Stronger Jobs Report, Fed Pause Likely, and Global Concerns Rise | Fed Watch by ITR Economics

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the key economic benchmarks shaping business conditions in 2026. Industrial production, employment, capital investment, and consumer spending are all showing improvement, but growth comes with new challenges. As demand returns and competition for labor intensifies, businesses must stay disciplined on margins to win in this cycle. Are you prepared for what the second half of 2026 may bring?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar steps in to unpack how markets are responding to the Fed Chair announcement and what the latest data means for rates, inflation, and demand. With bond yields holding steady and PMI surging to a multi-year high, a key business pain point remains front and center: meaningful rate relief still looks elusive. Connor explains why stable yields do not signal coming cuts, how rising new orders point to renewed demand pressure, and why the housing market faces a longer recovery timeline than many expect.

What do these signals mean for your planning as we move deeper into 2026?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the European economic outlook for 2026, highlighting where growth is returning and where businesses still face pressure. Western Europe is moving through recovery, Eastern Europe is poised to outperform, and business confidence is finally improving across most markets. But inflation dynamics and margin management remain key challenges leaders cannot ignore. What does this mean for companies planning international growth in the year ahead?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a busy week for the Federal Reserve, from the FOMC’s decision to hold interest rates to the surprise announcement of Kevin Warsh as President Trump’s pick for Fed Chair. With markets already uneasy about inflation and the timing of the next rate move, leadership changes at the Fed raise important questions for businesses planning around borrowing costs, capital investment, and economic uncertainty. Get insight into what Warsh’s policy stance could signal for rate cuts, Fed credibility, and the path forward. What should decision-makers be watching most closely right now?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest automotive industry outlook, including why North American light vehicle production is expected to return to growth in 2026 after a difficult 2025. While production and retail sales show improvement, cost pressures and rising auto loan delinquencies present real challenges for industry leaders. How should automotive firms prepare for a slower, more disciplined growth cycle ahead?

This week on Fed Watch, Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines the issue of central bank independence and what it means for today’s financial markets. She breaks down why markets have largely dismissed recent concerns about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and explores the risks that could emerge if interest rate cuts move ahead without support from underlying economic conditions. Lauren also unpacks the inflationary implications and key market signals business leaders should be monitoring. Are you factoring these policy dynamics into your forward-looking strategy?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the global economic outlook for 2026 at a time when geopolitical uncertainty and trade policy changes are creating anxiety for business leaders. Despite the noise, key indicators point to continued global growth, though not without important shifts that could impact your strategy. Which regions are positioned to outperform, and how should businesses think about trade and supply chain risk this year? Watch to understand what matters most for planning in 2026 and beyond. What does this global growth environment mean for your business decisions?

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the delayed December jobs report and explains why softer hiring may not signal economic weakness, highlighting employment as a lagging indicator and the growing divide between sector winners and losers in the labor market. She also examines what the latest data means for the Federal Reserve’s rate path, why borrowing costs continue to diverge from Fed policy, and how renewed discussions around Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could influence mortgage rates, raising important questions for businesses and borrowers navigating ongoing uncertainty.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the 2026 economic outlook after a challenging 2025. Growth is returning across GDP, industrial production, and business investment, but higher labor, electricity, and tariff-related costs threaten margins. Which sectors are positioned to improve, and what should leaders focus on now to stay profitable and prepare for the 2030s?

Check out a Trends Report Free Preview here → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00