output slumped 6.2 percent after rising 3.7 percent in January, the trade ministry said on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 5.9 percent drop.

Small business hiring hot spots. See chart below…

As earnings season approaches, companies will be in their blackout periods, unable to buy their stocks through certain repurchase plans. Without that added liquidity, what will result?

U.S. markets are flirting with unchanged for the year as the massive rally  over the past few weeks has pushed valuations back into the danger zone, but with central banks showing more desire to stimulate, it may not matter… or will it?

Just last week, the Fed sent a confusing message to markets, now we are “only” to expect 2 rate hikes this year – so much for following the economic indicators.

All this and the winners of the latest Closest to the Pin…..

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Terrorists hit Belgium… Once again Europe is the center of attention – just days after the capture of the Paris bombings “mastermind”. Two separate attacks, ISIS claims responsibility. U.S. Markets shrug off – Europe modestly lower.  (Recall that the last couple of attacks saw massive market rallies)

— Of course the usual rumors of other potential acts circulated today as shorts/bears try to push on the news – none were confirmed.

Global Economics – Take a look at the stats for Manufacturing..

Markit PMI Table

Valaent Pharma (VRX) – Remember last week, we questioned whether the CEO’s 2-month leave for “pneumonia” was for real? Well… Monday it was announced that CEO Pearson will be leaving the company. Ackman was appointed to board. Stock up 15% in reaction. (Note: CEO leaving does not seem to be good news as it may lead to more revelations about some of the internal issues with the company…)

VRX Chart

Nike (NKE) has announced that a self-tying ( or self adjusting) shoe will be out by the end of the year. Now that seems to be progress!

— Nike earnings released today  (stock down 5%++ after hours…)

– NIKE Q3 EPS $0.55 vs. $0.48 Capital IQ Consensus; rev $8.032 vs. $8.2 bln consensus

– NIKE Futures Orders +12%; +17% in constant currency vs. estimates in the mid to high teens ex-FX

— Futures as reported (ex-FX): North America +10%, W. Eur +16% (+23%), C & Eur +5% (+14%), China +28% (+36%), Japan +23% (+24%), Emerging -3% (+14%).

IMPORTANT: Sales will increase by a high-single-digit percentage during the next fiscal year, the company said on a conference call Tuesday. Analysts had projected a rate of about 10 percent for that period. Earnings will rise in the low teens, Nike said, compared with an estimate for growth of about 15 percent.

Nike’s “Back to the Future” Shoe

Will liquidity dry up like it did the first quarter before and during earnings season? Retail still pulling out of equities?

Deutsche Bank reports:

Buyback blackout period starts Monday. An increasing number of S&P 500 companies will enter into their blackout period starting next week, about a month before the earnings season kicks into high gear in the third w...

It has been a busy couple of weeks while DHunplugged was on a short vacation. Markets rally, oil climbs and central banks are getting more aggressive.

China is still in terrible shape, but investors are still looking for more stimulative actions to come to the rescue.

It will be a big week upcoming with a busy economic calendar and the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday…

And.. What is with the Unicorns? Write-downs happening quickly as there is a sense that valuations are way to rich for many of these names.

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Trip to Panama – had some interesting foods and experiences. (Plenty of Ceviche, Cow Foot Soup, Tripe and more…)

– Panama casinos… 5.5% cash check out charge!

– Diving 2 oceans on one day!

Daylight Savings Time is here! Happy? – Plenty of stories about problems related to the time change… More accidents, less productivity. Really? LINK

Prem Watsa, the investor who heads Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. and foretold a drop in technology company shares two years ago, is now saying “I told you so.” In his annual letter to shareholders, Watsa said he expects tech stocks from Twitter Inc. to Yelp Inc. to fall even further — as much as 90 percent from their peak in the last two years. Now calling former UNICORNS = UNICORPSES

Weird story – A day after indited on violations of Sherman Act, U.S. shale pioneer Aubrey McClendon dies in suspicious auto accident.

— Data shows he hit speeds of 89 miles an hour seconds before his Chevy Tahoe slammed into a concrete bridge earlier this month in a fatal crash, according to a report issued Monday afternoon by the Oklahoma City Police Dept. McClendon’s SUV, which was fitted to run on compressed natural gas instead of gasoline, crossed the center lane more than 60 yards before the crash. He wasn’t wearing a seat belt, the Oklahoma City Police said. Data recovered from the vehicle’s black box showed that McClendon tapped his brakes several times before the crash, but didn’t truly brake hard. His Tahoe hit the bridge at roughly 78 miles an hour.

Just as the markets turn, several big brokerages are slashing the year-end price target for S&P 500. Morgan Stanley is the latest with a price target of 2,050. Do we view this as a contrary indicator?

OOFAH – The massive rise for some energy and materials companies over the past couple of weeks has been amazing. (and the fall this week)

— Past 30 days: Halliburton +22% , Helmrich & Payne +29%,  Chesapeake Energy +176%, Marathon Oil +49%, Linn Energy +157%,  Continental Resources +43%…. (Some relief as companies get reprieve with advancing oil prices and secondary offerings)

Politics: Trump rallies cancelled as violent protests have begun. This is going to be a nightmare… What happened today? Who will drop out?

Twitter and social media – how to make sense of the financial world? So many players trying to advance their own agendas…

— Afterthefact’ers, toldyouso’ers, vague range gang, complainers, pumpanddump’ers, pompous parade, clickandsell’ers, negative nellies, positive posse…

Auto-Upgrade? As Microsoft auto-upgrades more PCs to Windows 10, some users are complaining that they weren’t adequately notified. Reports of unwanted Windows 10 upgrades have been circulating for the past few days on Reddit and Twitter, etc.

New trend?

The debate over the effectiveness of central bank actions is raging on. Once an investor’s best friend, confidence is waning and markets are reacting. Following the best week of 2016, equities are once again seeing weakness as oil falls on OPEC comments.

The bearish position is strengthening, but should this be a sign to start to nibble again on stocks? Is this a contrary indication or something that we should heed?

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Markets moved out of the correction as of Monday, only to slump again on Tuesday. Oil to blame? Iran essentially saying that they think price freeze is stupid/Saudi Arabia won’t cut production. Oil got smoked on that news as well as fact that yesterday’s rally was not what it seemed….

Market Update Midday 2/23

Coming into the last few days of the month – do you think that the markets will be able to turn green? Most major indices are off slightly…

– Indices are trading very technical, the 2,050 level was key resistance and that was hit with selling. Today, markets stopped on daily   support and held

Not surprised: Consumer confidence falls in latest reading. Middle income confidence fell the most since October 2008.

– Still, Fed officials are talking up more rate hikes for this year.

Listening to the news, TV, reading… Bearish commentary is everywhere…. What does that mean?

Fitbit (FIT) announced earnings. Stock down 19%on weak guidance. (Looks like same game-plan as GoPro)

– Look for these one-hit-wonders as potential rally and fade candidates in the future.

Politics – Jeb Bush is out!

Lumber Liquidators (LL) Unbelievable: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said earlier this month that tests on the company’s products showed minimal health risks, which renewed confidence in the chain as the stock rebounded. Now the agency has corrected those findings because of the math error (used feet instead of meters?) , saying formaldehyde exposure is three times higher than previously projected, although the risk of cancer remains low. Stock was crushed on Monday.

Home Depot (HD) out with earnings – company still looking good. Lowes (LOW) out tomorrow… Which do we prefer?

Do we want to chime in about the Apple/Feds rigmarole?

Oil plunge is starting to hit banks and energy sector companies. While stocks were suffering,  not much in the way of bankruptcy or otherwise. Now starting to see headlines about sales, div reductions, massive earnings shortfalls… (Massive build after the close tonight)

JP Morgan investor day – investment banking fees down 25% over year and sees some need to add to the reserves for bad debt related to oil related debt. Stock down 4% on the negative commentary from company

 

** ANNOUNCING THE FIRST (new and improved)  DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest **

Walt Disney (DIS) …  Listeners will be  completing against John and Andrew

Now Open for entries through March 2nd (Final Price Date: March 11)

Some oddball Andrew stories:

Saw a raccoon in front of my house last night – called wildlife control and they gave me a sure fire way to get ride of it.

Had a very nice Uber driver. Woman driver had to take me to a boat ramp to pick up my car.

Oil soars on news that there will be a production cut, then sours after the announcement of a production freeze. Waiting on the “left-hook” devaluation from China after they pledged to keep the Yuan strong.

Draghi promises the world that more stimulus is on tap and Japan continues to believe that negative rates are the answer to their economic woes. Meanwhile, there is some chatter that the Presidential candidates are the reason that markets have been in a downward spiral. More on this and other important topics.

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Good is bad, Bad is good – Japan markets finished last week down 14.5% after the Yen rallies to 111/USD. GDP drops 1.4% YoY and that was enough to drop the Yen back to 114/USD and markets rally 5%.

Japan GDP Chart

U.S Markets finished lower for the week, even with the Friday surge of 2%. This week starts off on a different note as central bankers are jawboning the markets. ECB’s Draghi once again stating that he may add stimulus in March and Japan’s Kuroda talking up the benefits of negative deposit rates.

The 2-Speed economy – Manufacturing related continues to suffer:February Empire Manufacturing -16.6 vs -9.9 consensus; January -19.4

Meanwhile…. China is out with commentary that the RMB (YUAN) should not weaken from here. Yuan had one of its best rallies (strengthen) on record after markets re-opened from the New year holiday. Waiting for the left-hook devaluation… (Skeptical?)

Yuan Fizzle Chart

China loves the movies…. China’s retail sales over the Spring Festival holiday rose 11.2 percent from the same vacation period a year earlier, with cinemas posting sharp increases in box-office sales, the country’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement Saturday.

** More info and an Update… Announcing the DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest –

The first CTP will start in March…  Listeners will be  completing against John and Andrew **

 

The ECB Council voted today to scrap the €500 note. They say that they are doing this to counter black market and nefarious uses for higher denomination bills. The reality is that taking it out of the system will effectively reduce the cash in circulation by upwards of 30%. (Will this help gold, metals and alternatives like Bitcoin?) *** Larry Summers floating the idea of scrapping the $100 bill.

Oil… Check out inventories: (note – Saudi Arabia and Russia met and implemented a FREEZE rather than production cuts)

Crude Inventory Chart

Chatter that current Pres candidates are the reason that markets are acting poorly. Now on the front cover of Barrons this week…

Barron’s Cover

Here we go… Apple (AAPL) planing massive bond sale. 30-year bond may yield 2.

CDS – Credit Defaults Swaps blowing out in Europe as negative deposit rates are having a terrible impact. Tech stocks blowing up as earnings and outlook are really concerning investors.

Oil continues to get hammered and now below $30 per barrel – even with the rumors flying around that there will be a special/emergency meeting with OPEC/Non-OPEC countries in an effort to stabilize prices.

Japan market crumble, bond yields are dropping and all eyes are on the Fed’s next move. Listen in as we dive deep into the real news that matters most for investors.

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Japan reeling after the BOJ implements negative rate policy – Yen up 5% since 1/29/16 and markets tanking (Nikkei dropped 5.5% last night) — Japan 10-year falls below 0% for first time

FACT – Negative rates are not good for markets – Central Banks are now tinkering with tools they have no idea what outcome will be. (Yen rallying again tonight – now at 114.31)

Yen Chart

The biggest concern right now may be that  China devalues the Yuan after the Chinese New year Holiday.

The global financial situation is getting worse as seen by the Contingent Default Swaps (CDS) – remember those?

CDS Spreads Chart

Interesting: Last year, the number of dividend reductions far surpassed 2008.

Dividend Reduction Trend

Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six ‘Top Trade’ Calls for 2016 – Inflation, dollar bullish call, Emerging market stocks, U.S. banks and a few others. So much for the big boy’s being right…

There has been a lots of talk about a potential U.S. recession. There are lots of voices that are protesting that concept. There are some areas that are clearly in recession.

ISM Composite Chart

Oil at $30 a barrel is blowing a hole in the insurance that U.S. shale drillers bought to protect themselves against a crash. Companies including Marathon Oil Corp., Noble Energy Inc., Callon Petroleum Inc., Pioneer Natural Resources Co., Rex Energy Corp. and Bonanza Creek Energy Inc. used a strategy known as a three-way collar that doesn’t guarantee a minimum price if oil falls below a certain level, company records show. While three-ways can be cheaper than other hedges, they leave drillers exposed to sharp declines.

May be some market moving potential as Janet Yellen is giving testimony to congress over the next few days. Will the Fed dare to hike rates again anytime soon? (U.S. yields have slid since the rate hike)

What is this all about? A record 4,279 individuals renounced their U.S. citizenship or long-term residency in 2015, according to data released by the Treasury Department.

LinkedIn (LNKD) stock tumbles 50% after earnings release. Are advertisers feeling the pinch and finally giving up on some social media? (FB,