The US Federal Reserve’s sharp pivot toward easing amid substantial White House pressure has raised concerns about central bank independence, as have developments in other advanced and emerging market economies alike. How worried we should be about this threat—and its implications for policy, the economy, and markets—is Top of Mind. In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former central bankers Donald Kohn and Sir Paul Tucker who explain why central bank independence is critical to maintaining price and financial stability—even today when too little, rather than too much, inflation is the main problem. But while Kohn is concerned that Trump’s overt pressure could undermine Fed credibility, Tucker worries more that over-reliance on central banks since the GFC has left them vulnerable to politicization. Nathan also speaks with the firm’s chief economist Jan Hatzius who does not believe the Fed has responded directly to pressure from the White House, but does think that political pressure could already be influencing Fed policy through indirect channels such as bond market pricing. That said, Hatzius argues this in itself shouldn’t inflict too much harm on the economy unless inflationary pressures rise materially.

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The next 10 years of mobility will bring more change in the way that people and products move than any decade since the invention of the automobile, Goldman Sachs Research’s Heath Terry explains in this episode. Emerging technologies and business models like ride-hailing and sharing, autonomous driving and delivery, micro-mobility and even eVTOL (flying cars, finally) stand to disrupt profit pools that we estimate exceed $700 billion, and venture-backed startups and incumbents will attempt to address over $7 trillion in spending. Given the size of the opportunity, it should come as no surprise that access to capital has created a hyper-competitive environment marked by massive operating losses driven by marketing, subsidies, incentives, and capital investment. As this environment matures and rationalizes, Goldman Sachs Research expects consolidation that will lead to profitability, the establishment of category leaders, and significant opportunities for investors.

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With the US expansion now the longest on record and no shortage of risks on the horizon, growth uncertainty is Top of Mind. This uncertainty has been at the heart of the dovish pivot from central banks this year, which has generally helped push bond yields lower in anticipation of Fed rate cuts ahead, but equity prices higher. So just how concerned about growth should we really be? In this episode of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan asks Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and others to weigh in. Dalio argues that recent price action makes sense given the Fed’s easier stance, but worries we’re pushing the limits of monetary easing, which—among other political and geopolitical factors—will ultimately bring about a negative shift in growth and markets. But Jan Hatzius argues that markets are perhaps too concerned about growth and not concerned enough about the direction of Fed policy, as the costs of easing now potentially outweigh the benefits.

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In this episode, Jennifer Davis, head of retail investment banking for Goldman Sachs, explains how retailers are expanding their growth strategies against a backdrop of continued e-commerce growth and shifting demographics. While Davis acknowledges that growth strategies are “very specific to a retailer or brand,” she outlines three key areas of focus for her clients: customer demographic growth, channel growth (including the rise of digitally native brands), and geographic growth.  

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Although financial markets tend to be explained largely in quantitative terms, human behavior still plays a major role in driving price action, says Sheba Jafari, head of technical analysis for Goldman Sachs’ Securities Division. Jafari, who looks at historical patterns to predict movements in markets, explains: “In my opinion, the mere fact that we have the existence of [asset] bubbles indicates that markets are still run by emotions -- fear, greed and hope.” Also in the episode, Jafari discusses the impact of AI and machine learning on trading decisions and her own unlikely path from film studies to finance.

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The prospect of a larger and longer trade war has increased as US-China trade negotiations have taken a turn for the worse and President Trump has opened up trade battles on new fronts. Allison Nathan from Goldman Sachs Research speaks with experts about how we got here, where tensions may go from here, and potential implications for the global economy and beyond in this episode of Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs.

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Elections for the European Parliament taking place May 23-26 are setting up to be exceptionally important given the rise of populist and nationalist forces that threaten Europe’s long-standing centrist status quo. Some even see this election as a crucial moment in deciding the future of the European Union. Allison Nathan from Goldman Sachs Research talks to experts about the potential implications of this important election in this episode of Top of Mind. José Manuel Barroso, former President of the European Commission and Chairman of Goldman Sachs International, gives firsthand insight on the large and growing relevance of the European Parliament. Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, provides his view on how a possible realignment in power at both the European and national levels could disrupt everything from EU leadership appointments, to trade deals, to the EU’s budget— not to mention implications for fiscal policy in member countries, among other policy areas. 

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