Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.

Thermal Coal

• Europe: API2 drifting in the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady near ~$100–110 during shoulder season.

• Asia: China/India imports firm; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal ~$40 → ~$43; China-destined 5,500 kcal ~$65 → ~$70.

Met Coal

• Pricing: Recovered off ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.

• Supply: BHP to close the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of additional Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.

Policy & Cost Curves

• New floors: Inflation + royalties push global cost curves up—levels that were prior peaks now look like today’s support.

U.S. Power & Gas

• Demand tailwinds: Data-center load and new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and improved coal dispatch versus recent summers.

Equities & Positioning

• Playbook: Watch M&A overhangs and prioritize buyback/clean-balance-sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.

Listener Q&A Highlights

• China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand toward India.
  

Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP

👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 

👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder

👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net 

Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.

Thermal Coal

• Europe: API2 drifting near the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady around the ~$100-110 range in shoulder season.
  

• Asia: China/India imports look strong; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal rose ~$40 → ~$43; CN-destined 5,500 kcal ~ ~$65 → ~$70.
  

Met Coal

• Pricing: Off the ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.
  

• Supply: BHP to shut the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of other Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.
  

Policy & Cost Curves

• Inflation + royalties have lifted global cost floors - what used to be peaks now looks like today’s support.
  

U.S. Power & Gas

• Data-center load + new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.
  

Equities & Positioning

• Watch for M&A overhangs and buyback/clean balance sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.
  

Listener Q&A Highlights

• Coronado (CRN.AX): U.S. assets solid, but Australia remains royalty/price sensitive; path forward hinges on cost work and price relief.
  

• China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand to India.
  

Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP

👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com

👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder

👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net 

Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

Matt and Joe run a quick check on coal: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds help the setup.

Notes

• Thermal: Europe’s API2 off spring lows; Newcastle firmed (~$110s). In China, burns up, stockpiles down, prices rising toward ~$100/t with some production curtailments..

• Met: Recovered from ~$160/t with recent prints in the high-$180s to ~$197/t; could retest lows in Oct–Nov, but view is higher lows/highs into 2026-27 as quality supply tightens.

• Costs & floors: Inflation has lifted global cost curves; today’s “floors” look like yesterday’s peaks.

• U.S. power & gas: Data-center load + upcoming LNG capacity argue for firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.

• Equity color: Accumulate quality on weakness; favor buyback/clean-balance-sheet names; watch M&A overhangs for rerates.
  

Stocks mentioned (symbols): BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP

Expect data-backed insights, real margin math, and honest takes on where the coal market stands - and where it’s heading.

Subscribe at ⁠TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at ⁠thecoaltrader.substack.com.

Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder  

For more commodity market commentary visit the Clear Commodity website at https://clearcommodity.net/ Disclaimer
For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network

Tickers Mentioned: $BTU, $ARLP, $AMR, $HCC, $METC, $GLEN.L

In this debut episode, Matt and Joe break down the fundamentals of the global coal market - starting with a deep dive into U.S. thermal coal basins and how they feed into domestic power demand and global exports.

We cover:

• Key differences between thermal and metallurgical coal and their market drivers

• U.S. coal basin economics: from Wyoming to Appalachia

• How coal prices translate to cash flow and margins for major U.S. producers

• Global price benchmarks: API2, Newcastle, Richards Bay

• What’s driving recent price trends in China, India, Europe, and U.S. utilities

• A primer on the steel cycle, metallurgical coal quality specs, and which companies stand to benefit

• Featured equities: Core Natural Resources, Peabody Energy, Alliance Resource Partners, Alpha Metallurgical, Warrior Met Coal, Ramaco, Glencore, and Whitehaven

Expect data-backed insights, real margin math, and honest takes on where the coal market stands - and where it’s heading.

Subscribe at ⁠TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at ⁠thecoaltrader.substack.com.

Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder 

For more commodity market commentary visit the Clear Commodity website at https://clearcommodity.net/