Die ekonomie minuut

In the financial markets, there is concern about the possibility of a recession in the US. Oil and food prices are high, and supply chain disruptions in China remain a problem. In the US, consumer price inflation is now at 8.5% and it will be necessary to keep raising interest rates. The danger is that the Federal Reserve may increase it too quickly or too sharply and that it will plunge the economy into recession. An indicator of this concern is the difference between the interest rates on 2-year and 10-year Treasury bills. Recently, the yield curve has reversed. Two-year rates were higher than ten-year rates, and over the last sixty years, this was a sign of recession. How worried should we be?

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ons weet dat kospryse die hoogte inskiet en nou is hoender in die nuus. Die Vereniging vir vleis-invoerders en -uitvoerders het vandeesweek gevra vir 'n drie jaar opskorting van tariewe op ingevoerde hoender. Hulle voer aan dat die tariewe die prys van ingevoerde hoender verhoog sodat verbruikers hoë pryse betaal terwyl plaaslike produsente goeie winste maak. Die Pluimveevereniging het hierdie uitspraak verwerp en sê dat die koste van hoenderprodukte styg as gevolg van stygende graanpryse. Die opskorting van die tariewe en die invoer van meer en goedkoper hoender sal die bedryf knou en tot werkverliese lei. Dit lyk na 'n eenvoudige kwessie: goedkoop invoer wat die verbruiker bevoordeel teenoor plaaslike produksie en werkgeleenthede met die verbruiker wat meer betaal. Maar ongelukkig is dit meer ingewikkeld.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

We know that food prices are soaring and now chicken is in the news. This week the Association for meat importers and exporters called for a three-year suspension of import tariffs on imported chicken. They argue that the tariffs raise the price of imported chicken so consumers are paying high prices while domestic producers make good profits. The Poultry Association rejected this saying that the cost of chicken products is increasing because of rising grain prices. Suspending the tariffs and importing more and cheaper chicken will put the industry on a declining trajectory and lead to job losses. It seems like a simple issue: cheap imports that benefit the consumer vs local production and jobs with the consumer paying more. But unfortunately, it is more complicated.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ons het onlangs gehoor hoe gebrekkige spoorweg-infrastruktuur steenkool-uitvoer aanbande lê, en hoe probleme by Kaapstad se hawe vrugte-uitvoer bemoeilik, en dan is daar natuurlik die negatiewe impak wat beurtkrag op die ekonomie het. Die afgelope was die padnetwerk ook in die kollig. Jare se gebrekkige instandhouding, hoë volumes van swaarvragmotorverkeer, en ʼn baie goeie somerreenseisoen het gelei tot die agteruitgang (en in sommige gevalle disintegrasie) van veral provinsiale paaie.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

We recently heard how poor railway infrastructure is limiting coal exports, and how problems at Cape Town's harbour are hampering fruit exports, and then there is the negative impact that load shedding has on the economy. Recently, the road network has also been in the spotlight. Years of poor maintenance, high volumes of heavy truck traffic, and a very good summer rainy season have led to the deterioration (and in some cases disintegration) of especially provincial roads.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Verlede week was 'n stil week vir mense wat aanwysers dophou. S&P Global het hulle aankopebestuurdersindeks vir Suid-Afrika vir Maartmaand bekend gemaak. Dit het tot 51,4 gestyg, vanaf 50,9 in Februarie. Dit is aangedryf deur verbeterings in plaaslike vraag. Daar was maatskappye wat aangedui het dat hulle aanbodbeperkings ervaar as gevolg van Covid-inperkings in China. Maatskappye het die aankope van insette verhoog, selfs al neem hul koste toe.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Last week was a quiet week for indicator watchers. We did see S&P Global’s South African PMI number for March and it increased to 51.4, up from 50.9 in February. This was driven by improvements in local demand. There were firms that reported experiencing supply constraints due to Covid-induced lockdowns in China. Firms increased purchases of inputs even as their costs increase.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ons hoor gereeld berigte oor hoe voedselpryse styg. Partykeer klink dit asof die boere nou baie geld maak, of dat kleinhanelaars ons uitbuit en die kommentators vergeet gerieflikheidshalwe dat die prys van die kos op die rak ook afhang van die internasionale pryse van voedselkommoditeite. Verlede week het die VN se Voedsel en landbou-organisasie (die FAO) hulle voedselprysindeks gepubliseer en dit gee mens ʼn idee van die grootkragte wat voedselpryse beinvloed.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

We regularly hear reports of food prices rising. Sometimes it sounds as if the farmers are making a lot of money now, or that retailers are exploiting us, and the commentators conveniently forget that the price of the food on the shelf also depends on the international prices of food commodities. Last week, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published its food price index and it gives one an idea of the major forces that influence food prices.

* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek het gister ʼn verslag bekend gemaak wat Suid-Afrika se vordering om ontwikkelingsdoelwitte te bereik, evalueer vir 2021. Dit is ʼn baie interessante oorsig oor wat aangaan in die land.

* Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.