Die ekonomie minuut

Commentators and markets liked the mini-budget, but does it only present one side in a war of ideas?

Die Minister van Finansies het vanmiddag vas gestaan in sy eerste mini-begroting. Vooraf was daar baie spekulasie dat hy dalk sal skietgee met die program van fiskale konsolidasie en van sy ekstra belasting inkomste sal gebruik vir toelae, of ʼn ekonomiese stimulusprogram. Sy begroting sal dalk Suid-Afrika se sosialiste ontstel, maar hy het al die regte dinge gesê.

The Minister of Finance held the line in his first mini-budget this afternoon. Beforehand, there was a lot of speculation that he might ease the fiscal consolidation program and use some of his windfall tax revenue for grants, or an economic stimulus program. His budget may upset South Africa's socialists, but he said all the right things.

Die paar dae voor die MTBR het almal iets te sê. Daar was al sprake dat alle toelae met ʼn familie toelaag vervang gaan word, vakbonde vra vir ʼn R1 miljoen miljoen stimulusprogram om die ekonomie aan die gang te kry, en so tussen die beurtkrag deur wonder mense of daar ʼn oplossing vir Eskom se probleme in die begroting gaan wees.

The few days before the MTBPS everyone has something to say. There have been rumours that all grants will be replaced with a family grant, unions are asking for an R1 million million stimulus program to get the economy going, and so in between rounds of load shedding, people are wondering if there is a solution to Eskom's problems in the budget.

Wanneer die Minister van Finansies die mini-begroting lewer, speel ekonomiese vooruitsigte ʼn belangrike rol. As die ekonomie groei kry hy meer belastinginkomste en al die belangrike verhoudings, soos die begrotingtekort tot BBP en skuld tot BBP, lyk beter. Hierdie jaar is Minister Godongwana in ʼn gunstige posisie want ekonome verwag dat die ekonomie met 5% gaan groei in 2020. Dit is die groeivooruitsigte waaroor ons bekommerd moet wees.

When the Minister of Finance delivers the mini-budget, economic scenarios play an important role. If the economy grows, he gets more tax revenue and all the important ratios, such as the budget deficit to GDP and debt to GDP, look better. This year, Minister Godongwana is in a favourable position because economists expect the economy to grow by 5% by 2020. We should be concerned about future growth prospects.

Hierdie week gaan die ekonomiese nuus gaan oor die medium-termyn begrotingsbeleidsraamwerk. Ek het verlede week al gesels oor hoe belangrik dit is dat die Minister van Finansies voortgaan met die fiskale konsolidasie wat nodig is om die staatskuld te verminder. Maar kom ons gee ʼn tree terug en verduidelik wat is die MTBR.

This week, the economic news is going to be about the medium-term budget policy statement. Last week I talked about how important it is for the Minister of Finance to continue with the fiscal consolidation needed to reduce government debt. But let's take a step back and explain what the MTBPS is.

As jy een van die gereelde luisters van hierdie podcast is sal jy weet dat inflasie in die VSA ʼn groot onderwerp is. As inflasie daar styg gaan die Federale Reserwebank hulle uitbreidende monetêre beleid beeindig. Dit kan ʼn skok wees vir aandelebeurse en ontluikende markte se geldeenhede. Of Amerikaanse inflasie volgehoud, of van ʼn verbygaande aard is, is baie belangrik vir ons in Suid-Afrika.