Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Let’s face it, the oft quoted Australian Property Prices only go up was always a lie, but the religious belief that prices double every seven to ten years is now in pieces, as more data shows momentum building towards a significant correction. The latest from Cotality’s dwelling values index shows we are building towards a … Continue reading "Now Home Prices Are Sliding, Who Takes The Fall?"

Markets tend to be myopic, focussing on the latest shiny thing, like a magpie, and recently the latest US earnings season was in focus, with more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, overall first-quarter earnings jumped 29% from a year earlier; but now that is in the rear view mirror, investors are … Continue reading "Bond Macro Warns As Markets Feed On Strong Earnings, For Now…"

We recently got the April 2026 data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, which tells the continued story of weakness across the country, but not uniformly so. For context, note that their House Price Index is now 15.9% down from peak on average across the country, or excluding Auckland, down 10.9%. Despite this, … Continue reading "New Zealand Property Remains In The Doldrums With More Questions Ahead."

The latest data from the ABS showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5 per cent in April, as the number of employed people fell by 19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by 33,000. Actually, the total number of people employed fell for the first time this year, driven … Continue reading "Australian Unemployment Climbs, As Expected… But…"

The outlook for inflation ahead is getting more concerning, as the lasting impacts of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, plus the recent budget announcements, and the already higher for longer bond rates merge with the existing pattern of inflation lodged about the RBA’s target range, before this all comes home to roost. Meantime, … Continue reading "The Inflation Picture Darkens, As The Property Market Stalls…"

In this edit of our live show in which we examined the impact of the budget and other economic factors, like the ongoing closure of the Straits of Hormuz, on the Australian Property Market, and the broader economy. Will prices fall? Will the proposed changes drive rents up? To decode the implications I was joined … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Is The Australian 30-year Property Super-cycle Over? With Leith van Onselen"

In our post-budget conversation we look at the potential impacts on the property market, and what may lay ahead. Edwin brings us another insight into how to approach things at the moment, as we delve into the policy changes and join the dots. This is not a budget which will make more property available, despite … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Richard Wiles from Morgan Stanley after the budget on Tuesday suggested that the Australian 30-year property super-cycle is likely over, with significant impact on Bank valuations because of weakening credit demand. Years ago, Richard and I use to work on the JP Morgan Property reports, which for years were jointly published with DFA, so I … Continue reading "Is The Australian 30-year Property Super-cycle Over?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. While last week AI drove most markets higher, concerns about accelerating inflation surged this week, triggering a spike in global bond yields amid the likelihood of higher-for-longer … Continue reading "Market Roller-coaster Drops On Higher Interest Rate Fears, As AI Bets Fade"

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I catch up for another end of week chat, and dive into the budget, the RBA rate hike, the fallout from recent polls, and the broadening impact of the blockage in the Straits of Hormuz. Tarric brought along his latest charts, you can follow along here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2055170656778813537 Across the board it … Continue reading "Yet Another Brick In The Wall… With Tarric Brooker"