EconoFact Chats

Presidential candidates promise economic prosperity. Yet views on how to achieve economic prosperity can diverge significantly -- as they do between President Biden and Former President Trump. How likely is it that their proposed policies on taxes, immigration, tariffs, and subsidies will foster economic growth, low inflation, a vibrant labor market, and a healthy macroeconomy? Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the macroeconomics of Biden vs. Trump based on a new analysis co-authored with Brendan La Cerda and Justin Begley.

Note: This podcast was recorded on 19th July, 2024.

Many view the greater integration of the world economy as a relatively modern phenomenon. Christopher Meissner puts the current level of international trade, the depth of global capital markets, and immigration in historical context, drawing on his new book One From the Many: The Global Economy Since 1850. Christopher explains how both technological and political changes since the mid-19th century have affected the integration of the world economy. He also discusses how trade, capital flows, and migration have created benefits that made many people better off, but this has been uneven and some people have been left behind.

Christopher is a Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of California, Davis, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The official poverty rate in the U.S. stood at about 11.5% in 2022. But as Jeff Fuhrer highlights, this is almost certainly a vast undercounting. He estimates that about 40% of people struggle to afford basic necessities like food, housing, and transportation. He joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why official poverty measures underestimate poverty, what this means for a nation that prides itself on meritocracy, and how policies to alleviate poverty offer a win-win opportunity.

Jeff served for nearly four decades in the Federal Reserve System, first at the Board of Governors in Washington, DC, followed by more than 25 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Currently, he is a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a Foundation Fellow at the Eastern Bank Foundation. He is the author of the award-winning 2023 book 'The Myth that Made Us: How False Beliefs about Racism and Meritocracy Broke Our Economy (and How to Fix It).'

The 2022 CHIPS Act allocated over $50 billion in incentives to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research and development. Two years on, how successful has the Act been in bringing semiconductor fabrication to the United States? More broadly, what was the rationale behind offering sizeable incentives to onshore chip production? And as other countries offer subsidies of their own, what effects are we likely to see in the manufacturing dynamics of both foundational and more advanced semi-conductors? Chris Miller joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these and other questions.

Chris is an Associate Professor of International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. He is also the author of the bestselling book 'Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology.'

China's share of manufacturing exports rose from just over 1% of the world's total in 1990, to almost one-fifth today. Research by Gordon Hanson and his co-authors documented how the 'China Shock' led to factory closures and job losses in places that had been producing apparel, shoes, furniture, simple electronics, and other goods that China now exported. Tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018 and 2019 did not reverse these effects and lead to job recovery. But, despite this, Hanson shows there was a political benefit to these trade restrictions.

Gordon is the Peter Wertheim Professor of Urban Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he co-directs the Reimagining the Economy Project.

Electric vehicles are thought to represent a partial, but important solution to realizing net-zero emissions goals. Toward this end, the European Union, China, Japan, South Korea, and several U.S. states have declared their intention to ban gasoline and diesel cars. But how realistic is it to move to a fully electric vehicle fleet? And how desirable is this goal? David Rapson joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.

David is a Chancellor’s Leadership Professor in the Economics Department at the University of California, Davis. He also serves as an economic policy advisor to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Discussions about the circular economy, which emphasizes sharing, reusing, repairing, and recycling existing materials -- has traditionally been the remit of engineers, architects, and sociologists. Is there a role for economists in furthering our understanding of, and in fostering an economy where little is wasted? Don Fullerton of the University of Illinois joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these and other issues.

Don has served as lead author for an assessment report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and as director of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Environmental Program.

The use of economic sanctions has surged in recent decades. But what does the evidence say about their effectiveness in influencing the actions of other countries? And under what conditions are sanctions more likely to achieve their goals? Daniel Drezner joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.

Dan is a Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, and a non-resident senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He is also a regular contributor to Foreign Policy, and the Washington Post.

U.S. unemployment remains low, while inflation has fallen, even though it remains above its 2 percent target. But there remain public concerns about the economy. Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post join EconoFact Chats to discuss some of the sources of current economic discontentment among voters, as well as issues related to the longer-run performance of the economy, such as inequality, housing, and manufacturing competitiveness.

“Grexit,” Greece dropping out of the Eurozone, seemed the most likely outcome of that country’s debt crisis in the early 2010s. There were fears that Grexit would be followed by a more widespread splintering of the Eurozone. But Greece and its creditors came to an agreement that enabled the country to service its debt and contributed to its subsequent recovery (and the preservation of the Eurozone). In a striking turnaround, Greece was named the 2023 “Country of the Year” by The Economist magazine. Charles Dallara (Partners Group) recounts the resolution of this crisis, the Greek recovery, and his role in getting Greece and its creditors to come to agreement, in his new book 'Euroshock: How the Largest Debt Restructuring in History Helped Save Greece and Preserve the Eurozone,' which he discusses in this EconoFact Chats episode, along with the lessons of this experience for the current high-debt conditions today.

Charles is Chairman and Advisory Partner at Partners Group. At the time of the Greek crisis he was the Managing Partner of the Institute for International Finance. Before that he spent nearly four decades working on international economic policy issues, including at the United States Treasury.