Die ekonomie minuut

Here and there are rays of light in the darkness that show that pressure on prices is starting to decrease – though analysts are expecting July’s inflation number that will be announced this week, to be even higher. Yet, by almost September, consumers are under pressure, production is decreasing, commodity prices have started to fall, and we are even paying a little less for petrol. People are holding their breath that we might make a soft landing where prices start to fall before the economy shrinks too much, but last week the Reserve Bank poured some cold water on us. They are naturally concerned that the shocks to fuel and food prices will expand into a sustained process of increases in wages and prices and they explained this in Parliament on Wednesday.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Hierdie week se belangrike ekonomiese datapunt was Juniemaand se kleinhandelverkopesyfers. Dit het op ʼn jaar-tot-jaar basis met 2,5% ingekrimp en verbruikers voel die impak van ʼn hoë inflasiekoers en stygende rentekoerse. Business Day het die syfers nageslaan dit wys dat van Januarie tot einde Junie het die petrolprys met R6,45 per liter gestyg, voedselprysinflasie was 9% en die prima-uitleenkoers het toegeneem van 7,5% tot 8,25%. Verbruikersvertroue het ook afgeneem in die tweede kwartaal. Dit het twee belangrike gevolge.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

This week's key economic data point was June's retail sales figures. Retail sales contracted by 2.5% on a year-on-year basis and consumers are feeling the impact of a high inflation rate and rising interest rates. Business Day checked the figures and it shows that from January to the end of June the petrol price rose by R6.45 per litre, food price inflation was 9% and the prime lending rate increased from 7.5% to 8.25%. Consumer confidence also declined in the second quarter. This has two important consequences.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

People everywhere are making predictions about what will happen in the future, but how much of it is cheap talk? If you are convinced that the Springboks will beat the Wallabies you can bet money on it, but what about all the predictions about interest rates and how much they will rise this year? In the US there is now a market for this, and it is known as Kalshi.com.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Oral is mense besig om voorspellings te maak oor wat in die toekoms gaan gebeur, maar hoeveel daarvan is goedkoop praatjies? As jy oortuig is dat die Springbokke die Wallabies gaan klop kan jy geld daarop verwed, maar hoe gemaak met al die voorspellings oor rentekoerse en met hoeveel dit hierdie jaar nog gaan styg? In die VSA is daar nou ‘n mark vir dit, en dit staan bekend as Kalshi.com.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Dit is die beste om aan die begin van hierdie episode te sê ek is nie ʼn landboukundige nie. Ek volg wel die nuus dat die Minister van Landbou gister aangekondig het dat as gevolg van bek-en-klouseer word daar vir 21 dae ʼn verbod ingestel op die verskuiwing van beeste. Dit beteken dat boere nie beeste kan skuif tussen weidings nie en dat geen veilings gehou kan word nie. Waar die kontanvloei dun is gaan dit druk plaas op individuele boere en vir die res van ons kan dit die verskaffingsketting van beesvleis ontwrig. Dit het verseker ekonomiese gevolge, maar kan ekonomie dalk andersins lig ook op die saak werp?

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

It is best to say at the beginning of this episode that I am not an agronomist. I do follow the news that the Minister of Agriculture announced yesterday that due to foot-and-mouth disease, a ban on the movement of cattle will be introduced for 21 days. This means that farmers cannot move cattle between pastures and that no auctions can be held. Where cash flow is thin this will put pressure on individual farmers and for the rest of us, it can disrupt the supply chain of beef. It certainly has economic consequences, but can economics also shed light on the matter in other ways?

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Mens kan sê dat die rand-dollar wisselkoers is op ʼn wipplank rondom R16 vir ʼn dollar. Vroeg in Juniemaand het dit R15,30 gehaal maar teen middel Julie was dit R17,15. Daarna het die rand weer versterk tot rondom R16,20 verlede week. Ons sal almal graag wil weet wat volgende gaan gebeur. Dink maar aan die landboubedryf waar die somerplantseisoen se insetkoste, soos brandstof, beinvloed word deur die wisselkoers en die uiteindelike mielieprys ook. Ek sê nie ek weet nie, maar daar is ʼn paar dinge waaraan mens kan dink.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

One could say that the rand-dollar exchange rate is on a seesaw around R16 to a dollar. In early June it reached R15,30 but by mid-July it was R17,15. After that, the rand strengthened again to around R16.20 last week. We would all like to know what will happen next. Just think of the agricultural industry where the summer planting season's input costs, such as fuel, are influenced by the exchange rate and the eventual maize price is as well. I'm not saying I know, but there are a few things one can think of.

Verlede week is die laaste van die tweede kwartaal se produksie-aanwysers bekend gemaak met data oor produksie in die vervaardigingsektor en mynbou in Juniemaand. Mynbouproduksie het vir die vyfde maand in ʼn ry afgeneem en jaar-op-jaar was uitset 8% laer. Vervaardigingsaktiwiteit het met 3,5% afgeneem in Juniemaand.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.