Geography Matters

The world is undergoing a process of rapid urbanization - the movement of population from rural to urban areas. This is very important because it means that an increasing share of the world's population now live in cities The UN estimated in 2007 that half (50%) the world population now lives in cities and maybe 70%+ by the end of this century. This is a dramatic change from the world of our ancestors which was still overwhelmingly rural. The urban population was still only 30% of the world total in 1950. In China the process has been extremely rapid going from about 15% urban in 1950 to 65%+ in 2025. 75 years ago 85% of China's population lived in rural areas. But although urbanization has speeded up rapidly in recent decades it started a long time ago. It really took off in Britain about 1800 at the start of the industrial revolution During the c19th the population of London rose from 1 million in 1801 to 6.5 million in 1901 and the population of Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Glasgow and other industrial cities rapidly exploded. A similar process took place in the USA in the late c19th and early C20th as cities like New York, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Detroit rapidly expanded. In Europe cities like Paris and Berlin also grew rapidly. But today the rapid urban growth is in the developing world, the Global South, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia where giant mega cities are emerging of over 20 million people cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Delhi, Mexico City and Cairo. Dhaka and Sao Paulo. It is estimated that by 2035 Africa will have 6 cities of over 10 million people with another 17 cities of over 5 million and 100 cities of over 1 million. Africa is the world most rapidly urbanizing region with cities like Dar es Salaam, Kinshasa, Luanda and Addis Ababa among the most rapidly growing. The problem is that while many rural migrants are attracted to the cities by a prospect of jobs, higher income and education, the reality is often very limited. In many rapidly growing there are major problems over the supply of drinking water, sewage and accommodation, and transport systems are often poor or non existent, with residents living 2 hours journey outside the city bycrowded minibus. The continuing urbanization of the world's population offers possibilities and many problems

At the end of November 2025 the US government published America's New National Security Strategy. This punchy, hard hitting, document did not mince its words. The basis of America's new security strategy is very clear:America first. To keep the USA at the forefront of the global economy , technology and defense. It was also clear that the current administration thinks that previous post war American foreign and strategic policy has been misguided and misplaced. It states that America's role is not to be the global proponent of democracy and peace worldwide. Rather, it has to put America's interests first and foremost. There is also a distinct geography to this policy. It is one of hemispheric dominance: the dominance of the western hemisphere stretching west for 180 degrees from the Greenwich Meridian. America sees its sphere of influence being primarily North and South America, stretching up to Greenland but also across the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The primary antagonist is clearly China, Europe is criticized for being weak kneed and Russia is scarcely mentioned except as a potential strategic partner. The Middle East is seen as being now largely sorted out and the rest of the world scarcely gets a mention. American foreign and defence policy under President Trump is reshaping the globe. Here is a link to the document. Its worth a read. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

In this episode we discuss some aspects of how and why geography matters. If we go back a hundred years or so there was an intellectual argument about the extent to which geography determined the future of a country or a region. Those who argued that it did were 'geographical determinists'. A recent example of this is the fascinating 2022 book by Ian Morris entitled 'Geography is Destiny: Britain and the World, a 10,000 Year History'. Put simply, Morris argues that Britain's position as an island on the NW corner of Europe has played a defining role in shaping Britain's history: particularly its rise as a maritime power.

More generally, geographical determinists argued that key aspects of physical geography: latitude, location, temperature, climate, soils, relief etc played a keys role in determining the economic development and history of different parts of the world. Europe developed early because a temperate climate and fertile soils permitted agricultural development etc. Clearly, physical geography does play an important role in shaping the development of different countries and regions. Antarctica has not, and is unlikely to ever, developed as a centre of agricultural production. Similarly with the Sahara, the Atacama and Nabian deserts. You will all be able to think of similar examples.

But there is an important difference between geography determining the development of a country or region and geography influencing, constraining or encouraging development . Klaus and I both argue that geography influences rather than determines (except in very extreme cases). But, that said, it can have very major influences in some cases. In terms of resource development (copper, iron ore, rare earths, oil and gas etc), the development can only take place if the resources are there in the first place. They cannot be conjured up out of thin air. But equally just because a resource is there does not mean that it will be or can be developed. We will pick up this argument in some subsequent episodes

This episode has a slightly different format. I discuss with Klaus Dodds, my co-host, and Mia Bennett of the University of Washington, their new book 'Unfrozen: the fight for the future of the Arctic'. It starts by asking both Mia and Klaus how they got interested in the Arctic and how it is defined. As they note, the Arctic is often defined as those areas north of 66 degrees of latitude (the Arctic circle), where the sun never sets in mid summer and never rises in the depth of winter. Some definitions go down to 60 degrees. The Arctic territory forms part of 8 countries: Russia is the largest with about 50 percent, followed by Canada, then Denmark (Greenland) and the USA, but it also includes Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Together these countries are permanent members of the Arctic council. The Arctic is inhabited by about 4 million people, mostly in Russia, of whom about a million are indigenous peoples, the others are involved in mining, resource exploitation, military, research etc. But other countries, notably India and China have also become interested in the Arctic, and China now has 5 icebreakers and is interested in the potential of the Arctic route for goods transport. What is clear is that the Arctic is under threat in a number of ways, notably from global warming and parts of the Arctic are warming at 3-4 times or more of the global average. This is causing major changes in vegetation, settlement and forms of living from reduction in ice cover. It also has big implications beyond the Arctic in terms of warming waters. The reduction in ice has important geo-political implications with different countries seeing new possibilities. Klaus and Mia suggest there are three major intertwined issues for the Arctic - that it is becoming increasingly climatically and ecologically endangered, that it faces increasing pressure for resource exploitation and it may become the site for more strategic conflict. The arctic is no longer just a remote place for polar bears and explorers. It is increasingly linked into the modern world in many different ways.

Global population changes are complex but it can be argued that many countries, but not all, fall into one of two groups, each with very different problems. First, there are the relatively poor, low income, developing countries with high birth rates and rapidly growing populations.Most sub Saharan African countries fall into this group. Second, there are richer, developed, countries with low birth rates and a generally slow growing, static or even falling population. Many European countries fall into this category and they face problems of shrinking labour force, an ageing population and growing welfare bills for pensions and health care. Not surprisingly there is a growing global trend for people to try to migrate from the first group to the second. Countries in the first group include Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and many other sub-Saharan countries. In many of the these countries over 50% of the population is aged 18 or under. By contrast, in Japan, the country with the oldest population in the world, some 30% of people are now aged 65 or over and many parts of rural Japan are now shrinking villages of the elderly. The birth rate in Japan is now far below replacement rate (2.1 children per woman) and the countries population is continuing to fall. Many European countries are not too far behind. Italy has 22% of its population over 65 and Finland, Greece, Portugal, Germany, Bulgaria, Croatia, France all have over 20%. But one of the least well known but most remarkable countries is China. It currently has a population of 1.3 bn but this has now peaked and is starting to fall. And, as consequence of Mao's one child policy and the subsequent rapid economic growth, very few families have more than one child and China's population is forecast to almost half by the end of the century on current trends. The problem now facing many affluent developed western countries is the falling proportion of economically active people and a growing, ageing, dependant population of retired people. This poses problems both for the cost of care and the supply of care workers and for expenditure on pensions. Not surprisingly, many young people are trying to migrate from the first group of countries to the second, though both Japan and China have relatively little inward migration from overseas.

Global population change is important and it has a distinct geography. But first its important to note some general changes. Global population has increased dramatically over the last 200 years. In 1800 the global population was estimated to be about 1 million. There were high birth rates, no modern medicines or health care, and high death rates. Most people died relatively young if they survived infancy and childhood.

Global population then began to increase quite slowly to about 2 billion by 1925, exactly 100 years ago. Since then, it is increased very rapidly with the developments in living standards, medicines and health care. It reached 3 billion in 1960 and 8.4 billion today. In the last 60 years global population has grown by about one billion every 12-15 years, largely as a result of the reduction in mortality.

People in the less developed world are less likely to die in childhood and people in the developed world are now living much longer. But, and this is an important but, people in the developed world are also having far fewer children. And global population growth is projected to slow and peak at about 10 billion by the end of this century.

But first its important to make two points about the relative population size of different countries. The population of the UK in 2025 is about 70m, almost the same as France. By comparison population of the USA (the third most populous country)  is 350 million – exactly 5 times as big, and the population of China and India (the two most populous  countries in the world) are roughly 1.4 billion –20 times as big.

But the global distribution of population is not static. If we look at the population by continent today, Asia has over 5 bn people. Africa has 1.6bn, North and South America together about 1 billion, Europe 0.75 bn. But if we go back 200 years, the shares were very different. Asia still had most people but Europe was second, and Africa and the Americas had very few people. The transformation has been the shrinkage of Europe’s global population share, the growth of Asia and the Americas and and, since the 1950s, themassive increase in Africa’s share.

Probably most listeners know the India and China are the two biggest countries in the world, by a very large margin. But maybe its a surprise to discover that USA is third. But then it gets more complex. The next biggest countries are all in the developing world, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil – between 200-300m. But then a big group of developing countries between 100-200m: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mexico. Egypt, Phillipines, DR Congo, Vietnam along with two developed countries: Russia and Japan. The majority of rapidly growing countries are in Africa but at the other end, many developed countries are losing population. All this has major geopolitical implications

Geopolitics has a long history but it can be defined as how, where, when and why geographical factors, physical, economic and social influence the influence of political power, the shape of international relations and the strategic decision making of states and other entities, including both private companies and other non state actors. Where and when to invest is increasingly important globally and companies often want to ensure that investments are in relatively safe/politically stable areas. Geopolitics also involves decisions and conflicts over resources - gas, oil, copper, and recently rare earth minerals. The term geopolitics was first used in 1900 by Rudolf Kjellenn a Swedish political scientist but in 1904 Halford Mackinder, a British geographer, university professor and MP wrote an influential paper called 'The Geographical pivot of history' which argued that certain key areas of the world had been historically and politically important for many centuries. Although his choice of area can be queried 120 years later, his general thesis remains influential. Today, geopolitics is as important as ever and it is possible to look at many different parts of the world where there are conflicts between states over borders, oceans and territory. The podcast briefly discusses some of these, including the south China Sea, the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, American and Chinese spheres of influence and the conflicts in the middle east involving Israel, Gaza,Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen and the Gulf states. Geopolitics is of growing importance.

Geopolitics is, as its name suggests, where geography and politics intersect. The geopolitics of food focuses on how food production, trade, and consumption are influenced by and influence political relationships between nations. Traditionally, geopolitics tended to focus on questions of strategic conflicts between states. but in the modern world issues of food security and sustainability have increasingly moved to the fore. This is highlighted by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which had quite major impacts on food supply and prices as the Ukraine has often been seen as one of the major breadbaskets of Europe, producing and exporting large volumes of grain along with sunflower oil and other products, much of which was exported from Odessa and other black sea ports. The Russians initially attempted to block these exports. But, there have been many other conflicts involving food. We look at the Cod Wars between Britain and Iceland from the late 1950s to the mid 1970s and the short but sharp conflict between Canada and Spain over Spanish fishing in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland off Nova Scotia. More recently fishing rights and quotas have been a considerable source of friction between Britain and the EU. But generally food production and security of supply are becoming major issues and there are some countries, particularly the Gulf States, which produce very little of their own food. They are almost entirely dependent on imports of food, and thus at major risk of food insecurity in the future.

This episode follows on from the previous one 'Where does our food come from?' This episode focuses more on food consumption but also touches on food production. Our starting point is the global food supply system from which most people in the developed world now get their food. The main distribution network are the supermarkets which all have integrated food supply chains. This means that whether we shop at Aldi, Lidl, Tesco, Sainsburys, Waitrose, or Asda (Walmart in the US or Carrefour in France, Denner or Migros in Switzerland) we are probably all going to get an all year round supply of fruit and vegetables coming from a wide range of places across the globe. Each of the supermarkets has a team of specialist buyers whose job is to ensure that we are able to get a year round supply of grapes for currently about £2 for half kilo. And a supply of frozen prawns from Thailand, Vietnam, or Honduras. But of course all of this requires long food supply chains, whether by truck within Europe or the USA ory ship or air. But these food production chains (particularly beef) generate considerable C02 as well as nitrogen fertilisers pollution. This raise big questions about the long term sustainability of such food systems. Meanwhile, in many less developed countries, food production causes problems of deforestation, soil erosion and is prone to drought, civil war and other problems. And within the developed countries there are sometimes political protests by farmers who feel they are being undercut, or by concerned citizens who object to some intensive food production processes - chlorinated chicken or hormone feed beef for example. Currently Britain only produces about 54% of the food that we consume which raises questions about food security in the event of any global conflicts if we were forced back just on national food production. .

The geography of food production is an important topic. We all need to eat, and at some times and in some places many people have not had enough to eat - millions of -people have starved. But there are big global variations in where our food comes from, and how it is produced and distributed. Two of the major influences are soil and climate both of which set limits to what can be grown or produced where. The earths climates are generally classified into a number of major types. Climate in Britain is usually classified as temperate maritime with cool wet winters and warm wet summers. But Britain climate varies considerably between the drier east and wetter west and the colder north and warmer south which both influence food production. But globally there are even larger variations between, for example Mediterranean climates with their hot dry summers - which is where we get most of our grapes, wine, olive oil and salad vegetables. Almeria in Spain is a major source - and the Russian steppes and the American prairies. In the past, until the middle of the C19th the food most people ate was locally or nationally produced. There was relatively little global food trade, although there was a long history of wine, olive oil and grain trade in the Mediterranean and major trade of herring in the Baltic and the North Sea. Nor should not forget the luxury trades in spices from South East Asia or sugar from the Caribbean. But it was the developments in refrigeration, canning, railways and steam ships from the mid C19th which really opened up the global food system supplying western countries. But in the less developed part of the world, particularly those parts prone to drought, and hit by climate change are causing major problems hitting livestock herding and subsistence agriculture. All these changes have an effect on what we eat which we consider in the next episode. Subsequently we will look at the geopolitics of food and food security in the modern world.