This episode has a slightly different format. I discuss with Klaus Dodds, my co-host, and Mia Bennett of the University of Washington, their new book 'Unfrozen: the fight for the future of the Arctic'. It starts by asking both Mia and Klaus how they got interested in the Arctic and how it is defined. As they note, the Arctic is often defined as those areas north of 66 degrees of latitude (the Arctic circle), where the sun never sets in mid summer and never rises in the depth of winter. Some definitions go down to 60 degrees. The Arctic territory forms part of 8 countries: Russia is the largest with about 50 percent, followed by Canada, then Denmark (Greenland) and the USA, but it also includes Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Together these countries are permanent members of the Arctic council. The Arctic is inhabited by about 4 million people, mostly in Russia, of whom about a million are indigenous peoples, the others are involved in mining, resource exploitation, military, research etc. But other countries, notably India and China have also become interested in the Arctic, and China now has 5 icebreakers and is interested in the potential of the Arctic route for goods transport. What is clear is that the Arctic is under threat in a number of ways, notably from global warming and parts of the Arctic are warming at 3-4 times or more of the global average. This is causing major changes in vegetation, settlement and forms of living from reduction in ice cover. It also has big implications beyond the Arctic in terms of warming waters. The reduction in ice has important geo-political implications with different countries seeing new possibilities. Klaus and Mia suggest there are three major intertwined issues for the Arctic - that it is becoming increasingly climatically and ecologically endangered, that it faces increasing pressure for resource exploitation and it may become the site for more strategic conflict. The arctic is no longer just a remote place for polar bears and explorers. It is increasingly linked into the modern world in many different ways.

Global population changes are complex but it can be argued that many countries, but not all, fall into one of two groups, each with very different problems. First, there are the relatively poor, low income, developing countries with high birth rates and rapidly growing populations.Most sub Saharan African countries fall into this group. Second, there are richer, developed, countries with low birth rates and a generally slow growing, static or even falling population. Many European countries fall into this category and they face problems of shrinking labour force, an ageing population and growing welfare bills for pensions and health care. Not surprisingly there is a growing global trend for people to try to migrate from the first group to the second. Countries in the first group include Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and many other sub-Saharan countries. In many of the these countries over 50% of the population is aged 18 or under. By contrast, in Japan, the country with the oldest population in the world, some 30% of people are now aged 65 or over and many parts of rural Japan are now shrinking villages of the elderly. The birth rate in Japan is now far below replacement rate (2.1 children per woman) and the countries population is continuing to fall. Many European countries are not too far behind. Italy has 22% of its population over 65 and Finland, Greece, Portugal, Germany, Bulgaria, Croatia, France all have over 20%. But one of the least well known but most remarkable countries is China. It currently has a population of 1.3 bn but this has now peaked and is starting to fall. And, as consequence of Mao's one child policy and the subsequent rapid economic growth, very few families have more than one child and China's population is forecast to almost half by the end of the century on current trends. The problem now facing many affluent developed western countries is the falling proportion of economically active people and a growing, ageing, dependant population of retired people. This poses problems both for the cost of care and the supply of care workers and for expenditure on pensions. Not surprisingly, many young people are trying to migrate from the first group of countries to the second, though both Japan and China have relatively little inward migration from overseas.

Global population change is important and it has a distinct geography. But first its important to note some general changes. Global population has increased dramatically over the last 200 years. In 1800 the global population was estimated to be about 1 million. There were high birth rates, no modern medicines or health care, and high death rates. Most people died relatively young if they survived infancy and childhood.

Global population then began to increase quite slowly to about 2 billion by 1925, exactly 100 years ago. Since then, it is increased very rapidly with the developments in living standards, medicines and health care. It reached 3 billion in 1960 and 8.4 billion today. In the last 60 years global population has grown by about one billion every 12-15 years, largely as a result of the reduction in mortality.

People in the less developed world are less likely to die in childhood and people in the developed world are now living much longer. But, and this is an important but, people in the developed world are also having far fewer children. And global population growth is projected to slow and peak at about 10 billion by the end of this century.

But first its important to make two points about the relative population size of different countries. The population of the UK in 2025 is about 70m, almost the same as France. By comparison population of the USA (the third most populous country)  is 350 million – exactly 5 times as big, and the population of China and India (the two most populous  countries in the world) are roughly 1.4 billion –20 times as big.

But the global distribution of population is not static. If we look at the population by continent today, Asia has over 5 bn people. Africa has 1.6bn, North and South America together about 1 billion, Europe 0.75 bn. But if we go back 200 years, the shares were very different. Asia still had most people but Europe was second, and Africa and the Americas had very few people. The transformation has been the shrinkage of Europe’s global population share, the growth of Asia and the Americas and and, since the 1950s, themassive increase in Africa’s share.

Probably most listeners know the India and China are the two biggest countries in the world, by a very large margin. But maybe its a surprise to discover that USA is third. But then it gets more complex. The next biggest countries are all in the developing world, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil – between 200-300m. But then a big group of developing countries between 100-200m: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mexico. Egypt, Phillipines, DR Congo, Vietnam along with two developed countries: Russia and Japan. The majority of rapidly growing countries are in Africa but at the other end, many developed countries are losing population. All this has major geopolitical implications

Geopolitics has a long history but it can be defined as how, where, when and why geographical factors, physical, economic and social influence the influence of political power, the shape of international relations and the strategic decision making of states and other entities, including both private companies and other non state actors. Where and when to invest is increasingly important globally and companies often want to ensure that investments are in relatively safe/politically stable areas. Geopolitics also involves decisions and conflicts over resources - gas, oil, copper, and recently rare earth minerals. The term geopolitics was first used in 1900 by Rudolf Kjellenn a Swedish political scientist but in 1904 Halford Mackinder, a British geographer, university professor and MP wrote an influential paper called 'The Geographical pivot of history' which argued that certain key areas of the world had been historically and politically important for many centuries. Although his choice of area can be queried 120 years later, his general thesis remains influential. Today, geopolitics is as important as ever and it is possible to look at many different parts of the world where there are conflicts between states over borders, oceans and territory. The podcast briefly discusses some of these, including the south China Sea, the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, American and Chinese spheres of influence and the conflicts in the middle east involving Israel, Gaza,Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen and the Gulf states. Geopolitics is of growing importance.

Geopolitics is, as its name suggests, where geography and politics intersect. The geopolitics of food focuses on how food production, trade, and consumption are influenced by and influence political relationships between nations. Traditionally, geopolitics tended to focus on questions of strategic conflicts between states. but in the modern world issues of food security and sustainability have increasingly moved to the fore. This is highlighted by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which had quite major impacts on food supply and prices as the Ukraine has often been seen as one of the major breadbaskets of Europe, producing and exporting large volumes of grain along with sunflower oil and other products, much of which was exported from Odessa and other black sea ports. The Russians initially attempted to block these exports. But, there have been many other conflicts involving food. We look at the Cod Wars between Britain and Iceland from the late 1950s to the mid 1970s and the short but sharp conflict between Canada and Spain over Spanish fishing in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland off Nova Scotia. More recently fishing rights and quotas have been a considerable source of friction between Britain and the EU. But generally food production and security of supply are becoming major issues and there are some countries, particularly the Gulf States, which produce very little of their own food. They are almost entirely dependent on imports of food, and thus at major risk of food insecurity in the future.

This episode follows on from the previous one 'Where does our food come from?' This episode focuses more on food consumption but also touches on food production. Our starting point is the global food supply system from which most people in the developed world now get their food. The main distribution network are the supermarkets which all have integrated food supply chains. This means that whether we shop at Aldi, Lidl, Tesco, Sainsburys, Waitrose, or Asda (Walmart in the US or Carrefour in France, Denner or Migros in Switzerland) we are probably all going to get an all year round supply of fruit and vegetables coming from a wide range of places across the globe. Each of the supermarkets has a team of specialist buyers whose job is to ensure that we are able to get a year round supply of grapes for currently about £2 for half kilo. And a supply of frozen prawns from Thailand, Vietnam, or Honduras. But of course all of this requires long food supply chains, whether by truck within Europe or the USA ory ship or air. But these food production chains (particularly beef) generate considerable C02 as well as nitrogen fertilisers pollution. This raise big questions about the long term sustainability of such food systems. Meanwhile, in many less developed countries, food production causes problems of deforestation, soil erosion and is prone to drought, civil war and other problems. And within the developed countries there are sometimes political protests by farmers who feel they are being undercut, or by concerned citizens who object to some intensive food production processes - chlorinated chicken or hormone feed beef for example. Currently Britain only produces about 54% of the food that we consume which raises questions about food security in the event of any global conflicts if we were forced back just on national food production. .

The geography of food production is an important topic. We all need to eat, and at some times and in some places many people have not had enough to eat - millions of -people have starved. But there are big global variations in where our food comes from, and how it is produced and distributed. Two of the major influences are soil and climate both of which set limits to what can be grown or produced where. The earths climates are generally classified into a number of major types. Climate in Britain is usually classified as temperate maritime with cool wet winters and warm wet summers. But Britain climate varies considerably between the drier east and wetter west and the colder north and warmer south which both influence food production. But globally there are even larger variations between, for example Mediterranean climates with their hot dry summers - which is where we get most of our grapes, wine, olive oil and salad vegetables. Almeria in Spain is a major source - and the Russian steppes and the American prairies. In the past, until the middle of the C19th the food most people ate was locally or nationally produced. There was relatively little global food trade, although there was a long history of wine, olive oil and grain trade in the Mediterranean and major trade of herring in the Baltic and the North Sea. Nor should not forget the luxury trades in spices from South East Asia or sugar from the Caribbean. But it was the developments in refrigeration, canning, railways and steam ships from the mid C19th which really opened up the global food system supplying western countries. But in the less developed part of the world, particularly those parts prone to drought, and hit by climate change are causing major problems hitting livestock herding and subsistence agriculture. All these changes have an effect on what we eat which we consider in the next episode. Subsequently we will look at the geopolitics of food and food security in the modern world.

The recent election of Pope Leo, an American, who had worked most of his life in Peru, replacing Pope Benedict from Argentina, raised debates about whether the new Pope might be from black Africa or South East Asia. It hightlighted the geography of religions. There are an estimated 5.5 billion people in the world with religious beliefs: the three biggest being Christianity, Islam and Hinduism. But these religions, and their believers,. have geographies - internationally, between countries, intra-nationally - within countries, and regionally and locally. Internationally, Christianity is important in Europe, but also in most of Latin America and Phillippines as a result of Spanish and Portugese colonialism. It is also important in USA. Hinduism is largely concentrated in India, but Islam is important not just in the Middle East but in South East Asia in Indonesia and Malaysia. There is a history of religious segregation and conflict. We can see this in Northern Ireland, in India and recently in Myanmar where the Rohinga's have been violently pushed out into Bangladesh. Conflict in Israel and Palestine is also a major issue. There are also geographies of religious sites and pilgrimages, Jerusalem is a classic example but there is Mecca and Medina and other important ones in India. In Britain there has been growth of new Moslem mosques and Hindu temples and of religious schools. The geography of religion is an important issue.

The South China Sea is a region of growing international importance and growing conflict. It occupies an area of about 3.5 million sq km and it is bounded on the north by Southern China and Taiwan, on the east by the Philippines, on the south by Borneo and Malaysia, and on the west by Vietnam. It constitutes the only sea which China has direct access too after it lost direct access to the Pacific ocean and the Sea of Japan as a result of treaties with Russia. The South China sea is characterised by a large number of small islands, reefs and cays (the Paracel Islands offshore Vietnam and south of Hainan, and the Spratley islands in the middle of the SCS many of which are barely above the water lines. But, since 1948 China has claimed sovereignty of many of these islands and reefs through historic fishing claims and it has produced something called the 'Nine dash line' which (shaped rather like a cows tongue) extends south west from Taiwan to embrace almost all of the South China sea, even extending to James Shoal which is just 25 nautical miles north of Brunei. China has become increasingly assertive in its territorial claims and has engaged in extensive island construction by creating artificial islands on reefs some with harbours and airfields. It has also engaged in a number of aggressive maritime activities against Filippino and Vietnamese fishermen. In 2013 the Philippines took China to international arbitration under the UN law of the sea convention UNCLOS to challenge many of China's claims. The result in 2016 was supportive of the Philippines but China (who did not participate in the arbitration refused to accept it. Today, China is one of the two major naval powers and the dominant economic and political power in South East Asia and it views the South China Sea as its own backyard and the conflicts are likely to continue. https://pca-cpa.org/cn/cases/7/

Whatever the arguments about causes, there is no doubt that the world has been getting considerably warmer over the last 50 years and much warmer over the last 20 years. Mean average global temperature has risen by 1.4 degree C over the last 100 years and it has now speeded up and almost all the hottest years in the last 100 years have been in the last 20 years. Mean annual temperatures are now increasing by 0.2C per decade. Recent years have seen rising temperatures in many parts of the world and some places are now becoming almost uninhabitable. But the increase in temperatures has not been geographically even and nor have its effects. The polar regions have been warming much faster than other areas, and as snow and ice cover shrinks so does the ability to reflect sunlight. The permafrost areas of northern Russia and Canada are beginning to thaw. Europe and the Middle East have also warmed fast and some parts of the world are now becoming uninhabitable. This has major consequences in terms of agriculture, social breakdown and mass migration. Global warming also generates warmer oceans and rising sea levels. We are seeing the effects of this in the increase in the number of major hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic hitting the East coast of north America and then Western Europe with consequent flooding. But the real risks are in areas like the Bay of Bengal where tropical cyclones generate massive flooding in low lying Bangladesh. Some Pacific island states are also under considerable threat from rising sea levels as are big cities like London, New York and Shanghai. The costs of global warming are unequally distributed and are being felt most strongly in many of the world's poorer areas like the Sahel belt of Africa where more frequent droughts are displacing millions of people. This is generating arguments for international climate justice.