The Bullvine

E160 USMCA Termination Countdown: Will Your Farm Survive The North American Trade War?


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In this hard-hitting episode of The Bullvine Podcast, host Bella and dairy expert Douglas dive deep into the looming crisis facing North American dairy farms as the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) approaches its review date in 2026.

Key Points Discussed:

1. The Impending Crisis:

- July 1, 2026: Potential "D-Day" for dairy industry

- $1.2 billion in trade at risk

- 25% tariffs threatening profits and farm survival

2. The Butter Bloodbath:

- U.S. dairy exports to Canada (2023): $1.09 billion

- Butter exports: $118.9 million

- Regional impacts: Wisconsin, Quebec, California

3. Mexico's Role:

- Rerouting 17% of cheese imports to EU

- Implications for North American dairy trade

4. Supply Management vs. Corporate Greed:

- Canada's quota system

- Corporate consolidation in U.S. dairy industry

- Impact on small and medium-sized farms

5. Technological Adaptation and Survival Strategies:

- Robotic milking systems

- AI-driven production planning

- Feed efficiency as a competitive edge

6. The Labor Issue:

- Immigrant workforce in U.S. dairy industry

- Potential labor audits and their implications

- Economic impact of labor shortages

7. 2026 Scenarios:

- Renegotiation Theater

- Termination Trauma

- Tariff Armageddon

8. Call to Action:

- Advice for U.S. and Canadian farmers

- Market diversification strategies

- Importance of lobbying and political engagement

This episode serves as a wake-up call for the North American dairy industry, emphasizing the need for adaptation, innovation, and proactive measures to survive the upcoming challenges posed by the USMCA review.

https://www.thebullvine.com/politics/usmca-termination-countdown-will-your-farm-survive-the-north-american-trade-war/

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