This episode centers on the coronavirus (COVID-19) and how the outbreak which originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019 is impacting global freight transportation. Host Chris Caplice sits down with Yossi Sheffi, MIT professor and Chris’ boss at the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics, to discuss how the coronavirus differs from past crises and how the bullwhip effect will likely play out in this scenario. Prof. Sheffi also offers some advice to companies who are looking to manage the coronavirus and other global risks effectively. Chris is then joined by Inam Iyoob for the latest North American truckload market rate trends and forecast which is powered by FMIC.

[0:52] You can purchase a copy of The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage here: https://www.amazon.com/Resilient-Enterprise-Overcoming-Vulnerability-Competitive/dp/0262693496.

[0:55] You can purchase a copy of The Power of Resilience: How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected here: https://www.amazon.com/Power-Resilience-Companies-Manage-Unexpected/dp/0262533634/.

[1:55] If you’re interested in seeing the coronavirus data gathered by Johns Hopkins University, here’s the link: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[6:12] Take a look at Apple's revised press release, acknowledging the impact of the coronavirus on their expected sales performance: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/02/investor-update-on-quarterly-guidance/

[26:15] Grab a free copy of ATRI report, “An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2019 Update” by Dan Murray here: https://truckingresearch.org/2019/11/04/an-analysis-of-the-operational-costs-of-trucking-2019-update/

The Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer with more than 2,200 retail stores across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Each year The Home Depot spends around $2 Billion on domestic transportation services across dedicated fleets, truckload, intermodal, and less-than-truckload, making it one of the largest shippers in the U.S. 

Ron Guzzi (Sr. Manager, Carrier Relations & Sourcing at The Home Depot) has led the company’s domestic transportation sourcing and carrier management efforts for the last decade. In this episode, Ron discusses The Home Depot’s ongoing journey to remain a shipper of choice, and it’s recent initiatives to reduce dwell time and driver detention at vendor facilities.

This episode wraps up with the latest North American truckload market rate trends and forecast powered by FMIC Pulse as well as a discussion on the impact of the coronavirus on the freight industry.

[04:20] Grab of copy of the ATRI driver detention report here: https://truckingresearch.org/2019/09/04/driver-detention-impacts-on-safety-and-productivity/

[22:04] Learn more about how The Home Depot is transforming its flatbed operations here:  https://corporate.homedepot.com/newsroom/supply-chain-unveils-first-flatbed-distribution-center-fdc

[26:44] If you’re interested in seeing the coronavirus infographic by Johns Hopkins University, here’s the link: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) is a leading non-profit research organization dedicated to the safety, efficiency, and productivity of the North American trucking industry. Dan Murray (Senior Vice President) oversees the development of ATRI’s research methodologies and helps distribute and promote their research findings. 

In this episode, host Chris Caplice asks Dan to share insights on two recent ATRI reports:

• Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry — 2019 which summarizes the top-voted issues by drivers and carriers like Driver Shortage, Hours of Service (HOS), Detention, and ELDs

Dan also teases some upcoming research about ATRI’s new safety assessment tool they are developing with the University of Minnesota’s psychology department. And Dan reflects on how shipper and carrier dynamics have evolved over his 25+ year career.  His answer may surprise you!

This episode wraps up with the latest North American truckload market rate trends and forecast powered by FMIC Pulse.

[2:39] Learn more about ATRI and access their free research here: http://www.truckingresearch.org 

[5:14] To download a copy of the 2019 Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry report, visit: https://truckingresearch.org/2019/10/06/critical-issues-in-the-trucking-industry-2019/

[19:10] Grab of copy of the ATRI driver detention report here: https://truckingresearch.org/2019/09/04/driver-detention-impacts-on-safety-and-productivity/

[23:38] Read ATRI’s latest e-commerce study here: https://truckingresearch.org/2019/02/05/e-commerce-impacts-on-the-trucking-industry/

[27:08] To download ATRI’s latest crash predictor report, visit: https://truckingresearch.org/2018/07/31/predicting-truck-crash-involvement-2018-update/

[35:44] Check out articles to learn more about the nuclear insurance settlements buzz Chris references: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/jury-slaps-werner-enterprises-with-405-million-nuclear-verdict-in-fatal-crash & https://www.freightwaves.com/news/nuclear-verdict-kills-540-truck-carrier

[37:19] Learn more in our episode with Alex Scott (Michigan State University): https://freightvine.podbean.com/e/the-impact-of-elds-other-freight-policies-alex-scott/

After nearly a decade as a practitioner at JB Hunt, Kenco Logistics, and IBM, Alex Scott went back to school for his PhD before returning to the world of academia to dig into transportation and policy research as well as teaching. Alex is currently an Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University. 

To start their discussion Chris Caplice asks Alex to share his key takeaways from three of his previous research projects based on actual datasets (versus theory). The duo then digs into Alex’s latest award-winning research on the results of the ELD mandate which went into effect in December 2017, “Did the Electronic Logging Device Mandate Reduce Accidents?” In this study, Alex and his research partners dug into the FMCSA numbers since the mandate took effect to understand if driver safety had improved (or not). Chris then asks for Alex’s take on the proposed HOS rule changes and how he thinks drivers will react. At the end, Alex shares some of his new research topics.

This episode wraps up with the latest North American truckload market rate trends and forecast powered by FMIC Pulse.

[7:57] Here’s Alex’s research on “Service Refusals in Supply Chains: Drivers and Deterrents of Freight Rejection”: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309821034_Service_Refusals_in_Supply_Chains_Drivers_and_Deterrents_of_Freight_Rejection

[8:41] Analysis by Chris and Matt Harding: https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/33322

[10:30] Here’s Alex’s research on “Carrier Bidding Behavior in Truckload Spot Auctions”: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328469692_Carrier_Bidding_Behavior_in_Truckload_Spot_Auctions 

[11:38] Here’s Alex’s research on “The value of information sharing for truckload shippers”: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282376833_The_value_of_information_sharing_for_truckload_shippers

[13:18] Read Alex’s award-winning research on the ELD mandate results entitled “Did the Electronic Logging Device Mandate Reduce Accidents?” here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330425892_Did_the_Electronic_Logging_Device_Mandate_Reduce_Accidents

[16:51] 2009 Study of FMCSA Data: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330425892_Did_the_Electronic_Logging_Device_Mandate_Reduce_Accidents 

[19:15] This blog explains our take on the proposed HOS rule changes announced in 2019: https://www.chainalytics.com/proposed-hos-change-winners-and-losers/

This bonus episode serves as your Freightvine podcast backstage pass — from exclusive, never-heard-before clips to some hilarious stumbles and outtakes from 2019! You will hear from a number of previous guests, including: Craig Fuller (CEO, FreightWaves), Kristen Monaco (Associate Commissioner of Compensation and Working Conditions, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), David Correll (Research Scientist & Lecturer, MIT), and Andy Butler (Associate Director, North America Transportation Purchases, Procter & Gamble). Be sure to stick around until the very end to hear our first Freightvine blooper reel.

Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves, has a long and storied history in the trucking industry. He starts this episode by explaining how his career began at US Xpress Enterprises in the mid-1990s, a company which was founded by his father in 1985. After a decade there, he started two of his own companies, Transfund$ and TransCard, before launching FreightWaves in 2016. Craig shares that the original vision for FreightWaves was to build a freight futures market (which eventually launched in early 2019), but that the company has expanded into many areas (like media and SaaS) out of necessity and creativity.

Chris Caplice then solicits Craig’s opinions on some of the industry’s biggest questions, including: the future role of brokers/3PLs and the spot market, whether it’s a driver shortage or an efficiency problem, and the possible consolidation of long-haul trucking companies.

This episode wraps up with the latest North American truckload market rate trends and forecast powered by FMIC Pulse.

[7:47] For more information about the Blockchain in Transport Alliance (BiTA), visit https://www.bita.studio/ 

[23:50] To hear what Andy Butler (P&G) shared about being a shipper of choice, listen to this episode: https://freightvine.podbean.com/e/becoming-a-shipper-of-choice-with-empathy-andy-butler/

[25:33] Check out David Correll’s episode here for more on solving the driver shortage: https://freightvine.podbean.com/e/solving-the-driver-shortage-the-value-of-12-minutes-david-correll/

FMIC is getting predictive, and we’re excited to give our Freightvine listeners a sneak peek at the future of transportation benchmarking at Chainalytics.

In this episode, Dr. Chris Caplice (Chief Scientist at Chainalytics & Executive Director of the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics) recaps the origin of the “Model-Based Benchmarking Consortium” which was one of the first large-scale applications of machine learning techniques to understand the underlying drivers of transportation rates. He goes on to briefly explain its evolution over the last 15 years into what we know today as the Freight Market Intelligence Consortium (FMIC).

Chris is joined by Chad Kennedy (Sr. Product Manager, FMIC Pulse at Chainalytics) to discuss the many use cases of FMIC Pulse — our real-time solution for understanding current market dynamics and long-term inflationary views which was introduced in 2017. Chris then lays out what to expect with Chainalytics’ soon-to-be-released freight rate forecasting solution which will include monthly forecasts for Active Contract Rates, Spot Premium Ratio, and New Rate Differential as well as a 15-month forward-looking market estimate. All of this is being launched in early 2020 to Chainalytics’ FMIC members. Wanna join? Email [email protected] to learn more.

In this week’s episode, Chris is joined by a colleague at the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics and fellow Research Scientist, Dr. David Correll. At MIT, Dave leads the FreightLab’s driver initiative which is focused on North American over-the-road truck drivers, and finding ways to increase utilization and profitability while also improving the driver experience. Chris and Dave discuss several research findings related to the alleged “driver shortage,” including Hours of Service (HOS) utilization, day of the week effects, and driver retention tactics. Dave goes on to explain why he believes there is a utilization crisis versus a driver shortage, and how it could be solved by each driver adding just 12 minutes a day. Stay tuned to the end, as Inam Iyoob joins Chris for the latest market update and rate forecast for the North American truckload market.

[0:56] Here’s more information about the FreightLab at MIT: https://ctl.mit.edu/research/current-projects/freightlab

[9:47] Access the 2009 report Predicting truck driver turnover here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554509000210

[11:45] Read David’s article, “Is There a Truck Driver Shortage or a Utilization Crisis?” here: https://medium.com/mitsupplychain/is-there-a-truck-driver-shortage-or-a-capacity-crisis-73a7d7a5bcb

[12:21] Here's the Census Bureau's report on Class A Driver count: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/heavy-and-tractor-trailer-truck-drivers.htm

[12:40] Here's the ATA's 2019 driver shortage report: https://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/News%20and%20Information/Reports%20Trends%20and%20Statistics/ATAs%20Driver%20Shortage%20Report%202019%20with%20cover.pdf

[16:10] Access the 2009 report Predicting truck driver turnover here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554509000210 

[22:54] For more information about the Dock 411 app: https://dock411.com/

[23:06] Listen to the full episode with Bill Driegert (Uber Freight) here: https://www.chainalytics.com/uberization-the-shifting-shipper-carrier-relationship-a-conversation-with-bill-driegert/

[24:59] To participate in the MIT FreightLab Driver Initiative, send an email to [email protected]

Transportation procurement leader Andy Butler (Associate Director, North America Transportation Purchases @ Procter & Gamble) discusses how P&G has leveraged the power of empathy to become a shipper of choice — which is delivering results in both tight and soft freight markets. Andy goes on to explain how the company is partnering with its transportation providers and customers to be the voice of change in the industry. To wrap it up, he discusses how end-to-end supply chain synchronization is the future vision that P&G is working toward, and the journey they’re on to enact this change. (Bonus Q: Chris Caplice asks Andy to share his biggest takeaway from being a Boy Scout.) Inam Iyoob then joins Chris to share the latest market update and rate forecast for the North American Truckload market.

Formally educated as an economist, Dr. Kristen Monaco (Associate Commissioner of Compensation and Working Conditions @ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) has a unique pulse on the U.S. transportation labor market. In this episode, Chris Caplice gets a chance to discuss her latest industry research, including the questions that must be answered before the shift to autonomous vehicles can become reality. Kristen goes on to explain the effect that good, bad, and frictional unemployment has on the driver shortage. Their discussion closes with Kristen giving us all sides of the autonomous trucking phenomenon and walking us through some key takeaways from her past research. Inam Iyoob then joins Chris for this week’s market update and rate forecast.