The declining birth rate has come for most advanced countries, and the US is no exception. Now, we are starting to see what a labor market reshaped by years of low fertility looks like and what the future may hold. 

Ron Hetrick of Emsi and Rob Sentz, formerly of Emsi, joined me to discuss their report on what they’re calling a “sansdemic” — literally, “without people” — labor market. They focused on how this low fertility will affect the economy and what, if anything, the government can and should do in response to these developments.

Show notes:

What to expect when no one’s expecting

Emsi 

Emsi report

On the strong labor market before the pandemic 

On the retirement of boomers

On the lower engagement with the workforce among some Americans

On the April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report

On the great wealth transfer  

On women in the labor force 

On the declining birth rate within the US

On the issues with prime-age men  

National Bureau of Economic Research video games study 

On the young people who need jobs  

On the tight labor market today

On the coming lack of work  

On why automation won’t take your job  

CGP Grey video about automation 

Brent Orrell on the labor shortage 

On the Japanese birth rate 

Helping workers transition to new careers has taken on new importance during the COVID-19 recovery. This has led to special attention being given to worker transition systems and the existing inadequacies in our current programs, especially when compared to those from other countries. 

Rachel Lipson and David Deming recently wrote an AEI report that provides an overview of what we know about the opportunities and challenges in reforming worker transition programs. I was pleased to invite them and Visiting Fellow Mason Bishop for a discussion about these issues and where policymakers should go from here. This episode of “Hardly Working” is a recording of that discussion. 

Show notes:

The search for stability: A review of worker transitions  

Alienated America: Why Some Places Thrive While Others Collapse

Men Without Work: America's Invisible Crisis

Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

Rachel Lipson’s website

David Deming’s website

Rachel Lipson’s presentation

For America’s workforce, the past year has been, if not the worst of times, certainly one of the most challenging in the nation’s history. Pandemic lockdowns have been associated with not only burnout and stress but also the discovery of the potential benefits of remote work. Laurel Farrer, a remote work consultant and strategist, joined us on “Hardly Working” to explain how the pandemic has accelerated a transition that was already underway and how to distinguish between the challenges of remote work and the problems created by the pandemic. 

Mentioned during the show: 

Chronicle of the Black Death

Laurel Farrer’s website

Defining virtual work jobs: Here's what each term means

Infographic: The impact of remote working on talent acquisition

Distribute consulting

Remote work for economic development: A conversation with Laurel Farrer   

On remote work and social isolation

On work from home and change management

On remote work and its effect on operations

On remote work and diversity

The environmental benefits of remote working   

On how remote working is changing attitudes

On managing remote workers  

On remote work and equity

On why remote work (as practiced) is illegal

Legal problems with remote work

On permanent remote work

On why hybrid teams are hard to get right

On employees leaving jobs mandating in-person work

On social concerns and remote work

Job Corps is a program that dates to President Lyndon B. Johnson’s War on Poverty. The initial goal — help young people develop the skills they need to succeed in the workforce — was laudable. However, as tends to happen with government programs, the results have fallen short of the vision.

On this episode of “Hardly Working,” I’m joined by Anne Kim, who listeners may recognize from her first appearanceon the show. Kim talked about a recent article she wrote for Washington Monthly looking at the promise of Job Corps and the disappointment it has left in its wake. 

Show Notes:

Anne Kim’s first appearance on ‘Hardly Working’

Anne Kim’s essay in Washington Monthly 

Anne Kim’s book

George Foreman repaying Job Corp 

On Job Corps not working

Past Job Corps audits (1, 2)

Job Corps handbook

Mathematica Job Corps evaluation

2018 Job Corps audit 

On why doing nothing can be better than doing something

YearUp

On the wrong people benefiting from Job Corps

Job Corps

Philadelphia Youth Network

Minding our workforce: The role of noncognitive skills in career successEconomic Mobility Pathways (EMPath)

On Job Corps trouble in COVID-19 times

Young workers hit hard by the COVID-19 economy: Workers age 16–24 face high unemployment and an uncertain future

On Young people’s skills gap

Problems with millennial generation coming out of 2008 recession

Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash all represent a new kind of company — one that seeks to connect individual workers to fluid market demands. These electronic gig networks have not only spread prosperity but also made it clear how important people’s talents are to the economy as a whole. They also hold promise in providing people with ways to develop new skills and business opportunities and to become their own bosses rather than working for someone else.

But the gig economy is imperfect and has uncertainties regarding paychecks and health care. Dynamism, and the mobility and opportunity it provides, has always been a hallmark of a US economy that has delivered unprecedented wealth and well-being to more people than ever before in human history. How do we retain this dynamism without leaving ever larger numbers of workers exposed to unpredictable economic trends and events?

To help understand some of these trade-offs and how to maximize the benefits of the gig economy, we’re joined by Liya Palagashvili of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Palagashvili has published several new papers looking at women in the gig economy, the importance of this sector during and after the pandemic, and what the future of gig economy regulation might look like.

Show notes: 

Employee vs. independent worker: A framework for understanding work differences by Liya Palagashvili and Paola Suarez

Women as independent workers in the gig economy by Liya Palagashvili and Paola Suarez

Claudia Goldin

A grand gender convergence: Its last chapter by Claudia Goldin

Independent contractors in the US: New trends from 15 years of administrative tax data by Katherine Lim et al.

Startup innovation: The role of regulation in entrepreneurship by Liya Palagashvili

ABC Test | Wex | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute 

Freelancing in America 2019

New Upwork study finds 36 percent of the US workforce freelance amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Liya Palagashvili’s website

Liya Palagashvili’s Mercatus Center website

Liya Palagashvili’s Twitter

The liberal arts have been having a rough time. The left tends to see them as part and parcel of a racist system that must be overthrown, and the right sees them as either a waste of time or part of the woke industrial complex. All this leads us to ask: Are they doomed? Should they be?

This week, I sat down with Ted Hadzi-Antich of the Great Questions Foundation for a conversation about the essential role the liberal arts and “great books” play in personal formation, career success, and long-term happiness.

Show Notes:

St John’s College

Plato’s Republic

Baruch Spinoza

Niccolò Machiavelli

Austin Community College

University of Strasbourg

Allegory of the Cave

Great Questions Foundation

AEI STEM report

David Deming social skills report

Ramayana

Sundiata

Euclid’s Elements

Teagle Foundation

Nontechnical skills — communication, creativity, and teamwork — are important to career success. Unfortunately, they often aren’t well-defined, and we have trouble “teaching” them in a classroom. David Deming of the Malcom Wiener Center on Social Policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government has spent several years researching the role noncognitive and nontechnical skills play in workforce success.

On this episode of “Hardly Working,” I sat down with Deming to learn more about his career and the impact of job outcomes. He also spoke about the launch and development of the new Harvard Skills Lab and how state and local workforce agencies, training organizations, community colleges, and others can gain access to more information about what works in workforce preparation.  

 Items mentioned during the podcast:

STEM without fruit: How noncognitive skills improve workforce outcomes

Early childhood intervention and life-cycle skill development: Evidence from Head Start

Malcom Wiener Center on Social Policy

“The Gardener and the Carpenter: What the New Science of Child Development Tells Us About the Relationship Between Parents and Children”

Harvard Project on Workforce

Harvard Skills Lab

David Deming’s 2017 paper on noncognitive skills

David Deming’s 2020 paper on team players

Community of practice webinar

David Deming’s Twitter

David Deming’s personal website

Scholars mentioned during the podcast:

Susan Dynarski

Lawrence Katz

David Autor

Remote work went from niche to mainstream due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A practice that was initially exclusive became the new normal for much of the white-collar workforce. Businesses and employees may not be keen to go back to the way things used to be.  

This episode of “Hardly Working” is a companion episode to the one that ran two weeks ago and contains the second half of AEI’s remote work panel discussion from last year. We finish the conversation by looking at the pluses and minuses of life in the home office and how working from home is affecting employers and employees. 

Remote work exploded in popularity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A practice previously used by a fraction of the workforce suddenly became the new normal for many white-collar workers. Many businesses have already suggested they may never return to the "old normal."

In this episode of "Hardly Working," we look at the pluses and minuses of life in the home office and how working from home is affecting employers and employees. It is a two-part conversation so stay tuned for the next episode to hear it all.

Of all the things we take for granted, parental love is pretty high on the list, and yet few things are as important in setting our expectations and opportunities in life. But what happens when a child can’t depend on his or her parents? This is the story of Alexis and Justin Black, two young adults who grew up in the nation’s foster care system, and how, as young adults, they have overcome traumas of abandonment, abuse, and neglect to build a more hopeful life together.

Alexis (who was my student in AEI’s Summer Honors Program) and Justin joined me for this episode of “Hardly Working” to discuss their upbringing; what families, community, and government need to do to better help foster and at-risk youth; and their recent book, “Redefining Normal: How Two Foster Kids Beat the Odds and Discovered Healing, Happiness, and Love” (Global Perspectives Publishing, 2020).