If you're like us, you've been checking the FiveThirtyEight election forecast like it's a weather report before a hurricane. This week, Donald Trump's chance of victory in the presidential race went from 15 percent to over 30 percent, causing much anxiety for Democrats. But how serious is the swing? Harry Enten is the senior political writer for FiveThirtyEight and a frequent Gist guest. For the Spiel, why Hillary Clinton should own her terrible comic timing.

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