Coinbase Institutional Market Call

ETH ETF Momentum Builds, BTC Outflows; Ethereum's "Wartime" Shift, Corporate Stacking & Jobs Data Focus


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Description:
This week, we dissect a shifting market landscape: perp funding rates remain moderate, but Ethereum's basis is notably trading above Bitcoin's, fueled by recent momentum and significant ETH ETF inflows, which starkly contrast with current BTC ETF outflows.
Among the big movers, we're seeing gains in MKR, UNI, and CRO, while the COIN50 Index has dipped 4% over the past week. We also delve into the technical picture for major assets, commenting on key support and resistance levels. Encouragingly, corporate BTC flows remain strong.
On the macro and regulatory front in the US, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) has recently passed the House. We are also closely watching a significant week for jobs data; April's JOLTS report is in, and upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls and initial jobless claims will provide a comprehensive overview of the current labor market.
Industry news is headlined by the Ethereum Foundation's major overhaul of its R&D division. Now in "wartime mode," the focus is sharply on scaling L1s and L2s, alongside significant improvements to user and developer experience (UX/DX). Meanwhile, corporate crypto accumulation continues unabated.
Our onchain deep dive explores the progress of Ethereum's Pectra Upgrade, including developments around EIP-7251 consolidations and a noticeably growing staking queue. For Solana, Anza has announced the Alpenglow consensus protocol. In the DeFi space, we're seeing continued growth from Hyperliquid in the perpetuals market and a significant increase in Gearbox lending TVL. We'll also discuss Loudio's innovative "Initial Attention Offering" model, and note that Coinbase Wallet's Mini Apps are now available in limited beta.

Topics Covered:

  • Market Dynamics:
    • Perp funding rates & ETH/BTC basis.
    • ETH ETF inflows vs. BTC ETF outflows.
    • Big Movers (MKR, UNI, CRO) & COIN50 Index performance.
    • Commentary on Technicals (including key support/resistance).
    • Corporate BTC flows.
  • Macro & Regulatory:
    • "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) House passage.
    • Key Jobs Data: JOLTS, upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls & initial jobless claims.
  • Industry & Corporate News:
    • Ethereum Foundation's R&D "wartime mode" (L1/L2 scaling, UX/DX focus).
    • Ongoing corporate crypto accumulation.
  • Onchain Insights:
    • Ethereum: Pectra Upgrade progress (EIP-7251, staking queue).
    • Solana: Anza's Alpenglow consensus protocol announcement.
    • DeFi Trends: Hyperliquid perp market growth, Gearbox lending TVL increase.
    • New Models: Loudio's "Initial Attention Offering."

Coinbase News:

  • Wallet Tech: Coinbase Wallet Mini Apps in limited beta

Coinbase Research

Host:
Ben Floyd, Head of Execution Services

Speakers:
David Duong, Head of Institutional Research
Ben Rodriguez, Senior Protocol Specialist
Gregory Sutton, Senior CES Sales Trader

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