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Commercial property is being actively promoted as a compelling alternative to residential investment, particularly as higher interest rates reduce borrowing capacity and tighter tenancy laws make residential property less attractive. On the surface, the pitch is appealing: higher rental yields, tenants paying most outgoings, and the potential for capital growth. But in Stuart's assessment, current valuations make the risk hard to justify.

This episode examines commercial property through a valuation lens, explaining how cap rates work, why current pricing looks stretched relative to historical norms, and how the spread between commercial yields and the 10-year government bond rate has compressed to levels last seen before the GFC. At recent auction prices, some properties are selling on cap rates below the risk-free rate, meaning investors are accepting less income than a government bond while taking on substantially more risk.

The analysis models what happens to investor equity if cap rates revert toward their long-term average of 3.5% to 4.5% above the bond rate. The results are stark: at 70% leverage, a reversion to historical norms could wipe out most or all of an investor's equity.

Stuart also explores why cap rates have stayed compressed despite rising bond yields, and why the structural forces holding valuations up may not last. Commercial property can be an excellent investment, but only at the right price.

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IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.