Die ekonomie minuut

Yesterday the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank announced that the repo rate will be increased by 25 basis points, to 3.75%. The prime rate, therefore, rises to 7.25%. The explanation for this did not satisfy everyone.

(should they just have said that they are now defending the mid-point of the target range?)

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Oktobermaand se verbruikersprysindeks en inflasiesyfer bekend gemaak. Maand-tot-maand het inflasie met 0,2% toegeneem, maar die jaarlikse koers was soos in Septembermaand 5%. Dit klink nie na nuus nie, maar daar is ʼn paar interessante aspekte om uit te lig.

Statistics South Africa yesterday announced October's consumer price index and inflation figures. Month-on-month, inflation increased by 0.2%, but the annualized rate was unchanged at 5%. It does not sound like news, but there are some interesting aspects to highlight.

In gister se episode het ek geargumenteer dat die binnelandse faktore wat druk plaas op inflasie nog nie so sterk is dat dit ʼn styging in die repokoers noodsaak nie. Ekonome verwag dat Oktobermaand se inflasie syfer, wat later vandag bekend gemaak word, ʼn klein maand-tot-maand styging van 0.2% gaan hê en dat die jaarliksekoers onveranderd gaan bly op 5%. Dus moet ons praat oor die buitelandse faktore wat ʼn rol kan speel in die moontlike verhoging van die repokoers.

In yesterday's episode, I argued that the domestic factors that put pressure on inflation are not yet so strong that they necessitate a rise in the repo rate. Economists expect that October's inflation figure, which will be announced later today, will show a small month-on-month increase of 0.2% and that the annualized rate will remain unchanged at 5%. So, we need to talk about the foreign factors that may play a role in the possible increase in the repo rate.

Die Reserwebank se Monetêre beleidskomittee hou Donderdag hulle laaste vergadering van die jaar en ekonome wag om te sien of dit die begin gaan wees van ʼn reeks verhogings van die repokoers. Hulle moet besluit of ons ʼn volgehoue styging in die algemene prysvlak beleef wat inflasie moontlik bo die teikenband van 3-6% kan laat styg.

Hierdie episode gaan oor die binnelandse faktore wat 'n rol speel in die besluit.

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will hold its last meeting of the year on Thursday and economists are waiting to see if this will be the start of a series of repo rate hikes. They need to decide whether we are experiencing a sustained increase in the general price level that could potentially cause inflation to rise above the target band of 3-6%.

This episode covers the domestic considerations influencing the repo rate decision.

Na al verlede week se episodes oor die mini-begroting en fiskale beleid skuif die fokus hierdie week na inflasie en die Monetêre beleidskomittee se repokoersbesluit. Oktobermaand se verbruikersprysinflasiesyfer word Woensdag bekend gemaak en die repokoersbesluit is Donderdagmiddag. Ek wil met bietjie agtergrond begin.

After last week's episodes on the mini-budget and fiscal policy, the focus this week shifts to inflation and the Monetary Policy Committee's repo rate decision. October's consumer price inflation figure will be announced on Wednesday and the repo rate decision is on Thursday afternoon. I want to start with some background.

Kommentators en markte het van die mini-begroting gehou, maar verteenwoordig dit dalk net een kant in 'n voortslepende stryd van idees binne die regering?