Gold is hovering near record highs, the market is begging for a rate cut, and AI is reshaping every corner of the economy. But are investors seeing the full picture? Amber sits down with Bipan Rai, Managing Director, Head of ETF & Alternatives Strategy at BMO Global Asset Management  for an unfiltered macro conversation at a moment when investors are looking for answers and clarity.

Bipan breaks down why markets abruptly priced in an aggressive December Fed cut despite an unclear jobs picture distorted by the U.S. government shutdown. He also explains why political pressure on the Federal Reserve is becoming impossible to ignore and how easily a poorly timed cut could become a policy mistake.

AI becomes the first major theme of the conversation. Bipan explains why the broad AI beta trade is ending and how debt financed spending is starting to separate real winners from firms with stretched balance sheets. The market may finally be waking up to these differences and he argues that this shift toward a more selective environment is actually a sign of long term health.

Gold is the other force that has defined 2025. Bipan breaks down why the metal’s record run has been powered mostly by retail and institutional ETF flows rather than central banks and why gold’s pause at the top is not a sign the move is over. He goes through the supply and demand math and explains why he still sees a path to gold reaching 4500 by mid 2026.

They also dig into Canada’s massive fiscal push, the USMCA wildcard, the mortgage renewal wall, and why global infrastructure spending is becoming one of the most durable multi-year investment themes.

In Pro Picks, Bipan brings three ETF ideas tied directly to the macro forces shaping markets right now. He starts with the BMO Gold Bullion ETF (ZGLD), which offers pure exposure to gold as it hovers near record levels. He then introduces the BMO Gold Bullion Covered Call Spread ETF (ZWGD), a strategy built to maintain upside participation in gold while generating meaningful yield by selling call spreads. And for investors looking to position for global fiscal stimulus, he highlights the BMO Global Infrastructure Fund ETF (BGIF), a portfolio of essential infrastructure exposure from pipelines to utilities to communication towers benefiting from governments racing to upgrade aging systems.

Timestamps
00:00 Show intro
02:00 Bipan’s view on rates
05:00 Thinking about U.S. rates from a political lens and the risk of a policy misstep
08:40 Chaos within the Fed & missing data
13:00 Why were markets so resilient this year? Especially outside of the U.S. 

16:30 AI, exposure and exceptions for 2026 

19:50 The big gold rally, retail & institutional investors and outlook for next year
26:20 The interplay between the USD and commodities
29:45 The Bank of Canada, tariffs and the Canadian economy
32:20 The Federal budget & fiscal policy
36:20 Bipan’s Pro Picks (ZGLD, ZWGD, BGIF) 

Sponsors

For 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.

Presented by BMO ETFs. With tools like the ETF Compare Tool and Market Insights, you can easily identify ETFs that hold your favourite stocks, match your risk tolerance, and align with your investment goals. To explore these tools, head to www.bmoetfs.com and check out the Tools section.

Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial.  Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information.

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DISCLAIMERS 

The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.

In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.

Contact: [email protected]

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