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Equities cruise higher, back within breathing distance of record highs. But FX doesn’t play ball – yen climbs, commodity currencies underperform. Euro headed for trouble amid high infections and growth worries. Today: US inflation data coming up and earnings season resumes.

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White House bumps stimulus offer to $1.8 trillion, stock market cheers. Kudlow hints offer could be raised further, keeping optimism alive. Dollar slides amid renewed deficit concerns, gold capitalizes. ECB chief economist prepares the ground for more easing.

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Trump flip-flops on stimulus bill, reviving hopes of pre-election fiscal boost. But stocks up only moderately amid caution about talks and worries about global recovery. Dollar drifts lower, loonie soars ahead of jobs data as oil turns bullish/

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It’s been a wild week for global markets, which defied the gloom after President Trump halted the negotiations for another relief package to focus instead on the rising odds of a decisive Biden victory that could bring much greater stimulus after the election. This will likely remain the dominant theme for the dollar and equities for now, with economic data being overshadowed by incoming election polls. Meanwhile, the earnings season resumes, Brexit talks continue, and it seems the second presidential debate will be delayed.

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Stimulus deal not dead yet but confusion about size and timing keeps risk appetite in check. Wall Street closes at one-month high as investors warm up to idea of Biden win. Fed minutes lift Treasury yields but dollar sold off on improved sentiment. Kiwi stabilizes after plunging on fresh negative rates speculation.

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Trump halts stimulus negotiations with Democrats, sends stocks spinning lower. But losses cut short as Trump calls for standalone relief bills. Dollar comes off highs, eyes FOMC minutes for fresh policy clues.

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Trump is discharged from hospital but question marks remain about his health. US fiscal stimulus edging closer but no deal yet. Dollar firms slightly, equities subdued as road ahead still foggy.

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Sentiment recovers on signs stimulus deal is still in play. Stocks rebound alongside crude oil, Japanese yen and gold retreat. Markets to stay focused on ultimate game of ‘Deal or No Deal’. Coming up: ISM manufacturing and RBA policy decision.

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September turned out to be a rough month for equities but a good one for haven currencies as reality caught up with a runaway market. As we head into October, that heightened sense of caution looks set to prevail for a while longer amid intensifying anxiety about the US election and doubts
about the sustainability of the global recovery. With not a lot on the economic agenda for the next seven days, jittery traders will be hoping that policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will flag further monetary easing when the minutes of the Fed’s and ECB’s September meetings are published.

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Equities sink, dollar jumps as President Trump gets coronavirus. How does this affect election dynamics? Is Biden bad for markets? Sterling trades like a pinball machine amid conflicting Brexit headlines. US jobs report is the main event today, European inflation data too.

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