Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

Matt and Joe run a quick check on coal: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds help the setup.

Notes

• Thermal: Europe’s API2 off spring lows; Newcastle firmed (~$110s). In China, burns up, stockpiles down, prices rising toward ~$100/t with some production curtailments..

• Met: Recovered from ~$160/t with recent prints in the high-$180s to ~$197/t; could retest lows in Oct–Nov, but view is higher lows/highs into 2026-27 as quality supply tightens.

• Costs & floors: Inflation has lifted global cost curves; today’s “floors” look like yesterday’s peaks.

• U.S. power & gas: Data-center load + upcoming LNG capacity argue for firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.

• Equity color: Accumulate quality on weakness; favor buyback/clean-balance-sheet names; watch M&A overhangs for rerates.
  

Stocks mentioned (symbols): BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP

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