Die ekonomie minuut

Risk can be measured and managed, but when a situation is unique, and the outcome of events is unpredictable, it causes uncertainty. Policy uncertainty is when there is uncertainty about government policy or of its consequences. Research shows that this causes investment to be delayed and it dampens economic growth. Unfortunately, there are weekly examples of policy uncertainty in South Africa, but luckily there is also an index that measures this.

Die week se ekonomiese aanwysers vir Desember en die vierde kwartaal van 2021 is produksie in die vervaardigingsektor en ook voertuigverkope. Dit skets ongelukkig ‘n prentjie van gedempte groei.

This week's economic indicators for December and the fourth quarter of 2021 are manufacturing production and also vehicle sales. It unfortunately paints a picture of subdued growth.

Baie mense voel dat die brand by die Parlement net nog ʼn voorbeeld is van die onbeholpenheid van die regering en dat dit vertroue in hulle planne verder ondermyn. Maar ek dink dit moet eerder binne die grotere fiskale konteks gesien word.

Many people feel that the fire at Parliament is just another example of the government's ineptitude and that it further undermines confidence in their plans. I think it should rather be seen within the larger fiscal context.

Een vraag wat die Ekonomie Minuut probeer antwoord is, hoe gaan dit met die ekonomie. Daar is vooruitskattings, soos wat moontlik kan gebeur as Amerikaanse rentekoerse styg en daar is die amptelike Statistieke Suid-Afrika data, maar baie keer praat ek oor die hoë frekwensie aanwysers. So is daar nou aanwysers vir die afgelope Desember en vir die vierde kwartaal van 2021 beskikbaar.

One question that the Economics Minute is always trying to answer is, how is the economy doing? There are forecasts, for example, as to what will happen if US interest rates increase, and there are the official Statistics South Africa data, but often I talk about the high-frequency indicators. So there are now indicators available for this past December and for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Ekonome is dit eens dat die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie hierdie jaar sterk beïnvloed gaan word deur internasionale gebeure, veral groei in Sjina en inflasie en rentekoerse in die VSA. Daarom is dit belangrik om die Amerikaanse arbeidsmark dop te hou.

Economists agree that the South African economy will be affected by international events this year, especially growth in China and inflation and interest rates in the US. That's why it's important to keep an eye on the US job market.

Na Woensdag se episode met voospellings vir 2022 het ʼn paar mense my gevra hoe sulke voorspellings werk. Daar is ʼn paar maniere om dit te doen en soms gebruik ons die wysheid van die skare.