ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down why another Fed rate hike may be coming and what the latest Fed minutes signal about the path ahead. But for businesses and consumers facing higher borrowing costs, the federal funds rate is only part of the story.

Lauren examines the sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and the forces pushing long-term interest rates higher, including inflation expectations, rising U.S. government debt, and shifting demand for Treasuries. What could these trends mean for interest rates and borrowing costs heading into 2027?

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This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain discusses the economic outlook for 2027 and why businesses should avoid assuming that the strong growth seen in 2026 will continue at the same pace. Several key benchmarks, including industrial production, capital expenditures, and wholesale trade, are expected to move from accelerating growth to a period of slower expansion.

Taylor explains how this shift could affect business planning, pricing, profit margins, and budgeting decisions. He also highlights potential opportunities in commercial construction, data centers, artificial intelligence, and other high-technology industries that may help offset slower growth elsewhere.

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Receive timely economic insights and analysis from ITR Economics right to your inbox.

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Get forward-looking insights with over 40 Unique Market Forecasts.

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Talk to a Specialist

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a week of mixed economic data and what it could mean for interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

GDP was revised higher, while the latest labor market data showed signs of weakness. For business leaders trying to plan around borrowing costs, hiring, and economic growth, the challenge is separating meaningful trends from short-term noise. Lauren explains why the latest jobs numbers deserve attention, but may not be enough to change the direction of interest rates.

What should businesses be watching as the Fed balances labor market weakness against persistent inflation pressures? Share your thoughts in the comments.

What $40 Trillion in U.S. Debt Means for the 2030 Downturn | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines why the 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, and what rising bond yields could mean for interest rates, borrowing costs, and financial markets. She also discusses hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, stronger economic data, and why persistent inflation may keep pressure on the Fed to raise rates.

Could the bond market be sending the Fed a signal it cannot ignore?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines how AI investment, data center construction, and semiconductor production are driving US economic growth. With many legacy manufacturing markets remaining flat and additional weakness expected in 2027, where can businesses find opportunities to diversify and grow? Tune in for the data shaping the outlook.

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker explains why the Federal Reserve’s latest 25-basis-point rate hike could mark the beginning of a broader rate-raising cycle. With borrowing costs creating challenges for rate-sensitive businesses, Lauren examines persistent inflation, the Fed’s outlook, and the signals leaders should watch when planning for 2027 and beyond.

Is your business prepared for interest rates to move higher?

TT 9.14.26 Audio by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Michael Feuz guest hosts to break down the latest August inflation numbers, shifting rate hike expectations, and what the Fed may do next. With businesses facing uncertainty around borrowing costs, consumer strength, and inflation pressure from AI CapEx, energy prices, tariffs, and money supply growth, Michael explains why a rate hike may not solve the real problem. Watch for a timely look at monetary policy, the bond market, and what leaders should monitor heading into the next Fed decision.

What do you think the Fed should do next?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines why expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike shifted following Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. For business leaders navigating uncertain borrowing costs and weakness in housing and agriculture, Connor breaks down the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target, elevated PCE inflation, and the difference between headline inflation and underlying price pressures. One phrase in the speech may leave the Fed more room than markets expect. Do you think the Fed will raise rates in September?