Die ekonomie minuut

Hierdie jaar is Amerikaanse ekonomiese aanwysers belangrik vir die wêreldekonomie en hulle ekonomiese groeikoers en inflasiekoers raak ons hier in Suid-Afrika direk. Die rede is dat hulle groot en likiede finansiële markte het en beleggers dink dat hulle rentekoers op staatseffekte stel die standaard vir ʼn risikovrye-opbrengs. So wanneer hulle rentekoerse styg versterk die dollar en almal anders se rentekoerse moet ook styg om in pas te bly.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

In die kommentaar oor die mini-begroting duik die staatskuld gereeld op. Jy sou dalk gelees of gehoor het dat die staatskuld nie te veel moet word nie. Die owerheid moet rente betaal voor enige ander besteding en ʼn te groot rentelas beteken daar is minder geld oor vir ander besteding. As die rentekoers hoër is as die groeikoers van die ekonomie, word die rentebetalings en omvang van die skuld maklik te veel. Maar daar word nooit veel gesê oor die feit dat die onderliggende staatseffekte van tyd tot tyd afgelos moet word nie. Die week het Standard Chartered daaroor gewaarsku.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

In the comments on the mini-budget, the public debt is mentioned frequently. You might have read or heard that public debt should not become too much. The state must pay interest before any other spending and a too large interest burden means there is less money left for other spending. If the interest rate is higher than the growth rate of the economy, the interest payments and the size of the debt easily become too big. But a lot less is said about the fact that the underlying government bonds must be redeemed from time to time. This week Standard Chartered warned about this.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

This week's important economic indicator is not a data point, but the US Federal Reserve Bank's decision on their policy interest rate. What happens in the US has an influence on exchange rates and financial markets all over the world. We know that the US inflation rate is high and to fight this, the Federal Reserve Bank yesterday increased the policy rate by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. It is now the highest it has been since January 2008.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Hierdie week se belangrike ekonomiese aanwyser is glad nie ʼn datapunt nie, maar die Amerikaanse Federale Reserwebank se besluit oor hulle beleidsrentekoers. Wat in die VSA gebeur het ‘n invloed op wisselkoerse en finansiële markte reg oor die wêreld. Ons weet dat die Amerikaners se inflasiekoers hoog is en om dit te beveg het die Federale Reserwebank gister vir die vierde keer in ʼn ry die beleidskoers met 75 basispunte verhoog. Dit is nou die hoogste wat dit was sedert Januarie 2008.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Economists are concerned about how the economy is doing in this second half of the year. We know that the economy grew in the first quarter and contracted in the second. Data on the third and fourth quarters are slowly becoming available and in it, one sees the impact of slower growth of the world economy, high inflation and interest rates, and also load shedding. New figures for ABSA's purchasing managers' index, Naamsa's new vehicle sales data and private sector credit extension show how difficult it is to gauge how things are going.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ekonome is maar bekommerd oor hoe dit met die ekonomie gaan in hierdie tweede helfte van die jaar. Ons weet dat die ekonomie gegroei het in die eerste kwartaal en ingekrimp het in die tweede. Data oor die derde en vierde kwartaal word stadigaan beskikbaar en daarin sien mens die impak van stadiger groei van die wêreldekonomie, hoë inflasie en rentekoerse, en ook beurtkrag. Nuwe syfers vir ABSA se aankopebestuurdersindeks, Naamsa se nuwe voertuig verkope-data en privaatsektor kredietverlening wys hoe moeilik dit is om te bepaal hoe dinge gaan.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

I spent so much time talking about the mini-budget last week that other economic indicators were left behind. Fortunately, the Bureau of Economic Research's weekly newsletter provides a good summary of the week that was and the indicators to watch this week.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ek het die afgelope week so baie oor die mini-begroting gepraat dat ander ekonomiese aanwysers agterweë gebly het. Gelukkig gee die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se weeklikse nuusbrief ʼn goeie opsomming van die week wat verby is en die aanwysers om dop te hou hierdie week.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

This past week there was a celebration over the apparent end of the Gauteng e-toll project. In the mini-budget, the Minister of Finance announced that the national government and Gauteng provincial government will take over the debt and interest obligations and that maintenance of the highway network must be financed by the province in the future with tolls or from other sources. However, the ANC government in the province has said on numerous occasions that it is not right that the province's residents have to pay e-toll for their highways. So it looks like the end of the system. This has important implications.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.