ITR Economics

2026 Inflation Outlook: Rising Input Costs Squeeze Margins | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines what cooler PCE inflation could mean for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision. He also explores July’s sharp home sales decline and why elevated Treasury yields and mortgage rates continue to squeeze rate-sensitive businesses.

Which inflation measure should Fed policymakers trust when deciding whether to hold or hike rates? Share your perspective in the comments.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains why the outlook for commercial construction is improving as we move toward 2027. While many sectors remain below year-ago levels, leading indicators are strengthening, and ITR Economics expects growth across every commercial construction vertical covered in the Trends Report next year.

Which sectors could see the strongest growth, and what should contractors, suppliers, and businesses serving the industry be planning for now?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines the Treasury’s move to increase buybacks of long-term US bonds as rising yields and mortgage rates put renewed pressure on the housing market.

With single-family housing starts posting a historically sharp June-to-July decline and mortgage rates moving closer to 7%, businesses are facing another reminder of how higher borrowing costs can ripple through the economy. Connor breaks down what the Treasury’s latest intervention could signal, whether its goals are beginning to diverge from the Fed’s, and why the US crossing $40 trillion in national debt deserves attention.

Is this simply a liquidity operation, or an early sign of friction between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve?

Data Center Demand Is Fueling Growth in Power Generation | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar breaks down the latest CPI report and what it could mean for the Fed’s September rate decision. Inflation delivered a “Goldilocks” reading, but for businesses and consumers waiting for clearer direction on interest rates, the outlook remains far from settled.

Connor also examines continued weakness in the housing market, shifting market expectations for the Fed’s next move, and why economic policy uncertainty can make investment decisions even more difficult. Plus, he responds to a viewer’s take on forward guidance and considers whether the Fed can provide greater clarity without signaling its next move.

Do the latest inflation and labor market data give the Fed enough reason to stay on hold in September? Share your take in the comments.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Senior Economist and Consultant Tara Bayke to examine the health of the US consumer. Retail sales continue to grow, but a closer look reveals a widening divide between income groups as essential costs and credit card pressures affect consumers differently. What does this K-shaped economy mean for businesses over the next few years?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines where global industrial production is growing today and why today's strongest-performing economies may not be the best strategic locations for the decade ahead. Learn which regions are expected to improve through 2026, which face increasing challenges, and what global businesses should consider when planning for the 2030s. Could your long-term strategy be focused on the wrong markets?

2025 Webinar "Global Ramifications of the 2030s Depression" → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/global-ramifications-2030s-depression

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar breaks down the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and why Chairman Kevin Warsh says it's time for markets to "play the ball, not the referee." As businesses continue navigating inflation uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and pressure on consumers, what should leaders actually be paying attention to? Connor explains why the Fed is stepping back from forward guidance, what recent GDP data signals about the economy, and what to watch as we head into the fall.

Are markets focused on the right signals, or are they paying too much attention to every word from the Fed?

👍 Like, subscribe, and let us know in the comments: What economic indicator are you watching most closely right now?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains how different sectors are moving through the business cycle and what that means for your business in 2027. While parts of the economy continue to grow, leading indicators suggest conditions are changing. Learn why relying on today's momentum could lead to costly planning mistakes and what businesses should focus on instead. Watch to see what the latest economic signals could mean for your strategy.