FDD Morning Brief

Ukraine’s effective cyber resilience – withstanding thousands of Russian attacks – is thanks in part to years-long cyber defense capacity building programs backed by both the U.S. government and industry. Washington’s robust efforts – if somewhat ad-hoc – help partners build cyber resilience, mature their law enforcement tools and techniques, improve information sharing, train cyber workforces, and deploy more secure and resilient information and communications technology networks. As attacks by criminal and state-backed hackers on America and its allies grow, is Washington organized and resourced to meet the needs of tomorrow? How can the U.S. government better organize to help partners improve their cyber resilience? Why is partner capacity building important for U.S. national security?

To answer these questions and discuss how to enhance partner capacity building, FDD hosts a conversation with the inaugural U.S. Ambassador at Large for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel C. Fick; RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, senior director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI); and Annie Fixler, director of CCTI and research fellow at FDD. The discussion is moderated by John Sakellariadis, cybersecurity reporter at Politico.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has spent the last four decades building a network of armed groups on Israel’s borders to create instability and foment terrorism. Thanks to funding, arms, training, and coordination from Tehran, a mosaic of at least nineteen terrorist organizations in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria continue to strike at Israel, blunting any hope for calm, let alone peace. What are the tactical and strategic trends exhibited by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah, and what might a future multi-front conflict entail? What challenges does the beleaguered Palestinian Authority and its security forces in the West Bank face, particularly as Iranian surrogates gain strength? What can Israel, Washington, and allied nations do to counter the Islamic Republic’s proxies and prevent a regional war?

To explore these questions, FDD will host a panel discussion with Lt. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Conricus, former international spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces and a member of the Israel Defense and Security Forum; Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at FDD and former terrorism finance analyst at the U.S. Department of the Treasury; and Joe Truzman, research analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal focused on Palestinian militant groups and Hezbollah. The conversation will be moderated by Enia Krivine, senior director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security Network.

The Republic of Palau, in the central pacific, is a core strategic partner of the United States. The deep and close relationship, born in the blood of World War II battles, is formalized in the Compact of Free Association (COFA). The agreement means Palauans can serve in the U.S. military and live and work in the United States. The COFA also grants the U.S. extensive and unique defense oversight in Palauan territory, including the right of strategic denial: access that is an imperative part of the U.S. defense architecture in the Pacific. Additionally, Palau recognizes Taiwan. All this combines to make Palau a major target of Beijing’s influence operations as they aim to force a derecognition of Taiwan and pressure them to move away from the United States. 

With the sensitive COFA renegotiation underway, Palauan President Surangel S. Whipps, Jr. is in Washington and has agreed to sit down with FDD Non-Resident Senior Fellow Cleo Paskal and FDD Senior Vice President Jonathan Schanzer to discuss the U.S.-Palau relationship and details on the great power battle taking place in the Pacific Islands. 

The People’s Republic of China is undertaking a massive military buildup and wielding its growing might more aggressively, including in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. At the same time, Beijing is deepening its security cooperation with Moscow and Tehran. To deter aggression in regions that are vital to American interests, Washington needs capable forward-positioned military forces. It also needs defense partners with cutting edge capabilities that can operate effectively alongside American forces and help carry the security burden. Thankfully, the United States already enjoys an impressive network of allies and partners — but growing threats require Washington to redouble efforts to build partner capacity and deepen their integration with U.S. forces. That’s easier said than done, requiring hard work on basing agreements, defense trade, contingency planning, and military exercises.

FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP) hosts a conversation with Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Jessica Lewis on the Biden administration’s ongoing security cooperation efforts in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Drawing on Assistant Secretary Lewis’s recent visit to the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the conversation – moderated by CMPP Senior Director Bradley Bowman – will discuss priorities, opportunities, and challenges going forward.

Emerging technology develops at a pace that is hard to master, much less legislate. The government should ensure that the opportunities technology provides maximize the potential for societal improvements while ensuring both economic and national security. Two of the most effective efforts to tackle the emerging technology challenges in the past half-decade were the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) and the Cyberspace Solarium Commission (CSC).

As the former chairs of these two congressionally mandated commissions, Rep. Mike Gallagher (CSC) and Dr. Eric Schmidt (NSCAI) discuss the roles of Congress, the Executive Branch, academia, and private sector leaders in shaping emerging technology policy, including how commissions can influence policies moving forward.

The panel is moderated by the former NSCAI Executive Director and current President and CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project Ylli Bajraktari, and the former CSC Executive Director and current Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation and CSC 2.0 Executive Director RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery.

The event is hosted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the Special Competitive Studies Project, and CSC 2.0.

Read more and watch the conversation here:

https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/06/07/thinking-forward-after-the-nscai-and-csc/

Turkey held its scheduled elections on May 14, with mixed results. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development-led “People’s Alliance” has likely held its parliamentary majority, the presidential election results are still unclear. The polls accurately depicted a close race between President Erdogan and his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. At present, neither candidate appears to have crossed the 50% threshold necessary to clinch the presidency, and thereby triggering a runoff election on May 28.

To discuss what lies ahead, FDD will host a panel featuring Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies and director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Howard Eissenstat, associate professor of Middle East history at St. Lawrence University; and Sibel Oktay, non-resident senior fellow of Public Opinion and Foreign Policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The panel will be moderated by Sinan Ciddi, non-resident senior fellow at FDD and associate professor of national security studies at Marine Corps University.

Brave Ukrainians continue to defend their homeland from the unprovoked, blatantly illegal, and imperialist war being waged by invading Russian troops under the command of Vladimir Putin. Where does the conflict stand? What resources do Ukrainians most need for the expected counteroffensive? Why is support for Ukraine in America’s national interest? What impact will the outcome of this war have on other expansionist regimes?

To discuss these questions and more, FDD hosts an on-the-record conversation with Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova led by FDD Founder and President Clifford D. May.

Auburn University’s McCrary Institute, FDD, and CSC 2.0, hosted a virtual event on the cyber risks in space. The event features former Chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Mike Rogers; former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Sue Gordon; Skycorp CEO Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Steven L. Kwast; CSC 2.0 Executive Director and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery. Moderated by McCrary Institute’s Frank Cilluffo, the conversation discusses the best path forward in addressing cybersecurity challenges unique to space systems, cybersecurity as a tool to support new and emerging space-based missions, and ways to enhance the public-private partnership model with genuinely shared risk management responsibilities.

After twenty years of dominating Turkish politics, Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces an electoral challenge to his hold on power. Turkish law requires Erdogan to hold presidential and parliamentary elections no later than June of this year. Until recently, polls put Erdogan slightly behind his potential challengers. Economic conditions are dire. Complicating matters further, devastating earthquakes last month killed tens of thousands and displaced millions, resulting in public outrage over the government’s politicized response that prioritized limiting the damage to Erdogan’s reputation rather than saving lives.

FDD’s panel discussion explores these issues with Sinan Ciddi as well as Henri Barkey, Cohen professor in international relations at Lehigh University and adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Merve Tahiroglu, Turkey Program director at the Project on Middle East Democracy, with Nate Schenkkan, senior director of research for Freedom House’s work on countering authoritarianism, moderating.

U.S. Naval Forces Central Command is responsible for securing 2.5 million square miles of water area across the wider Middle East. That includes the global chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, and Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, which are vital to international commerce and security. The Islamic Republic of Iran uses many of these waters to smuggle illicit weapons to its terror proxies and undermine freedom of navigation by threatening, harassing, and attacking vessels sailing where international law permits.

FDD hosts NAVCENT Commander Vice Admiral Brad Cooper in conversation with CMPP Senior Director Bradley Bowman. They discuss threats and challenges in the region and how NAVCENT is seeking to leverage cutting-edge technology, partnerships, and expanded military exercises to build an effective combined regional security architecture that deters and defeats aggression.