Die ekonomie minuut

2021 was a year that Economics profs will be talking about for some time to come. The economy started to grow again after a 6.4% contraction due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Mining and agriculture carried the South African economy and saved the budget. But the growth did not have a broad base, unemployment continued to increase and business confidence remained low. Internationally, inflation has started to rise and interest rates are following.

Commentators often say that the economy is at a crossroads, but this time it may be more like a T-junction. There is no way we can muddle through. Important and difficult choices have to be made.

Hierdie week se BBP syfers het aangedui dat die ekonomie in die derde kwartaal met 1,5% gekrimp het, maar as jy gister RSG Monitor geluister het sou jy gehoor het dat die ekonoom Roelof Botha verskil. Hy voer aan dat die inkrimping veel kleiner is en dat ons moet kyk hoe sterk die ekonomie gegroei het vanaf die derde kwartaal van verlede jaar tot nou toe. Is dit goeie nuus, of is hy verkeerd?

(Luister na Monitor se potgooi hier, die BBP insetsel begin op 9min en 10 sekondes)

This week's GDP figures showed that the economy shrank by 1.5% in the third quarter, but if you had listened to RSG Monitor yesterday you would have heard that the economist Roelof Botha disagrees. He argues that the contraction is much smaller and that we need to look at how strongly the economy has grown from the third quarter of last year to now. Is this good news, or is he wrong?

As mens oor gister se BBP syfers wil praat is die beste plek om te begin om almal te herinner dat die Covid-19-pandemie en inperking in 2020 die ekonomie met 6,4% laat krimp het. Namate die golwe van infeksie en inperking verlig het, en ons almal weer begin werk, reis en inkopies doen, het ekonomiese groei herstel. In die derde kwartaal van 2021 het hierdie herstel 'n terugslag beleef. Almal het verwag dat dit 'n tol van die ekonomie sou eis en gister het ons geleer hoe groot dit is.

To talk about yesterday’s GDP numbers, the best place to start is to remind everyone that in 2020 the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown caused the economy to shrink by 6.4%. As the waves of infection and lockdowns eased, and we all started working, travelling, and shopping again, economic growth recovered. In the third quarter of 2021 this recovery experienced setbacks that everyone expected to take a toll on the economy and yesterday we learned just how big.

Later vandag word die derde kwartaal se BBP syfers bekend gemaak. Dit is Statistieke Suid-Afrika se maatstaf van die totale waarde van al die finale goedere en dienste wat in Suid-Afrika vervaardig is in Julie, Augustus en September. Ekonome praat gereeld oor die impak van gebeure op die ekonomie, maar dit is moeiliker om te voorspel as wat ons dit laat klink, en die amptelike data is gewoonlik maande later eers beskikbaar. Die impak van die corona-virus en inperkings, en spesifiek die onlangse Omnicron variant, is so uitdaging.

Later today, the third quarter's GDP figures will be announced. It is Statistics South Africa's measure of the total value of all the final goods and services produced in South Africa in July, August and September. Economists often talk about the impact of events on the economy, but it's harder to predict than we make it sound, and the official data is usually only available months later. The impact of the coronavirus and lockdowns, and specifically the recent Omnicron variant, is such a challenge.

Hier week word data vrygestel wat wys hoe dit met die ekonomie gaan. Dinsdag is dit Oktobermaand se kleinhandelverkope en Donderdag is dit vervaardiging- en mynbouproduksie data. Die derde kwartaal se bruto binnelandse produk word ook Dinsdag bekend gemaak.

This week, data are being released that show how the economy is doing. October's retail sales will be published on Tuesday and on Thursday it is manufacturing and mining production data. The third quarter's gross domestic product will also be announced on Tuesday.

Vandag se Minuut sluit die week af met ʼn kort oorsig oor die ander ekonomiese aanwysers. Die bradstofprysverhoging het die nuus gehaal, ABSA se aankopebestuurdersindeks vir November-maand is bekend gemaak en ook die Buro vir Ekonomiese ondersoek se kleinhandel vertrouensindeks.