US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 55 basis points, 75 basis points, and 113 basis points respectively. US headlines have focused on the frustrating December start for stocks, deeper yield curve inversion, bank CEO commentary about some slowing in consumer spending and 2023 recession expectations, and declining wholesale used-vehicle prices.

Despite a modest decrease, today marks the S&P’s fifth-straight decline

In terms of the Fed, while some believe the market overreacted to Powell, concerns remain that positive macro surprises could lead to a more aggressive Fed, which in turn could raising odds of a policy mistake/recession.

AAPL (Apple) supplier flagged expectations for decline in iPhone orders due to weaker demand. Bernstein also said it looks as if TSLA (Tesla) has a demand issue. 

China scrapped most of its Covid testing and quarantine rules in a move that has been widely reported. Within the U.S., Raphael Warnock defeated Hershel Walker in Georgia Senate runoff, giving Democrats 51-49 advantage.

US equities lower in Tuesday trading, finishing off worst levels with the S&P lower for the fourth-straight day, and already down over 3% for the week. It was quiet from a headline perspective, particularly with no notable US economic data out today. Near-term catalysts include November PPI and December Michigan inflation expectations on Friday. 

US equities were lower in Monday trading, though ended a bit off worst levels, as The S&P posted its worst day since 9-Nov and settled just below the 4000 level. Market conditions steadily worsened through the session despite no real fundamental change to broader market narrative. Meanwhile, ISM services surprised to the upside in November, with only a slight moderation in prices paid.  

US equities were higher this week, with the S&P 500 rising above the 200 DMA for the first time since April while the Dow exited a bear market after Wednesday's big rally. In a speech at Brookings, Fed Chair Powell signaled that the Fed would downshift the pace of rate hikes to 50 bp this month. Meanwhile, there was some focus this week on a growing case for a soft landing given inflation has started to come down while the labor market remains resilient.

US equities finished mostly lower with the Dow down about half of a percent, the S&P near flat, and the Nasdaq up +0.1%. Major economic sectors are broadly lower despite Wednesday’s post-Powell gains.

Lower rate increases in December remain the big story after Jerome Powell’s keynote with the Brookings Institute yesterday.

Overall, economic indicators play into the complications of bad and good news dynamics. While the market wants to see disinflation and slower growth, some resilience on the growth plays into soft-landing scenarios and cushions against an earnings risk theme.

China’s Covid shift continues to dominate the headlines. While recent protests have generated a lot of noise, Beijing continues to signal a relaxation of zero-COVID, supporting the expectation of reopening best displayed by the outsized rally in China stocks.

US equities were sharply higher in Wednesday trading, ending near their best levels following Powell comments, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 218 basis points, 309 basis points, and 441 basis points respectively. Nothing really incremental from Powell's prepared remarks at the Brookings Institution, but takeaways were still dovish. US economic data was mixed. China PMIs fell, and Japan, South Korea industrial production came in weaker.

US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, ending off worst levels with trading fairly uneventful through the afternoon. The market took a leg lower in the late morning after a report that AAPL will see 15-20M fewer iPhone Pro Q4 units shipments than expected. Meanwhile, November Consumer Confidence beat, though expectations index lowest since Jul-20.  

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending just off session lows. The selloff today comes after the S&P closed above the 4000 level last week for the first time since mid-September, with the index up more than 10% since hitting a YTD low on 13-Oct. Some pressure being ascribed to the widespread China Covid protests as well as some hawkish Fedspeak today, though there is little change in the higher-for-longer narrative.

US equities finished higher on Wednesday’s session with the major economic sectors broadly higher as stocks extend Tuesday’s rally. No real surprises in the November FOMC minutes as recent Fedspeak maintains a tight focus on reducing hikes and a higher-for-longer approach to tamp down inflation. Generally, earnings a mixed-to-worse bag with nothing particularly new from a thematic perspective, including the latest cost-cutting/restructuring headlines. China Covid trends remain negative but measures to support the property market are being implemented as the State Council meeting looks to aid growth with a possible cut in their reserve requirement ratio. Happy Thanksgiving