EconoFact Chats

Both presidential candidates have supported tariffs, albeit at very different levels. Can tariffs bring back manufacturing jobs, reduce the trade deficit, and provide substantial revenues? Responding to a recent article in The Atlantic, Maurice Obstfeld and Kim Clausing highlight that steep, across the board tariffs, like those candidate Trump proposes, will prove costly to US consumers and producers, are unlikely to revive manufacturing, will have little effect on the trade deficit, will generate minimal revenues, will raise the prices, and will invite retaliation. Maury joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these points, as well as to suggest other policies to achieve the goals that populists argue tariffs would realize.

Maury is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and an Emeritus Professor of Economics at UC Berkeley. He served as a member of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, and as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund.

Note: This podcast was first posted on 13th October 2024.

A center-right economic policy agenda has traditionally meant a focus on lower marginal tax rates, fiscal prudence, an openness to immigration, free trade and globalization. In recent years however, there has been significant change in the Republican Party's stance on some of these issues -- especially trade and immigration. Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) joins EconoFact Chats to highlight some of the factors driving these changes, and to discuss whether current Republican views on trade and immigration are likely to stay over coming election cycles

Michael is the Director of Economic Policy Studies, and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at AEI. He also serves on EconoFact's Board of Advisors.

Note: This podcast was first posted on 24th March 2024.

President-elect Trump's campaign promises included imposing broad tariffs to bolster U.S. manufacturing jobs, pursuing mass deportations to free jobs for U.S. citizens and ease the housing crunch, and assuming a greater role in setting monetary policy. How likely is it that these policies will be enacted and, if so, what would be their possible consequences? Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post join EconoFact Chats to discuss the feasibility and probable outcomes of the President-elect’s stated economic plans.

Home insurance has traditionally protected people from catastrophic losses of what is, for many, their most valuable asset. But climate change has contributed to the increasing frequency and severity of destructive weather events and wildfires. Widespread losses stress the solvency of insurance markets while higher premiums contribute to lower rates of coverage. The challenges facing home insurance markets has adverse implications for real estate markets, mortgage providers, people hoping to afford a house, and government programs that provide insurance. David Marlett discusses the sources and consequences of these challenges and strategies for better risk management.

David is a Professor of Risk Management at Appalachian State University.

The share of Americans working a full day from home rose from 7% in 2019 to 60% in the immediate wake of COVID in 2020. This share has now fallen to 25%, still well above its pre-COVID rate. What have the last four years revealed about the effects of working from home on productivity? Are employers right in worrying about shirking? What do employees like, and dislike, about remote work? Do they now prefer working from home, returning to their offices, or some hybrid combination of the two? Nick Bloom answers these questions and discusses how a new configuration of work location choice could best serve the interests of companies and their employees in this EconoFact Chats episode.

A co-founder at the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, Nick is a Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Does the outcome of the 2024 election suggest a realignment of traditional voting patterns? Early data points to continuity along some dimensions, such as an expected anti-incumbency vote against Democrats. But there were also notable shifts among certain groups. For example, young people, who had largely tilted towards Democrats in recent election cycles, swung by more than 20 points towards Republicans. This shift was even more pronounced among young men of color with lower levels of education. David Lazer joins EconoFact Chats to discuss this, and other notable shifts in voting patterns in the 2024 election, and the likelihood that these changes will persist.

David is a University Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Computer Sciences at Northeastern University. He is the director of Northeastern's Internet and Democracy Initiative, co-directs the Civic Healthy Institutions Project.

Japan's economy was seen as something of a juggernaut in the post World War II era, with growth averaging about 10% during the 1950s and 60s. Yet, in subsequent decades, with a stock market crash, and the bursting of a real estate bubble, Japan entered a period of stagnation and deflation, from which it is only now emerging. What drove Japan's rapid post-war growth? Why did growth stall, and reverse? And are there lessons from the Japanese experience relevant to the U.S. economy today? Paul Sheard joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.

Paul has been a Professor at Osaka University and a visiting scholar at the Bank of Japan, and at Stanford University. He was also Japan's strategist for Baring Asset Management, and has held chief economist positions at Lehman Brothers, Nomura Securities, and Standard & Poor's.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, points out that the American economy is currently the envy of the world. The outcome of the Presidential election could change the course of the economy since the two candidates have put forward very different policies. One key difference is the size and scope of tariffs. High and broad-based tariffs would raise prices which would have knock-on effects on monetary policy, growth, and government deficits. Another difference is the promise of large-scale deportations. This would adversely affect the number of workers available for many industries – for example, a shortfall in construction workers would contribute to higher housing prices.

Overall, the candidates’ policies reflect very different orientations, and quite distinct views of the economy. Mark joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these differences, and their implications.

Immigration policy has been called “the third rail” of American politics, with intense feelings on both sides of the issue. In this charged environment, it is important to know the facts about immigration, especially as they relate to economic outcomes. The Analysis Group, Inc., an international economic consulting firm headquartered in Boston, published an extensive study of the economic impact of immigration in the United States in September 2024. Two of the co-authors of that report, Jee-Yeon K. Lehmann and Yao Lu, join EconoFact Chats to discuss their findings, highlighting the effects of immigration on wages, jobs, housing, innovation, and productivity.

Jee-Yeon is a Managing Principal, and Yao Lu is a Vice President at The Analysis Group.

Drug overdose deaths in the U.S. fell by 12.7% between May 2023 and 2024. As the Office of National Drug Control Policy notes, this marks the largest recorded reduction in overdose deaths. It also marks six consecutive months of reported decreases. What has driven the recent declines? Which policies and interventions have proven particularly effective? And what work still needs to be done where overdose death rates are still rising? Alicia Sasser Modestino joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.

Alicia is an Associate Professor of Public Policy and Urban Affairs, and Economics at Northeastern University, where she also serves as Research Director of the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy.