Fuel For Thought

Tim Armstrong, Tom De Vleesschauwer and Kristen Balasia talk about IHS Markit's CERAWeek which is widely considered to be the most prestigious annual gathering of the global energy community.

Bjoern Huetter, Ali Khalili and Kristen Balasia talk about 2020 year in review around the globe; an unprecedented year for the automotive industry.

Kristen Balasia, Mark Boyadjis and Brian Rhodes talk about the future of technology and CES 2021 virtual event roundup.

IHS Markit projects new light vehicle sales of 83.4 million units globally in 2021, up 9% from a 2020 projection of 76.5 million units, as industry demand levels emerge next year in the wake of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic – especially in major markets. Looking at the U.S. auto demand environment, the sequential rise in sales levels from the April 2020 trough reflects that consumers that were willing, ready and able to purchase a new vehicle did so. While the pace of growth for auto sales flattened out after September, IHS Markit expects continued growth in auto demand levels in 2021, supported by sustained economic development from better-than-expected news on vaccines and likely economic stimulus. IHS Markit projects US sales volume to reach 16 million units in 2021, up an estimated 10% from the projected 2020 level of approximately 14.5 million units. The pace of sales is anticipated to be stronger in the second half of the year, following the expected widespread availability of the vaccine by summer. I'm Chris Hopson with an IHS Markit Minute.

Part suppliers have their hands full these days. After surviving more than two months of virtually no vehicle output earlier this spring – production in North America has been on a tear. Total North American output should reach 13 million light vehicles – a remarkable achievement. Consumers have re-engaged into the market - now finding that inventory of several popular vehicles to be slimmer than expected. One group feeling the pressure are parts suppliers - dealing with increasing COVID restrictions in many regions are thus having difficulties finding qualified labor to keep up with demand. Absenteeism and employee turnover are at heightened levels. These issues are not just in North America. Low inventories of microchips and semi-conductors from various locations in Asia are causing concern throughout the global industry. Just when the industry should be enjoying a volume revival – there is no rest for the weary. This has been Michael Robinet with an IHS Markit minute.

Electric vehicle production and platform announcements continue to pepper the landscape. EV development has been underway in earnest, and we are at the edges of an explosion in production as a result. IHS Markit forecasts EV global production could rise to 15% of total light-vehicle production in 2027, bringing a wave of new products. With this next phase of EV maturation, development has been focused on vehicles that consumers want. At the same time, publicly available charging and infrastructure networks are improving. The combination of products aligned with consumer uses and demand, more choice and better infrastructure are essential to consumer adoption. However, over the first three quarters of 2020, electric vehicle registrations accounted for only 1.58% of the US light-vehicle market, while the industry is ramping up to support a much higher share of market. Though growth in the coming years will be strong, we may also see near-term production increase faster than consumer demand. I'm Stephanie Brinley and this has been an IHS Markit Minute.

Kristen Balasia, Peter Nagle and Mark Fulthorpe talk about automotive 2021 outlook, diving into the positive influences and uncertainties, and what we can expect in 2021.

As the automotive industry looks to recover lost revenues from the global COVID-19 pandemic, the growing demand for high-tech, shared mobility solutions has become a focal point. Within major markets, IHS Markit forecasts a steady 18 percent compound annual growth rate on vehicle sales for mobility services use in the next 10 years, adding 2.6 million units by 2030. In contrast, vehicle sales for personal-use will see a net loss of 1 million units in the same timeframe. To take advantage of the shifting consumer demand, many automakers are partnering with ride-hailing companies to design and optimize a new type of vehicle for their services. Recently, Chinese carmaker, BYD launched the D1 to exclusively support DiDi's ride-hailing operations in China, earning revenues based on vehicle usage, rather than unit sales. And BYD is not alone. Several other OEMs have launched similar endeavors, proving that the pandemic has forced OEMs to think differently about how vehicles are designed AND how revenues are earned. I'm Mark Boyadjis, with an IHS Markit Minute.

Kristen Balasia, Mike Wall and Sandra Zhou talk about China; the auto industry gets a lift from Chinese consumers and regulators driving growth even as a surge in COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe tempers demand elsewhere.

Investment in electric vehicle manufacturing has been in the news lately, with announcements from General Motors, Ford and FCA, as well as Volkswagen's introduction of the ID.4 which will see production in the US. Daimler, BMW and Honda are also expected to add US EV production by the end of the decade. In 2026, IHS Markit forecasts that about 10% of US light-vehicle production will be electric vehicles, compared with just under 4% in 2019. With expectations for a Democratic president in the White House in January, vehicle emissions regulations may shift to more aggressive targets. Though the government has regulatory and incentive levers which could speed consumer adoption, the trajectory toward EVs is already set, relative to most automaker strategy and long-term investment plans. The increased manufacturing is bringing more models to market, delivering more consumer choice. Increased choice and availability will be as critical to increasing consumer adoption as incentives or regulations. I'm Stephanie Brinley and this has been an IHS Markit Minute.