EP251 - 2021 Annual Predictions

2020 Recap – Predictions made on episode 204

2020 Predictions Recap

Scot

1. Shopify wilts a bit – new competition comes out with different angles (marketcap stays static) – No
2. Fedex does something drastic – buy eBay? Merge with Alibaba? No (but shoprunner for 0.5)
3. The year of returns – “happy returns” – a startup raises $100M+ in space. No (but 0.5 for year of returns)
4. Mallageddon continues At least another 8k stores Yes 8721 stores +1
5. Google gets aggressive in ecommerce Yes +1 (Bill Ready, etc…)

Score 3/5

Jason

1. Walmart – growth slows due to completion of grocery build out. Marc Lore leaves Walmart. No on growth, yes on Marc Lore (0.5)
2. Amazon – Opens affordable grocery concept. Digital grocery wars heat up. Yes
3. Owned brands continue to grow. 5% of retail in 2019, could be 8-10% in 2020 (as measured by IRI, for CPG private label). Yes
4. Installment Payments heat up – At least one company is acquired (Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, QuadPay, Sizzle) Yes (IPO’s)
5. Digital in-store heats up, QR codes make a comeback Yes

Score 4.5/5

2021 Predictions

Jason:

1. Made to Order apparel business > 9 figures
2. Retailer offers viable health alt insurance option to consumers
3. Grocery E-Com > 10%  someone deploys(not pilots) MFC
4. Amazon Shopify Competitor (shipping solution)
5. Retail Media > $20B

Bonus – More store closures in 2021 than 2020.

Scot:

1. Amazon move to same day prime by opening a huge wave of neighborhood DCs (near DSPs)
2. Shipping (Shopify) – launch own DSP
3. Shopify marketplace 
4. ‘zero friction addiction’ sticks – I’ve seen 30-40% repeated a lot, I think it’s 60-80%. commerce penetration says at 16% or better in 2021.
5. spac/ipo? Dnvb wave

Bonus: post-covid anti-consumerism/materialism wave

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Episode 251 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 21st, 2021.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.