Die ekonomie minuut

This week's economic indicators give an indication of the impact of July's riots and level 4 lockdown on the economy, and of the recovery thereafter.

Ek het in episode 113 gepraat oor die sogenaamde suikerbelasting, maar dit is hierdie week weer in die nuus nadat ʼn groep academici ʼn beroep op die regering gedoen het om die heffing te verdubbel van 10 tot 20%.

In episode 113 I talked about the so-called sugar tax, but it's in the news again this week after a group of academics called on the government to double the levy from 10 to 20%.

Hierdie episode van die Ekonomie Minuut is in Suid-Afrika geskryf, maar my selfoon, mikrofoon en die platvorm word in wêreldwye voorsieningskettings gemaak en dit is nou onder druk. Bloomberg berig dat vervaardigers sukkel om grondstowwe en kompenente in die hande te kry en vervoerkoste skiet op, wat weer koste verhoog.

This episode of The Economics Minute was written in South Africa, but my cellphone, microphone and the hosting platform are the products of global supply chains and these are now under pressure. Bloomberg reports that manufacturers are struggling to get hold of raw materials and components. Transportation costs are skyrocketing, which in turn increases the cost of products.

Vrydag se episode het die hersiening van Suid-Afrika se BBP syfers kortliks verduidelik. Die ekonomie is toe 11% groter. Ons uitset per capita is dus meer, en ons skuld tot BBP vlakke is dus laer. Die skrikwekkende nuus is dat bruto vaste investering as ʼn persentasie van BBP is nog laer as wat ons gedink het. Die vlakke van privaatsektor vaste investering bepaal die spoed waarteen die ekonomie in die toekoms kan groei. Met investering op 14% van BBP kan ons nie vinnige groei verwag nie.

Friday's episode briefly explained last week's review of GDP figures. The economy ended up 11% larger. Our per capita output is, therefore, higher, and our debt to GDP level is therefore lower. The scary news is that gross fixed investment as a percentage of GDP is even lower than we thought. The levels of private sector fixed investment determine the speed at which the economy can grow in the future. With investment at 14% of GDP, we cannot expect rapid economic growth.

ʼn Risiko kan gemeet en bestuur word, maar wanneer ʼn situasie uniek is, en die uitkoms van gebeure is onvoorspelbaar, veroorsaak dit onsekerheid. Beleidsonsekerheid is wanneer ekonomiese besluitnemers onseker is oor die gevolge van regeringsbeleid. Navorsing wys dat dit veroorsaak dat investering uitgestel word en dit demp ekonomiese groei. Ongelukkig is daar weekliks voorbeelde van beleidsonsekerheid in Suid-Afrika.

Risk can be measured and managed, but when a situation is unique, and the outcome of events is unpredictable, it causes uncertainty. Policy uncertainty is when economic decision-makers are uncertain about the consequences of government policy. Research shows that it causes investment to be delayed and dampens economic growth. Unfortunately, there are weekly examples of policy uncertainty in South Africa.

Die Bruto Binnelandse Produk is die een aanwyser waaroor ekonome die meeste praat. Dit is die maatstaf van ekonomiese groei en die basis vir al daardie belangrike verhoudinge, soos staatskuld tot BBP. Een keer elke vyf jaar word die BBP hersien en dit is groot nuus.