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Phillip & Eric navigate the strangely subdued landscape of GDC 2025, pondering if there really is such a thing as a free lunch. Chris dials in, wondering if his absence is secretly the key to Eric's roundtable success. 

They dissect the talks, the conference economics, the rise of mobile's respectability, and a guest in economy designer, Charlie Hsu.

In this episode:

• Is the game industry actually shrinking, or just taking a nap? And if Web3 isn't the savior, what's left besides... sweeps?
•  Is GDC just a cleverly disguised wealth transfer from sponsors to developers
• What's the latest "reasonable" pitch for Web3 in games?
• What's the economic model behind those San Francisco walk-up shops overflowing with candy bars right next to the register? High margins? A tourist trap? Something... else

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The best tech firm experimentation seems to offer thousands of button color experiments. Dr.Runge has a better approach, which changes at every game development stage. We debate gaming's broken relationship with science, the proper experimentation framework, and how much you'd bet on yourself to complete Cousera assignments.

Read Dr.Runge's new paper NOW!

Showlinks:
Julian Runge
Gaming Companies Run Thousands of Experiments a Year
Game Data Pros
How to use games to build relationships with your customers

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Pokémon TCG Pocket is one of a handful of games to implement P2P trading on mobile. Yet it sucks. On purpose. As @Eric explains, their game economy needs high sinks to combat hourly sourcing of card packs. Without the nearly 80% trading tax, prices would tend toward $0. However, that's secondary to a UX that is so gimped it makes Friend Codes look seamless by comparison.

We deconstruct Matthew Ball's new State of Gaming report slide by slide (or at least curated slides.) @Chris thinks we're failing to keep pace with inflation, putting the industry at risk, while @Phil wants to know why TikTok is winning at the margin. Is gaming becoming LESS compelling relative to social media?

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Loot boxes have all the markings of a moral panic. Dr.McCaffrey reviewed the emerging literature, and like the research on video game violence, it's destined for methodological malfunction.

We discuss why everything isn't a loot box, the apathetic interest of economists in games, what George R.R. Martin's economic equilibrium teaches us, and how to get more people interested in economics.

Follow Dr.McCaffrey on Twitter [1], see him on video games [2], and read his loot box and A Song of Fire and Ice papers here [3].

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Is game balance bullshit? 

The crew goes toe-to-toe debating Sirland’s Don't Use Math in Balancing Games. Chris emerges from his Roblox hibernation, Eric tells us Street Fighter is more accessible than platform fighters, and Phil goes bonanza for All in Hole. 

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Anti-cheat economics, web3 property rights, Deirdre McCloskey, institutional incentives, Halo UGC, and the if single player games have a natural advantage outside the West. Oh my.

Dr.Jason Arentz finally guest stars, and he's bringing the econ juice, finally striking a 50/50 web3 split on the case. 

Zynga Car Price Experiment: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/zynga-apologizes-for-random-dlc-pricing-experiment

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Economist Dr.Peter G. Klein joins the cast to discuss Why Managers Matter: The Perils of the Bossless Company. We debate Valve's organizational structure, the evidence for manager economic impact, and Sweden's success. 

Read more about Dr.Klein here and find his book below:
https://hankamer.baylor.edu/person/peter-g-klein-0
https://www.amazon.com/Why-Managers-Matter-Bossless-Company/dp/1541751043/

15:37 Why Managers Matter
22:29 CEOs
35:22 Valve

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Phil and Chris return from Asia, and it's gachupon from here in-out. Eric talks vertical progression in single player games, while Chris actually agree on the future of web 2.5. The economics of unions weigh heavily: within or between professions?

The crew finally makes it to THE KING PAPER; Eric and Chris make surprising revalation.

Quantity discounts on a virtual good: The results of a massive pricing experiment at King Digital Entertainment

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Eric develops an economic model to explore or exploit game development decisions, while Phil wants a block-grant style gate process to align incentives. Chris is back at Marvel Snap, and boogies with some new social casino mechanics.

The team reviews a new Call of Duty matchmaking paper with some surprising and revealing data...

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Can a stick of butter keep you sober during high-stakes diplomatic meetings? Eric is sure to tell us. Chris provides a compelling theory for the death of mods, while Phil undergoes a Supercell detox after analyzing Squad Buster's launch. The crew gets back in touch with their microeconomic selves and looks at one of the most interesting explanations for the gender pay gap.

• ONE COHORT AT A TIME: A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON THE DECLINING GENDER PAY GAP