Die ekonomie minuut

If you're one of the regular listeners of this podcast, you know that inflation in the US is a big topic. If inflation rises there, the Federal Reserve will end its expansionary monetary policy. This can be a shock to stock markets and emerging market currencies. Whether US inflation is sustained, or transitory, is of significance for us in South Africa.

Ek het gister gesels oor volgende week se mini-begroting en of die Minister van Finansies sy belasting meervaller kan gebruik om sosiale toelae uit te brei. Om die Covid-toelaag vir werklose volwassenes permanent te maak, of om ʼn basiese inkomstetoelaag in te stel gaan meer geld vra as wat ʼn een-jaar opleweling in kommoditeitspryse kan oplewer. ʼn Beter plan is om minder te leen, want Suid-Afrika het ʼn skuldprobleem.

Yesterday I talked about next week's mini-budget and whether the Minister of Finance can use his tax windfall to expand social grants. Making the Covid allowance for unemployed adults permanent, or introducing a basic income grant, will require more money than a one-year surge in commodity prices can yield. A better plan is to borrow less, because South Africa has a debt problem.

Met die brandstofprys op rekord hoogte en beurtkrag wat weer terug is, is jou volgende bekommernis dalk volgende week se mini-begroting, maar baie ekonome dink dat dit nie hoef te wees nie. Dit gaan alles oor hoe die minister sy belastingmeevaller bestee.

With fuel prices rising and load shedding back, your next concern may be next week's mini-budget, but many economists think it doesn't have to be. It is all about how the minister will spend his tax windfall.

Terwyl ons wag vir die uitlae van die plaaslike verkiesings is daar darem ekonomiese nuus om dop te hou: ABSA se aankopebestuurdersindeks, Naamsa se data oor voertuigverkope, en die brandstofprys.

While we are waiting for the results of the local elections, there is some economic news to keep an eye on: ABSA's PMI, Naamsa vehicle sales, and the petrol price.

Ekonome het nie veel te sê gehad oor vandag se plaaslike verkiesings nie. Seker omdat dit nie direk ʼn invloed het op fiskale beleid, of die land se kredietgradering, of op inflasie nie. Die laaste week was ons meer bekommerd oor beurtkrag as oor die verkiesing. Maar hoewel ekonomiese beleid nie op plaaslike vlak gemaak word nie, is dit tog waar groot dele daarvan uitspeel. Die beskikbaarheid van elektrisiteit en water het baie te doen met jou plaaslike owerheid.

Economists did not said much about today's local elections. Probably because it is not directly related to fiscal policy, or the country's credit rating, or inflation. Last week we were more worried about load shedding than about the election. But although economic policy is not made at the local level, it is where large parts of it play out. The availability of electricity and water has a lot to do with your local government.

Met die plaaslike verkiesing om die draai en beurtkrag aan die orde van die dag het hierdie week se ekonomiese data het nie werklik die nuus gehaal nie. Bly ingeskakel vir meer oor die PPI en die SARB se sakesiklusaanwysers.