Handelsbanken Insights Economic Update

With developments from the Middle East still emerging at time of writing, our economics experts James Sproule, Johan Löf and Daniel Mahoney give their latest analysis on how markets and central banks are responding to events over there, including reaction to the Bank of England's unexpected unanimous decision to hold interest rates.

And listen in to find out what happens when a story breaks during recording...

All in a specially-extended edition.

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The Bank of England will announce its decision on UK interest rates this week, in the shadow of continuing conflict in the Middle East.

Our UK Chief Economist James Sproule joins Sonia Rothwell to unpack the implications.

And following news of flat month-on-month GDP figures for January, where does that leave the UK economy as it faces the effects of the Iran war?

All in under 15 minutes. 

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Handelsbanken Research

War in the Middle East – macro scenarios

Just over one week from the start of the Iranian conflict and although things are slightly clearer, it’s a fast-moving situation. 

⁠Johan Löf⁠ and ⁠James Sproule join Sonia Rothwell to give their reaction to weekend developments in the conflict, such as a spike in the price of oil, and to explain how they will affect:

📊 Interest rates

📊 Inflation

📊 Growth

Plus, James explains why upcoming UK GDP figures are still relevant despite the recent market volatility.

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Global Head of Forecasting Johan Löf and UK Chief Economist James Sproule join Sonia Rothwell to explain how the weekend's air strikes on Iran are already affecting global trade.

And in Spring Statement week, James looks at the latest consumer confidence figures, a key indicator for the health of the UK economy.

All in under 15 minutes.

🔗 Read our Macro Comment on the effects of the latest crisis in the middle east:

In the latest edition of our weekly economics podcast with ⁠Daniel Mahoney⁠, ⁠Johan Löf⁠ and ⁠James Sproule we discuss:

🔔 US Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs

🔔 Latest UK data including wage inflation and retail sales

🔔 An alternative vision for the UK's fiscal framework.

All in under 15 minutes.

James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney review the latest GDP figures, and Dan shares the findings of our new research looking at how political uncertainty in the UK could hit the outlook for interest rates.

Plus, why bad weather can rain on the UK economy.

All in under 15 minutes.

💡 Read our report: "UK political risk moves from help to hindrance"

Daniel Mahoney and James Sproule unpick the latest Bank of England rates decision following a surprise pivot by the MPC.

Plus, has a recent report rattled markets by suggesting the chancellor has run out of "fiscal headroom"?

And following the departure of the Downing St Chief of Staff, is political risk for UK assets weighing on markets?

All in under 15 minutes.

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Kevin Warsh is President Trump's nominee as Fed chair - Daniel Mahoney and our Global Head of Forecasting Johan Löf discuss what the markets made of the choice. And UK Chief Economist James Sproule looks at residential property prices and shares our prediction for this week's interest rates decision.

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Join UK Chief Economist James Sproule and our Global Head of Forecasting Johan Löf as they reveal our expectations for the world's economy at the start of 2026.

• Global recovery loading...but risks still loom
• Improving sentiment supports consumption and investment beyond AI and defence
• The outlook for interest rates in the US and Europe.

And UK Senior Economist Daniel Mahoney offers 3 potential scenarios for how AI could affect the global economy.

🖱️ Download the Global Macro Forecast - The Economy Reboots

Ahead of the release of our Global Macro Forecast, James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney pull out some of the key predictions about the UK's economic path in 2026.

All in under 15 minutes.

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