Dr. Nicholson details the high points of his presentation, including a milk price outlook, implications of changes to milk and milk component pricing that will take place in June, and changes in butterfat value over time. As a result of the pricing changes, milk component values are expected to decrease. (3:15)
Net impacts on milk prices for a dairy will depend mostly on where they’re located, but also a little bit on how their milk is currently priced. Dr. Nicholson expects a decrease of around $0.32/cwt for dairies in his area. The panel discusses how a dairy might shift management and feeding to try to increase milkfat to recoup that loss. Dr. Zimmerman asks if the pricing changes will affect fat and protein pricing equally or differently. Butter and other non-fat solids are all going to have the same impact every month. But protein is slightly different because the formulas for protein pricing use both the price of cheese and the price of butter, and those factors interact. Brian comments the impacts for a cheese and powder type of dairy stand to be quite different from a fluid milk dairy. Chuck talks about some of the background as to why dairy cooperatives and dairy producers voted in favor of the milk pricing changes. (8:16)
The panel discusses the impact of cheese demand on component pricing and production. Billions of dollars worth of cheese processing capacity are coming online in the next couple of years, so demand should remain strong. Tariffs are definitely bringing a lot of uncertainty to the market. Some of the new cheese plants have a lot of whey processing capacity on the back end to add value. Whey products are one of our major exports. (13:54)
Brian talks about the shift in what’s considered an acceptable butterfat percentage over the span of his career. The panel talks about the influence of genomics and feeding management on that trend. Dr. Lock talks about a recently completed study in his lab feeding fresh cows two different levels of metabolizable protein and supplementing 0%, 1% or 2% of a 60:30 palmitic-oleic fatty acid blend. Cows fed a higher level of metabolizable protein and a 2% fatty acid blend produced 9.5 kilograms more energy-corrected milk in the first three weeks of lactation. He mentions the protein had more of an impact on milk fat than he had anticipated, that protein and fat supplementation showed additive positive effects, and there was a carryover effect after supplementation ceased. (21:04)
Dr. Lock summarizes some recent work on feeding high oleic soybeans to lactating cows. The panel chats about roasting vs. not roasting soybeans, transportation costs and economics. Dr. Lock’s group is now looking at feeding the oil from high-oleic beans to see how the response differs, if at all, from feeding the beans. (25:42)
Dr. Nicholson predicts a pretty good margin year for 2025, forecasting about $3 above the average long-term margin, even with the upcoming milk pricing changes. The big wild card is exports and trade policy, which could have a significant impact on what margins look like going forward. (31:32)
Panelists share their take-home thoughts. (33:36)
Scott invites the audience to Bourbon and Brainiacs at ADSA in Louisville - a bourbon tasting with all your favorite professors! Sign up here: https://balchem.com/anh/bourbon/ (37:55)
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By Balchem Animal Nutrition & Health
5
6464 ratings
Dr. Nicholson details the high points of his presentation, including a milk price outlook, implications of changes to milk and milk component pricing that will take place in June, and changes in butterfat value over time. As a result of the pricing changes, milk component values are expected to decrease. (3:15)
Net impacts on milk prices for a dairy will depend mostly on where they’re located, but also a little bit on how their milk is currently priced. Dr. Nicholson expects a decrease of around $0.32/cwt for dairies in his area. The panel discusses how a dairy might shift management and feeding to try to increase milkfat to recoup that loss. Dr. Zimmerman asks if the pricing changes will affect fat and protein pricing equally or differently. Butter and other non-fat solids are all going to have the same impact every month. But protein is slightly different because the formulas for protein pricing use both the price of cheese and the price of butter, and those factors interact. Brian comments the impacts for a cheese and powder type of dairy stand to be quite different from a fluid milk dairy. Chuck talks about some of the background as to why dairy cooperatives and dairy producers voted in favor of the milk pricing changes. (8:16)
The panel discusses the impact of cheese demand on component pricing and production. Billions of dollars worth of cheese processing capacity are coming online in the next couple of years, so demand should remain strong. Tariffs are definitely bringing a lot of uncertainty to the market. Some of the new cheese plants have a lot of whey processing capacity on the back end to add value. Whey products are one of our major exports. (13:54)
Brian talks about the shift in what’s considered an acceptable butterfat percentage over the span of his career. The panel talks about the influence of genomics and feeding management on that trend. Dr. Lock talks about a recently completed study in his lab feeding fresh cows two different levels of metabolizable protein and supplementing 0%, 1% or 2% of a 60:30 palmitic-oleic fatty acid blend. Cows fed a higher level of metabolizable protein and a 2% fatty acid blend produced 9.5 kilograms more energy-corrected milk in the first three weeks of lactation. He mentions the protein had more of an impact on milk fat than he had anticipated, that protein and fat supplementation showed additive positive effects, and there was a carryover effect after supplementation ceased. (21:04)
Dr. Lock summarizes some recent work on feeding high oleic soybeans to lactating cows. The panel chats about roasting vs. not roasting soybeans, transportation costs and economics. Dr. Lock’s group is now looking at feeding the oil from high-oleic beans to see how the response differs, if at all, from feeding the beans. (25:42)
Dr. Nicholson predicts a pretty good margin year for 2025, forecasting about $3 above the average long-term margin, even with the upcoming milk pricing changes. The big wild card is exports and trade policy, which could have a significant impact on what margins look like going forward. (31:32)
Panelists share their take-home thoughts. (33:36)
Scott invites the audience to Bourbon and Brainiacs at ADSA in Louisville - a bourbon tasting with all your favorite professors! Sign up here: https://balchem.com/anh/bourbon/ (37:55)
Please subscribe and share with your industry friends to invite more people to join us at the Real Science Exchange virtual pub table.
If you want one of our Real Science Exchange t-shirts, screenshot your rating, review, or subscription, and email a picture to [email protected]. Include your size and mailing address, and we’ll mail you a shirt.
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