This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker unpacks February’s surprising jobs report and explains why one weak headline number doesn’t necessarily signal trouble for the economy. With job losses making headlines and uncertainty lingering, many leaders are asking the same question: Is the labor market starting to crack?

Lauren breaks down what’s really behind the data, from temporary healthcare job losses to ongoing labor shortages in key industries like manufacturing and construction. She also explores why wages are still rising and what that means for inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

For business leaders navigating slower growth and persistent inflation, the bigger risk may be something ITR calls “profitless prosperity.” What does that mean for your strategy in 2026?

Are you making decisions based on headlines, or on what the data is actually telling us?